ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Stormcenter
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Re: Re:

#1681 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:05 pm

Oh I agree.....before you know it Mexico will be on the model's radar. :lol:

ROCK wrote:
Jevo wrote:
adam0983 wrote:This is Madness we have gone from a Florida landfall to Texas now. Wow


inb4 a Mod

There isnt one model forecasting a Texas landfall.. not even the Euro on it's worst day...

Remember the Euro is not the NHC official forecast track,, Just one model, an outlier at that...




There isnt one model forecasting a Texas landfall.. not even the Euro on it's worst day...

give it time....its not over yet...
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#1682 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:06 pm

Well ECM develops another Frederic from the looks of things, takes a track westwards into SW Haiti, through W.Cuba and into the Gulf where it spends 2 days really pulling itself together.

Scary run thats for sure, still a good deal west of the other models which are firmly in the S.Florida solution.
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Re:

#1683 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:07 pm

meriland23 wrote:216 hr

Image

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Wow, if Euro is right, bad news for NOLA, but I think that is Joyce moving way left of the NHC track. So the Euro could bust 2 NHC tracks. Wow!
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Re: Re:

#1684 Postby drudd1 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:10 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Hard to tell, looks to be Miss/Ala border..maybe Miss/La border covering so much area hard to tell.


Yes, about that area. Which, I should point out, appears to be about 50-70 miles farther E than the last run of the EURO. Again, not a huge shift. But as I noted in another post, the eastern outliers are shifting west while the biggest western outlier is shifting east. THAT is the trend we should all keep an eye on. Consensus towards a far eastern Gulf or FL peninsula landfall seems to be coming into better focus though it is still early.

My amateur opinion, as always!


Agreed! A far better picture will present itself by Friday as all available info will be fed into the models from all sources.
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#1685 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:12 pm

That's brings back memories of Camille/Katrina/Ivan (1st landfall).
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#1686 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:13 pm

The east side of the storm on that run...would more than likely push water up mobile bay. Lots of devastation per that run should it come to fruition. Thankfully we have time for things to change...Hopefully Euro continues to go east...and whatever comes of Isaac is nothing more than a tropical storm giving everyone rain up and down the peninsula of Florida.
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#1687 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:16 pm

Certainly an impressive hurricane coming into land the way it sweeps up really does remind me alot of Frederic I have to say, not that much different from Gustav either really bar a longer land trip.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1688 Postby Stormlover2012 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:18 pm

I think what the person was referring to that euro has la and with Rita and Ike models kept changing back and forth and boom it comes to Texas
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#1689 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:22 pm

Well if anything the EURO will definitly keep the board busy.. Once people think theyre out of the equation the participation drops off a bunch...
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#1690 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:22 pm

Does anyone have the 240 from the EURO?
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Re:

#1691 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:23 pm

You are so right.

Jevo wrote:Well if anything the EURO will definitly keep the board busy.. Once people think theyre out of the equation the participation drops off a bunch...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1692 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:24 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast.....Please refer to the NHC for official information.

The WORST thing about this particular EURO run is the fact that it's showing Isaac moving NW and then WNW after landfall. This tells me that (UNLIKE other recent landfalling hurricanes) this one is NOT going to be picked up by a trough right away. What does this mean? Any dry air or wind shear that is usually impinged upon landfall by a trough, that tends to weaken landfalling hurricanes in the northern Gulf coast, is not going to be there. If that's the case, expect a STRENGTHENING hurricane upon landfall.

That's a scary run and I hope that it doesn't pan out....
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Re:

#1693 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:24 pm

Jevo wrote:Well if anything the EURO will definitly keep the board busy.. Once people think theyre out of the equation the participation drops off a bunch...


Yes your right, though people will stay on if its looking like a possibly dangerous hurricane.

Anyway next run to look forward to is the GFS with I believe starts in about 2hrs or so.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1694 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:24 pm

repeating here.....we all know Isaac is having issues with competing centers or center relos.....look at the EURO from 24- 72hr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


look familair? :wink:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1695 Postby Zeno8 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:34 pm

ROCK wrote:repeating here.....we all know Isaac is having issues with competing centers or center relos.....look at the EURO from 24- 72hr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


look familair? :wink:


Nailed it! That is awesome
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1696 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:36 pm

The 240 Euro would almost act like a drought buster. That would be a great scenario for the midwest...
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adam0983

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1697 Postby adam0983 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:37 pm

Why is every one saying Isacc will go toward New Orleans now. The Euro has been not reliable at all. Why have we forgot about all the other models that show Florida. People lets not get carried away here.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1698 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:37 pm

That is quite a good consensus between the models. the euro is not on there but its far to the west compared to these.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1699 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:40 pm

Here's another one I found.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1700 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:42 pm

ROCK wrote:repeating here.....we all know Isaac is having issues with competing centers or center relos.....look at the EURO from 24- 72hr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


look familair? :wink:

Yep, center relocation talk makes EURO look damn good IMO.
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