ATL: ISAAC - Models

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deltadog03
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#1621 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:25 pm

This looks much more realistic from the EURO....I know the GFS homers are going to be like...seeeee the euro is coming towards the euro....well, not really...its just more realistic...
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#1622 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:27 pm

lets step back... 00z had it going through the channel 12z now has it almost crossing central cuba east of Havana at least. . that is a significant east shift.
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#1623 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:27 pm

deltadog03 wrote:This looks much more realistic from the EURO....I know the GFS homers are going to be like...seeeee the euro is coming towards the euro....well, not really...its just more realistic...

Couldn't agree more. Excellent post.
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#1624 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:28 pm

Yep the ECM is further east, but as Deltadog said I think thats just more realistic and makes more sense, still further west than most models and still heading into the E.Gulf...
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#1625 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:29 pm

I think all these models are leveling out, not so far east as once expects, not as far west as euro thought.. somewhere in the middle..
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#1626 Postby wxman76 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:29 pm

Of note is the ECMWF 12z 120 hr 500mb pattern. It has a solid 591 ridge along the Gulf Coast.
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#1627 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:29 pm

Euro will remain the west outlier for now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1628 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:30 pm

day 6 euro....

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#1629 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:32 pm

I am assuming this will hit near pns/panama city beach area....on the 12z euro...
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#1630 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:32 pm

144 hr euro

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#1631 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:32 pm

Strong ridge and moving NW. Still looks like a NGOM threat. SFL would be out the picture if EURO is right.
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#1632 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:34 pm

Yeah, probably won't make it near as far west as the previous run, but still the western most outlier. Sure hope there will be some shear or something to keep it from strengthening very much if it's going to have that much warm gulf water to work with.
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#1633 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:35 pm

I say upper Texas coast to Pensacola
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#1634 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:36 pm

this is further east than 00z, but makes a much more wnw turn vs just north and slightly right ..
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#1635 Postby wxman76 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:36 pm

Maybe a Mobile AL landfall?

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#1636 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:36 pm

144 hr euro 500hts

the weakens is there similar to gfs but unlike the gfs its farther west and likely it will get trapped. i said earlier if the gfs were just a little slower it would get trapped.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=144
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1637 Postby Stormlover2012 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:36 pm

Guys model runs will keep changing I promise
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#1638 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:37 pm

168 slowly moving due north. towards northern gulf coast.
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#1639 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:37 pm

168 hr euro (6 mb drop in comparison to 192 hr 00z)

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1640 Postby petit_bois » Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:38 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:Guys model runs will keep changing I promise

yeah... they all keep inching towards the euro...
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