ATL: ISAAC - Models

[JPmia]

That is quite a good consensus between the models. the euro is not on there but its far to the west compared to these.

Will someon please ask SFWMD to include the EURO and their ensembles?? lol .. i wonder if there is some sort of copyright issue or something like that.

[Aric Dunn]

repeating here.....we all know Isaac is having issues with competing centers or center relos.....look at the EURO from 24- 72hr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


look familair?

Yep, center relocation talk makes EURO look damn good IMO.

it wont change.

[KWT]

Yes that is a tight consensus Aric, the ECM really is a good deal to the left of those models. Its hard to ever totally dismiss the ECM however given its track record over the years, even if its not been quite so good thus far this year.

[hcane27]

I know a site that does ...

[southerngale]

I know a site that does ...

A site that does what? I think you hit submit too soon.

[Stormcenter]

The EURO has not had a stellar season so far. IMO

[Weatherfreak000]

Aric, how can you make such a claim when pro mets are discussing it? You're a mod I expect impartial unbiased conversation from mods, explain to me please why you'd make that claim please.

[Mouton]

That is quite a good consensus between the models. the euro is not on there but its far to the west compared to these.

Will someon please ask SFWMD to include the EURO and their ensembles?? lol .. i wonder if there is some sort of copyright issue or something like that.

I think the affect the the Euro can be seen in the TVCN and why it does that crazy south west dive late in the period....some of the consensus models to the east which form that model do not go out as far as the EURO so the weighting of it becomes more significant.

[JPmia]

Aric, how can you make such a claim when pro mets are discussing it? You're a mod I expect impartial unbiased conversation from mods, explain to me please why you'd make that claim please.

My guess is that if there is a weakness in the ridge up there along the north Gulf coast or over Florida then it doesn't matter where the center is at the moment because it will eventually feel it and make the turn NW and the northerly toward the weakness?

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +126



12z HWRF Loop Not looking pretty for the Peninsula

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[thetruesms]

Yep, center relocation talk makes EURO look damn good IMO.

Yes, but bear in mind that the GFS is unlikely to be able to explicitly resolve center relocations, so it's not really fair to ask it to do that.

Will someon please ask SFWMD to include the EURO and their ensembles?? lol .. i wonder if there is some sort of copyright issue or something like that.

Yes, actually. ECMWF does not make their full datasets freely available. You have to pay for vortex tracking, and that's why you won't see it on any public spaghetti plots.

I know a site that does ...

You do? (I'm assuming this is in reference to the Euro) Subscription or freely available? If free, I'd say please link it, but if ECMWF finds out they'll get in trouble, so maybe you shouldn't. If it's behind a paywall, that's probably the explanation

[KWT]

Thats just about the weakest run I've seen from the HWRF for a while, but it does make sense if this system does take a longer run over land.

[Bocadude85]

Aric, how can you make such a claim when pro mets are discussing it? You're a mod I expect impartial unbiased conversation from mods, explain to me please why you'd make that claim please.

Care to explain why you think the Euro is right and all the other models are wrong? The HWRF keeps this weak and it still ends up off the coast of S.Fla

[Stormlover2012]

Hwrf isn't good with upper levels andetc

[OuterBanker]

I'm just glad that no models send it up our way now.
Of course I said that about Irene last year too.

[adam0983]

Lets focus on the GFS Model which has been the best model this year and with Isaac. The Euro model is unreliable why don't we talk about the GFS Model, The Nogaps Model, The GFDL Model, and HWRF Model all these models put Issac near Florida. Isaac is looking much better organized this afternoon.

[KWT]

You guys still aren't exactly safe up in the Carolinas, the chances according to the models are going down but when have a situation where a system is due to come north, you never can be totally sure!

[jlauderdal]

Lets focus on the GFS Model which has been the best model this year and with Isaac. The Euro model is unreliable why don't we talk about the GFS Model, The Nogaps Model, The GFDL Model, and HWRF Model all these models put Issac near Florida. Isaac is looking much better organized this afternoon.

The euro has a very good history, just because tom brady has a few bad games you would never go into the next game feeling safe on defense.

[KWT]

The other thing to mention is the HWRF is well known for having a right bias, I dare say if the HWRF developed a stronger system it'd show a landfall much further north.

[Jevo]

Lets focus on the GFS Model which has been the best model this year and with Isaac. The Euro model is unreliable why don't we talk about the GFS Model, The Nogaps Model, The GFDL Model, and HWRF Model all these models put Issac near Florida. Isaac is looking much better organized this afternoon.

The euro has a very good history, just because tom brady has a few bad games you would never go into the next game feeling safe on defense.

I LOL'd a little bit... partly because the EURO fans are just as rowdy and obnoxious as Pats fans.. But I do like the analogy and it makes sense