ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Stormcenter]

Oh I agree.....before you know it Mexico will be on the model's radar.

This is Madness we have gone from a Florida landfall to Texas now. Wow

inb4 a Mod

There isnt one model forecasting a Texas landfall.. not even the Euro on it's worst day...

Remember the Euro is not the NHC official forecast track,, Just one model, an outlier at that...

There isnt one model forecasting a Texas landfall.. not even the Euro on it's worst day...

give it time....its not over yet...

[KWT]

Well ECM develops another Frederic from the looks of things, takes a track westwards into SW Haiti, through W.Cuba and into the Gulf where it spends 2 days really pulling itself together.

Scary run thats for sure, still a good deal west of the other models which are firmly in the S.Florida solution.

[Blown Away]

216 hr



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Wow, if Euro is right, bad news for NOLA, but I think that is Joyce moving way left of the NHC track. So the Euro could bust 2 NHC tracks. Wow!

[drudd1]

Hard to tell, looks to be Miss/Ala border..maybe Miss/La border covering so much area hard to tell.

Yes, about that area. Which, I should point out, appears to be about 50-70 miles farther E than the last run of the EURO. Again, not a huge shift. But as I noted in another post, the eastern outliers are shifting west while the biggest western outlier is shifting east. THAT is the trend we should all keep an eye on. Consensus towards a far eastern Gulf or FL peninsula landfall seems to be coming into better focus though it is still early.

My amateur opinion, as always!

Agreed! A far better picture will present itself by Friday as all available info will be fed into the models from all sources.

[Wx_Warrior]

That's brings back memories of Camille/Katrina/Ivan (1st landfall).

[SunnyThoughts]

The east side of the storm on that run...would more than likely push water up mobile bay. Lots of devastation per that run should it come to fruition. Thankfully we have time for things to change...Hopefully Euro continues to go east...and whatever comes of Isaac is nothing more than a tropical storm giving everyone rain up and down the peninsula of Florida.

[KWT]

Certainly an impressive hurricane coming into land the way it sweeps up really does remind me alot of Frederic I have to say, not that much different from Gustav either really bar a longer land trip.

[Stormlover2012]

I think what the person was referring to that euro has la and with Rita and Ike models kept changing back and forth and boom it comes to Texas

[Jevo]

Well if anything the EURO will definitly keep the board busy.. Once people think theyre out of the equation the participation drops off a bunch...

[drezee]

Does anyone have the 240 from the EURO?

[Stormcenter]

You are so right.

Well if anything the EURO will definitly keep the board busy.. Once people think theyre out of the equation the participation drops off a bunch...

[Hyperstorm]

The following post is NOT an official forecast.....Please refer to the NHC for official information.

The WORST thing about this particular EURO run is the fact that it's showing Isaac moving NW and then WNW after landfall. This tells me that (UNLIKE other recent landfalling hurricanes) this one is NOT going to be picked up by a trough right away. What does this mean? Any dry air or wind shear that is usually impinged upon landfall by a trough, that tends to weaken landfalling hurricanes in the northern Gulf coast, is not going to be there. If that's the case, expect a STRENGTHENING hurricane upon landfall.

That's a scary run and I hope that it doesn't pan out....

[KWT]

Well if anything the EURO will definitly keep the board busy.. Once people think theyre out of the equation the participation drops off a bunch...

Yes your right, though people will stay on if its looking like a possibly dangerous hurricane.

Anyway next run to look forward to is the GFS with I believe starts in about 2hrs or so.

[ROCK]

repeating here.....we all know Isaac is having issues with competing centers or center relos.....look at the EURO from 24- 72hr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


look familair?

[Zeno8]

repeating here.....we all know Isaac is having issues with competing centers or center relos.....look at the EURO from 24- 72hr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


look familair?

Nailed it! That is awesome

[drezee]

The 240 Euro would almost act like a drought buster. That would be a great scenario for the midwest...

[adam0983]

Why is every one saying Isacc will go toward New Orleans now. The Euro has been not reliable at all. Why have we forgot about all the other models that show Florida. People lets not get carried away here.

[Aric Dunn]

That is quite a good consensus between the models. the euro is not on there but its far to the west compared to these.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's another one I found.

[Weatherfreak000]

repeating here.....we all know Isaac is having issues with competing centers or center relos.....look at the EURO from 24- 72hr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


look familair?

Yep, center relocation talk makes EURO look damn good IMO.