ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

The NHC has made their bed and lied in it. Either they will look like geniuses, or this will become one of the greatest forecasting fails in recent memory. With models all over the place, they should have played it safe initially, but instead chose west.

[Kingarabian]

The NHC follows the Euro Solution.

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hmmm....the NHC joins the EURO....I think that pretty much puts the GFS talk to rest..

UKMET started the trend, CMC , NOGAPS, NAM, and then the EURO followed. When in doubt go with your biggest gun...

It must be very discomforting to see the GFS do what it's doing now for the NHC. Even if it's ensembles are leaning west as well.

[Evil Jeremy]

The NHC follows the Euro Solution.
UKMET started the trend, CMC , NOGAPS, NAM, and then the EURO followed. When in doubt go with your biggest gun...

But CMC has backed off that train, and the NAM and NOGAPS are pretty worthless. They you have the GFS and GFDL on the other side. It's not as one sided as you make it out to be.

[AHS2011]

Expect a few changes from the NHC on the 11 P.M. E.S.T. update.

care to tell us what those might be?

I meant adjustments to the wind speed forecast, it might be adjusted to hurricane status by Thursday or Friday.

[bella_may]

Expect a few changes from the NHC on the 11 P.M. E.S.T. update.

Yes I think so too. And it wouldn't be this first time the nhc has completely shifted its cone

[Dave]

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC follows the Euro Solution.
UKMET started the trend, CMC , NOGAPS, NAM, and then the EURO followed. When in doubt go with your biggest gun...

But CMC has backed off that train, and the NAM and NOGAPS are pretty worthless. They you have the GFS and GFDL on the other side. It's not as one sided as you make it out to be.

Agreed plus TVCN as well which cannot be ruled out.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wonder what will happen if this storm goes east what will everyone say

The King is dead.

[KWT]

The ECM ensemble looks faster than the operational run as well from looking at the average. Good agreement though there is some sort of cluster to the east looking at the way the isobars extend eastwards towards Florida slightly as well.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty pathetic how CNN has NOTHING on this potential Hurricane threat.

Well, for starters, Debby just officially formed. Plus it is the weekend. And while many of us here believe that there is a hurricane threat, the NHC forecast doesn't bring it to hurricane intensity all the way out to Thursday.

They're not going to over-react to a 50 mph tropical storm days from landfall.

Not over-react or anything... This is a very a large system and the NHC has mentioned it can move faster than forecasted. Doesn't hurt to have a link on your main page .

[Rgv20]

Yeah I most def. think the NHC will back off from a sharp west forecast. Maybe a bit WNW?

Not with that High in place, it should move due west and even maybe a bit of WSW. by Wednesday it could start moving WNW when the High is forecast to weaken a little bit.

[psyclone]

The NHC has made their bed and lied in it. Either they will look like geniuses, or this will become one of the greatest forecasting fails in recent memory. With models all over the place, they should have played it safe initially, but instead chose west.

Well they had to make a call. I sure wouldn't bet against them. If it turns out to be wrong there's plenty of time to change things as warranted. you could outrun this thing on a rascal scooter so no worries.

[Nimbus]

What *we* are currently watching is an elongated system which is under southerly shear from an ULL in the western gulf. NHC must have some data indicating the ULL is starting to weaken since that would leave the steering in the hands of the building high to the north.

Glad the system is staying elongated but if high pressure builds in there might be time for her to stack up and intensify in a low shear environment. Would have been better if she just slogged ashore up in Alabama as a weak TS.

I would think they were jumping the gun if they said the final WNW hook was going to be Houston, my guess would be closer to Corpus but if it sinks far enough south it might even be Brownsville.

[pwrdog]

The NHC has made their bed and lied in it. Either they will look like geniuses, or this will become one of the greatest forecasting fails in recent memory. With models all over the place, they should have played it safe initially, but instead chose west.

And what would safe be.. North..?

[CrazyC83]

No matter what, this was a forecasting nightmare for the NHC with two distinct camps.

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC has made their bed and lied in it. Either they will look like geniuses, or this will become one of the greatest forecasting fails in recent memory. With models all over the place, they should have played it safe initially, but instead chose west.

And what would safe be.. North..?

Safe would been a circle, which has no landfall, therefore takes no risks.

[tolakram]

Have some of you all read the discussions? One of the primary reasons they went west is because so many of the GFS ensemble members went west. NHC is a collection of some of the best hurricane forecasters the are ...

so ..

It will be extremely interesting to watch Debbie's progression over the next few days.

[Tireman4]

Maybe, just maybe, the folks at the NHC know more than normal folks ( who are not meteorologists..amateur and otherwise), like me ( who know nothing about nothing..lol, do as far as forecasting and such. There might be a good reason behind all this that we are not privy too. Just my opinion. I trust they know what they are doing. They do have the education and experience behind them.




The he above post and any post by Tireman4 is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah I most def. think the NHC will back off from a sharp west forecast. Maybe a bit WNW?

Not with that High in place, it should move due west and even maybe a bit of WSW. by Wednesday it could start moving WNW when the High is forecast to weaken a little bit.

Agreed. Except I thought the CMC forecasted the high to weaken faster..

[Janie2006]

I'd like to see some reasoning behind this idea that NHC will significantly shift *anything* by 11 pm. I don't see that happening unless something changes radically in the interval....and why should that happen? Euro and GFS are sticking to their guns.