ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

IF they (NHC) are going to issue watches and warnings it would be no sooner than 4PM but IMO it might be too early to issue any as until there is a better idea of where Debbie is going. I am sure though it will be classified as a tropical storm by 4PM

They will probably have to issue watches/warnings now because TS winds are already occurring near the coast in some areas. They also indicated in their last statement that they would probably be issuing some later today. So it's pretty likely.

[Weatherfreak000]

Just not buying the euro.......mid shear not conducive for the run and perhaps the culprit for the e storm scenario? hmm....

[bamajammer4eva]

They are issuing Small Craft Advisories and heavy surf instead of Tropical Storm watches in the FL Panhandle as of 325PM

.

That's because the local NWS offices have no jurisdiction to issue TS watches/warnings for the coast. Only the NHC. Local offices can issue tropical watches/warnings for INLAND counties once the initial watch goes up.

Thats what I've always thought but the local NWS offices issued TS watches/warning earlier this year for either Alberto or Beryl several hours before the NHC did.

[bella_may]

Pressure found at 1002 MB according to the recon!

[Texas Snowman]

A little humor from Jim Cantore:

"@JimCantore: Who else is as excited as I am to see NHC cone 4 #Debby? Never seen the whole Gulf in a cone B4... Should be interesting to say the least."

[Ivanhater]

[Jevo]

12z NOAA Operational tracks

EDIT: These are just NOAAs... I didnt forget about the CMC or Euro.. which have different scenarios... well The Euro is pretty much in line with the HWRF albeit a little to the north..

[linkerweather]

I saw that too, but he ought to know better as the cone isn't a forecast but a graphical representation of historical error. In other words the cone width is the same from a storm with a high confidence forecast and one with a low confidence forecast. Now with that said, if the first two or three days have little movement expected then the cone would be a circle, at least for the short term.

A little humor from Jim Cantore:

"@JimCantore: Who else is as excited as I am to see NHC cone 4 #Debby? Never seen the whole Gulf in a cone B4... Should be interesting to say the least."

[wkwally]

IF they (NHC) are going to issue watches and warnings it would be no sooner than 4PM but IMO it might be too early to issue any as until there is a better idea of where Debbie is going. I am sure though it will be classified as a tropical storm by 4PM

They will probably have to issue watches/warnings now because TS winds are already occurring near the coast in some areas. They also indicated in their last statement that they would probably be issuing some later today. So it's pretty likely.

LOL Iwith the way the models have been and unless they change I can just see a tropical storm watch from Brownsville, TX to Key West FL, LOL

[TexasF6]

King EURO has spoken! And so it shall be...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232046
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 31 20120623
203900 2736N 08500W 9632 00408 //// +198 //// 117043 043 032 009 01
203930 2738N 08500W 9630 00410 //// +200 //// 119042 044 031 008 01
204000 2740N 08500W 9629 00412 //// +205 //// 120042 043 030 007 01
204030 2741N 08500W 9632 00409 //// +204 //// 116041 042 028 006 01
204100 2743N 08500W 9631 00410 //// +206 //// 117041 043 027 006 01
204130 2745N 08500W 9631 00411 //// +211 //// 118042 042 026 004 01
204200 2746N 08500W 9630 00412 //// +211 //// 118040 041 025 004 01
204230 2748N 08500W 9630 00413 //// +209 //// 119041 042 024 004 01
204300 2750N 08500W 9630 00414 //// +195 //// 118040 041 024 009 01
204330 2751N 08500W 9629 00416 //// +202 //// 119039 040 023 005 01
204400 2753N 08500W 9629 00416 //// +207 //// 120039 040 023 004 01
204430 2755N 08500W 9629 00416 //// +208 //// 120039 039 022 004 01
204500 2757N 08500W 9629 00417 //// +210 //// 121039 039 024 003 01
204530 2758N 08500W 9631 00415 //// +210 //// 122040 041 024 002 01
204600 2800N 08500W 9626 00419 //// +218 //// 125041 041 022 003 01
204630 2802N 08500W 9629 00418 //// +218 //// 127041 041 023 004 01
204700 2803N 08500W 9630 00417 //// +214 //// 127041 041 026 003 01
204730 2805N 08500W 9628 00419 //// +212 //// 129041 042 024 004 01
204800 2807N 08500W 9630 00419 //// +214 //// 128042 043 025 004 01
204830 2809N 08500W 9629 00421 //// +213 //// 127040 042 026 002 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

WE HAVE DEBBY

[Jevo]

And here is a nice serving of some 12z Spaghetti

[djmikey]

Where can we find the cone?

[Kingarabian]

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 232051
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SAT JUN 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA



WTNT34 KNHC 232051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


WTNT44 KNHC 232052
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
HIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45
KT. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

DEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
RIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH
THE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARDS TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...
SURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
ON JULY 5TH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 26.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 26.9N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 27.3N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 27.4N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 27.5N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[Kingarabian]

The NHC follows the Euro Solution.

[johngaltfla]

Wow. NHC went with the Euro model primarily. That was unexpected.

[caneman]

King Euro not looking to good right now. Might be King CMC or Queen GFS.