ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Hmm thats quite a brave call Wxman57, especially when all models have already been too far north in the short term, and given this one is still tracking near due west and winds to the NW still look pretty strongly to the west.

Center looks like its trying to tuck into the convection at the moment.

Also,it seems that it will move under Kirk as it almost reaching the longitude.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

According to models, turn to wnw-nw should happen any minute.

[tolakram]

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[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Euro has shifted way west on Leslie:

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... to/1/large

Future Leslie looks to be becoming extratropical in that frame, which makes sense considering the position, plus that track could be nasty for my area.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

The big picture.

[Sanibel]

Good thing there's no ridge in place.

[wxman57]

While I don't question your high level of expertise as you are perhaps one of the most knowledgeable and level headed professional posters on this board, I seem to remember a very similar remark about what was to become Isaac. Just sayin'.

Your memory fails you. I was consistently left of guidance and weaker when 94L was east of the Caribbean. Models developed it to a hurricane and I pointed out the unfavorable conditions in its path. While some were hyping a hurricane path up the east U.S. Coast I was saying farther west - to the western Florida Panhandle from 8 days before landfall. I'd say that's pretty close from that far out.

From when Isaac was well east of the Caribbean as 94L on Sunday August 19:
"94L continues to struggle in the hostile conditions that prevail east of the Caribbean this season. It's clear that some of the models (GFS in particular) were incorrect in their assessments of development potential east of the Caribbean. Ernesto and Seven/Helene had a hard time consolidating east of the Caribbean, and 94L will probably also struggle. It appears unlikely that it will be a hurricane when it reaches the eastern Caribbean. Possibly a TS."

And on Monday the 20th:
"I expect an upgrade soon - either within the next hour or by 10am tomorrow. Still will struggle as it moves rapidly westward into the eastern Caribbean Wednesday."

And on Tuesday, the 21st:
"My gut is saying Florida Panhandle."

We've already issued track forecasts for our clients, and they keep it north of the Caribbean. I'll bet you a nickle that the NHC's first track keeps it well north of the Caribbean, too.

[Ntxw]

If she's a fish storm I hope she racks up some ace. Looks like I blew the numbers forecast but still need more ace. She does look large which the trend this season is for large storms to develop and fight odds.

[wxman57]

Hmm thats quite a brave call Wxman57, especially when all models have already been too far north in the short term, and given this one is still tracking near due west and winds to the NW still look pretty strongly to the west.

Center looks like its trying to tuck into the convection at the moment.

Also,it seems that it will move under Kirk as it almost reaching the longitude.

I think it'll definitely track west of Kirk, but there won't be much to keep it moving west in another 12-24 hrs. You'll be fine, Luis. Trust me.

[ozonepete]

The big picture.

http://oi48.tinypic.com/vpd8ig.jpg

Boy, BIG picture is right. Another very large storm.

[ouragans]

you guys seem to doubt of the recurve to happen sharply...

Ouragans what is your opinion about the sharp recurve?

98L/TD12 is a large system, moving pretty quick, and a sharp recurve will be difficult to do, like if you were asking a big truck to take a sharp curve. It's true that Kirk opened the door in the Azores high, and in the SAL, but Kirk is a small system.

I already gave up on a westerly track through the NE islands, but it might recurve later than expected, closer to the islands in fact.

I'm not a pro met, this is just my opinion

[Gustywind]

you guys seem to doubt of the recurve to happen sharply...

Ouragans what is your opinion about the sharp recurve?

98L/TD12 is a large system, moving pretty quick, and a sharp recurve will be difficult to do, like if you were asking a big truck to take a sharp curve. It's true that Kirk opened the door in the Azores high, and in the SAL, but Kirk is a small system.

I already gave up on a westerly track through the NE islands, but it might recurve later than expected, closer to the islands in fact.

I'm not a pro met, this is just my opinion

Thanks to you i appreciate your input. I will continue to monitor it in case of and very carefully as you know better than me that school will begin Monday. Let's hope that nothing happens from this but looks like this feature continues to exhibit a very nice sat appearence. Like you i'm not a pro met, but a small amateur . Let's wait and see...

[cycloneye]

If she's a fish storm I hope she racks up some ace. Looks like I blew the numbers forecast but still need more ace. She does look large which the trend this season is for large storms to develop and fight odds.

I think Kirk and future Leslie will rack up the numbers. Here is where the North Atlantic stands right now.

Code: Select all

Season total

Storm
 
Type
 
ACE (104 kt2)


01L (Alberto)
 
Operational
 
1.3750

02L (Beryl)
 
Operational
 
0.8650

03L (Chris)
 
Operational
 
2.7200

04L (Debby)
 
Operational
 
2.4450

05L (Ernesto)
 
Operational
 
7.7050

06L (Florence)
 
Operational
 
1.4375

07L (Helene)
 
Operational
 
0.2450

08L (Gordon)
 
Operational
 
8.1900

09L (Isaac)
 
Operational
 
9.3500

10L (Joyce)
 
Operational
 
0.2450

11L (Kirk)
 
Operational
 
1.2350

Total

35.8125


[Sanibel]

Something tells me we haven't seen September yet...

[Aric Dunn]

Just like with the last many trofs this year. I dont think this one will be as amplified. they just have not been able to dig south all too much. A more westerly track change is quite possible.

Isaac may have something to say about this trof. I noticed the interaction with Isaac and the pattern over the U.S. helped to amplify the pattern across the eastern U.S. and West Atlantic, deepening the trof off the east U.S. coast significantly. I'd say that there's an 80-90% chance the center of Leslie-to-be will pass north of the eastern Caribbean then recurve.

possible of course. if the Euro has any weight then a east coast threat is possible. Isaac being the culprit on the 00z run that helps keep so to be leslie heading nw and does not recurve.

Its also possible ( and maybe going on right now ) that kirk has it lifts out the ridge will quickly build between kirk and leslie ( so to be) keeping her more west for the next couple days. i dont by the wnw to nw motion the models are saying given that it is due west for the last day or more and the models started out with a nw motion which has not happened. h

[cpdaman]

Just like with the last many trofs this year. I dont think this one will be as amplified. they just have not been able to dig south all too much. A more westerly track change is quite possible.

Isaac may have something to say about this trof. I noticed the interaction with Isaac and the pattern over the U.S. helped to amplify the pattern across the eastern U.S. and West Atlantic, deepening the trof off the east U.S. coast significantly. I'd say that there's an 80-90% chance the center of Leslie-to-be will pass north of the eastern Caribbean then recurve.

great post,

so i guess your talking about the trough that swings off the east coast for sunday and brings cooler air to the NE and maritimes, would i be correct to assume, if future modeling flattens this trough out (near 65W) that this , would be something to look for to see a small shot at getting that 10-20 percent chance it doesn't go east of bermuda to occur. thank you for any response wxman57, you do this board a great service.

[LarryWx]

Hmm thats quite a brave call Wxman57, especially when all models have already been too far north in the short term, and given this one is still tracking near due west and winds to the NW still look pretty strongly to the west.

Center looks like its trying to tuck into the convection at the moment.

I disagree. I don't think that saying 80-90% chance for recurve north of the LA's is brave at all when considering both the many model runs in a row that have shown just that (with no strong high holding it down) as well as El Nino climo. During the 33 El Nino seasons since 1900, 19 storms formed in the MDR east of 50W. Out of these, only 5 of 19 (26%) crossed the Lesser Antilles. So, without model support, betting on a hit in the L.A.'s is what would be quite brave.

Based on a combo of these models (with no strong high to hold it down) and El Nino climo, I'm going with only a 5% chance of a U.S. hit since it has already become a TD so far east. IF that 5% were to occur, I'd go with New England. I'd say Canada is a bigger threat from this than New England if either is going to be hit.

El Nino seasons: 19 CV storms formed in August during 33 seasons since 1900. Out of these 19, only 3 later hit the U.S. (1900's Galveston storm, 1930's storm #2, and 2004's Frances), which equates to a mere 16% U.S. hit rate during Ninos for Aug. formations. Since 1960, there have been 0.8 CV formations/August (14 in 17 Aug.'s) and a mere 7% U.S. hit rate (1 of 14).

*My def. of a CV a storm: a storm that first becomes a TD east of 50W and south of 20N.

[Jevo]

Well.. the first measurable point is coming up.. 0z Euro and 6z GFS had the storm north of 15 @ 50... Personally I think it's a trip up to the Flemish Cap where all the fish go.. but i am not making any predictions on when she makes the turn to the right to get there yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm thats quite a brave call Wxman57, especially when all models have already been too far north in the short term, and given this one is still tracking near due west and winds to the NW still look pretty strongly to the west.

Center looks like its trying to tuck into the convection at the moment.

I disagree. I don't think that saying 80-90% chance for recurve north of the LA's is brave at all when considering both the many model runs in a row that have shown just that (with no strong high holding it down) as well as El Nino climo. During the 33 El Nino seasons since 1900, 19 storms formed in the MDR east of 50W. Out of these, only 5 of 19 (26%) crossed the Lesser Antilles. So, without model support, betting on a hit in the L.A.'s is what would be quite brave.

Based on a combo of these models (with no strong high to hold it down) and El Nino climo, I'm going with only a 5% chance of a U.S. hit since it has already become a TD so far east. IF that 5% were to occur, I'd go with New England.

El Nino seasons: 19 CV storms formed in August during 33 seasons since 1900. Out of these 19, only 3 later hit the U.S. (1900's Galveston storm, 1930's storm #2, and 2004's Frances), which equates to a mere 16% U.S. hit rate during Ninos for Aug. formations. Since 1960, there have been 0.8 CV formations/August (14 in 17 Aug.'s) and a mere 7% U.S. hit rate (1 of 14).

*My def. of a CV a storm: a storm that first becomes a TD east of 50W and south of 20N.

Its not a el nino season.

[HurricaneRobert]

100% chance of formation