ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[bamajammer4eva]

Cairns field AL winds are 29 MPH in gusts and Dothan winds are gusting to 25. Do these have anything to do with the outer effects of the Debby?


http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.ph ... fset=18000

[Cyclenall]

Getting even higher winds, 58 knots FL and 49 knots SFMR! BTW, what does "01" mean at the end of each line that goes from 00 to 05? I forget:

201830 2621N 08500W 9633 00377 //// +190 //// 146057 058 040 009 01

[JtSmarts]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


IMO,it seems that the moment shear lessens as that ULL in Texas coast moves away, Debby will become significantly better organized and with the very warm waters,I wont speculate on how strong it will get. And I wont venture on a possible track.

I agree Cycloneye, looking at her shape, I definitely see the potential for a Beryl type storm at least. The shear will be key though.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that Recon, the best intensity estimate is 50 kt.

[Janie2006]

It's been quite awhile since I've seen a storm this challenging in terms of prognostication. The CMC is the CMC, *but* maybe it is indeed sniffing a weakness along the central/northern GOM. After all, this storm sure isn't going to ride into a ridge like Eastwood would do. It's a switch from a couple of days ago when all the models were split between left and right. Now it's 33% across the board.

Whilst we have major splits in the models NHC is going to have its hands full forecasting a landfall for an imminent TC....cos I don't think the public is asleep anymore.

[cycloneye]

Also speculation, I would imagine the north central Gulf coast will go under tropical storm watches/warnings tonight given the tropical storms winds are on the east side.

I agree with that. I don't see how they can't with the close proximity to land. The only kicker I can see would be the fact that currently there isn't much movement or very slow movement expected. I will not be surprised if they issue watches with the first advisory.

It is a tough call for sure and they will certainly urge the point that it will be a low confidence forecast...

Is a weekend and that causes many to not pay attention and that also has to be factored into what they may do as well.

[gatorcane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


IMO,it seems that the moment shear lessens as that ULL in Texas coast moves away, Debby will become significantly better organized and with the very warm waters,I wont speculate on how strong it will get. And I wont venture on a possible track.

I agree Cycloneye, looking at her shape, I definitely see the potential for a Beryl type storm at least. The shear will be key though.

Agreed, that ull is the only thing holding this back.

[RL3AO]

Getting even higher winds, 58 knots FL and 49 knots SFMR! BTW, what does "01" mean at the end of each line that goes from 00 to 05? I forget:

201830 2621N 08500W 9633 00377 //// +190 //// 146057 058 040 009 01

Temp or dewpoint is questionable (which makes sense because one is missing in the obs).

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232026
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 29 20120623
201900 2623N 08500W 9630 00379 //// +198 //// 145058 060 039 006 01
201930 2625N 08500W 9627 00384 //// +203 //// 144056 059 037 007 01
202000 2627N 08500W 9630 00380 //// +202 //// 142058 061 039 007 01
202030 2629N 08500W 9630 00381 //// +204 //// 143060 061 039 006 01
202100 2631N 08500W 9636 00377 //// +204 //// 141054 059 037 007 01
202130 2632N 08500W 9621 00392 //// +188 //// 136049 053 039 011 01
202200 2634N 08500W 9622 00390 //// +183 //// 139057 059 040 011 01
202230 2636N 08500W 9631 00386 //// +183 //// 139053 058 042 014 01
202300 2638N 08500W 9628 00389 //// +180 //// 139056 058 043 020 01
202330 2640N 08500W 9624 00396 //// +176 //// 139056 057 046 024 01
202400 2642N 08500W 9632 00388 //// +173 //// 138056 057 047 025 01
202430 2644N 08500W 9630 00392 //// +174 //// 140057 060 043 024 01
202500 2646N 08500W 9628 00396 //// +179 //// 145054 057 042 019 01
202530 2647N 08500W 9629 00393 //// +179 //// 148052 054 039 014 01
202600 2649N 08500W 9628 00396 //// +180 //// 146052 053 035 012 01
202630 2651N 08500W 9629 00396 //// +181 //// 146052 054 033 012 01
202700 2653N 08500W 9632 00392 //// +195 //// 147050 051 034 010 01
202730 2655N 08500W 9629 00397 //// +194 //// 150052 053 037 010 01
202800 2657N 08500W 9624 00404 //// +195 //// 148053 055 036 011 01
202830 2659N 08500W 9635 00392 //// +197 //// 145049 051 033 009 01
$$
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FL 61 kts; sfmr 47 kts

[Cainer]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Despite being a relatively large right now, Debby's pressure gradient is still sharp and the winds are already inching towards 45 knots. Because of this, I think it wont be difficult for her to reach hurricane status, unlike storms like Alex '10 which had a huge, flat pressure gradient that allowed for weaker winds in relation to it's pressure. That being said, convection needs to develop over the center before an serious strengthening can take place. Just my two cents.

[wkwally]

Well from the look of things I should gear up the Jeep as I think I am going to be on a chase.

Unless you live in one of the directly affected areas (wherever that may be), it would probably be better if you stayed home. Sightseers don't really help.

I am with Sky Warn here in south Texas this will not be my first

[cycloneye]

Recon just found even stronger winds and data is good:

Flight level 61 kts; sfmr 47 kts

[bamajammer4eva]

They are issuing Small Craft Advisories and heavy surf instead of Tropical Storm watches in the FL Panhandle as of 325PM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
WITH THE AREA OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

[bella_may]

Recon just found even stronger winds:

Flight level 61 kts; sfmr 47 kts

Wow. Time to make a trip to the store!

[Dave]

[linkerweather]

remember Tropical watches and warnings are issued by the NHC, the local offices, without a named system yet (325 pm) has to issue marine related advisories.

They are issuing Small Craft Advisories and heavy surf instead of Tropical Storm watches in the FL Panhandle as of 325PM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
WITH THE AREA OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

[Ikester]

They are issuing Small Craft Advisories and heavy surf instead of Tropical Storm watches in the FL Panhandle as of 325PM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

.STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
WITH THE AREA OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

That's because the local NWS offices have no jurisdiction to issue TS watches/warnings for the coast. Only the NHC. Local offices can issue tropical watches/warnings for INLAND counties once the initial watch goes up.

[cycloneye]

More stronger winds.

Flight level 61 kts; sfmr 47 kts

[wkwally]

IF they (NHC) are going to issue watches and warnings it would be no sooner than 4PM but IMO it might be too early to issue any as until there is a better idea of where Debbie is going. I am sure though it will be classified as a tropical storm by 4PM

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232036
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 30 20120623
202900 2701N 08500W 9630 00397 //// +204 //// 140049 050 033 008 01
202930 2703N 08500W 9629 00400 //// +200 //// 137050 050 033 013 01
203000 2704N 08500W 9629 00399 //// +198 //// 134051 053 035 014 01
203030 2706N 08500W 9631 00398 //// +184 //// 135051 052 040 019 01
203100 2708N 08500W 9626 00403 //// +173 //// 138051 051 040 016 01
203130 2710N 08500W 9633 00399 //// +190 //// 136050 052 038 014 01
203200 2712N 08500W 9630 00403 //// +191 //// 138048 049 039 013 01
203230 2714N 08500W 9630 00402 //// +189 //// 138046 049 038 013 01
203300 2715N 08500W 9629 00405 //// +196 //// 136047 049 036 013 01
203330 2717N 08500W 9629 00404 //// +197 //// 133048 050 035 014 01
203400 2719N 08500W 9626 00411 //// +192 //// 129048 053 036 015 01
203430 2721N 08500W 9625 00412 //// +193 //// 133046 051 036 014 01
203500 2723N 08500W 9625 00411 //// +187 //// 132045 046 036 014 01
203530 2723N 08500W 9625 00411 //// +202 //// 133042 043 032 011 01
203600 2726N 08500W 9635 00402 //// +201 //// 128041 042 031 009 01
203630 2728N 08500W 9635 00404 //// +189 //// 125049 050 036 012 01
203700 2730N 08500W 9633 00405 //// +195 //// 119042 047 032 008 01
203730 2731N 08500W 9635 00403 //// +191 //// 113042 043 032 009 01
203800 2733N 08500W 9636 00403 //// +199 //// 114041 043 030 007 01
203830 2735N 08500W 9629 00409 //// +199 //// 117042 044 029 008 01
$$
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