ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[AJC3]

Euro pretty much loses it again.

yep, gets it into the carib at 120hr but poofs it....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

Still, the H85 vortex is easily trackable, pretty much due westward all the way through the Caribbean until it hits the coast near the Honduras-Nacaragua border. After that it turns WNW and moves across the Gulf of Honduras and onshore the coast at Belize, then across the YP and into the BOC. By H240, the ECM has the H85 vortex is at 23N96W and moving toward coastal NE Mexico with the center of the omipresent southern plains "death ridge" to its NW.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro pretty much loses it again.

yep, gets it into the carib at 120hr but poofs it....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

FWIW it looks like the 12zECMWF picks it up again in the SW GOM by days 9-10.

Sorry would post a pic but I'm at work
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

Yeah I noticed that Rgv. The 0z run is pretty similar to the 12z run too. Maybe some nice tropical rains for us in about 10 days?

[CrazyC83]

Death ridge in action. That looks like the 2007 pattern to me.

[Aric Dunn]

it appears to be quickly getting its act together. i would go to 40% at 8pm and if trends continue go 60 at 2am. by the morning if convection continues to build it should be detached enough from the ITCZ to see development not to long after.

[cycloneye]

it appears to be quickly getting its act together. i would go to 40% at 8pm and if trends continue go 60 at 2am. by the morning if convection continues to build it should be detached enough from the ITCZ to see development not to long after.

Also,it seems to be moving a little bit west to westnorthwest now,not strait west.

[Aric Dunn]

it appears to be quickly getting its act together. i would go to 40% at 8pm and if trends continue go 60 at 2am. by the morning if convection continues to build it should be detached enough from the ITCZ to see development not to long after.

Also,it seems to be moving a little bit west to westnorthwest now,not strait west.

Yeah once that LLC became established it succumbed to rotational dynamics and interactions with the ITCZ. should take a good jump wnw overnight then steady out. then depending on how deep it get will in part determine its path.

if you run the loop you can see the LLC at the edge of the convection moving wnw. however it also possible that is another vort to its south that they are rotating around. but with the increased curved banding and convection building chances should go up unless it just falls apart which does not seem very likely.

loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[yankeeslover]

so my friends, should i start to consider biting my nails yet about my 8/10 flight from NY to Orlando?

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT TUE JULY 31 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 03/1800Z NEAR 12.5N 57.5W

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[GCANE]

UL Outflow really picking up. Much excellence on the N, W, and S sides of the COC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

Last visible image of this day.

[ROCK]

I cant see any LLC attm...so I will stick to best track for now...does look good though...

[cycloneye]

Here is a complete explanation about how the ITCZ vs separation by a developing TC from the convergence zone works. Interesting read. 99L is going thru this right now.

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/100 ... 0-0733.pdf

[IreneSurvivor47]

Code Red by 2am if it keeps it up.

[mcheer23]

Code Red by 2am if it keeps it up.

Really doubt that.

[Florida1118]

Code Red by 2am if it keeps it up.

Really doubt that.

Why? I think its pretty likely this will develop within 48hours. Its all up to the NHC and what the particular forecaster thinks at the time. For the most part, 99L is taking shape very nicely.

[LSU2001]

I could definitely see a depression form in the next 48 hours based on the current organization trends. However, I think it will take awhile for this one to get its act really together, if it ever does.
Tim

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

If this system misses the island chain completely and instead takes a track east of the Bahamas, like most Cape-Verde storms, is it likely then that it would become a major hurricane, considering the ocean heat content is rather high (29°C - 30°C) and the air is relatively moist?

[mcheer23]

I'd go with a 40-50 percent at 8

[Zanthe]

I could see them putting a 60%, but I don't think it's likely. I think more around 40-50% at 8, MAYBE a code red at 2. Could be a TD within the next 48 hours. But lots of things still up in the air.

[LSU2001]

If this system misses the island chain completely and instead takes a track east of the Bahamas, like most Cape-Verde storms, is it likely then that it would become a major hurricane, considering the ocean heat content is rather high (29°C - 30°C) and the air is relatively moist?

I think that this invest's best chance of gaining Major status is to stay on a Caribbean course. From what I remember, the SAL is higher as you move north, particularly around
Bahamas. Heat content is fairly high and shear is low right now. I think shear may play an inhibiting rol
e later in the forecast period. I know people want to know what this thing is going to do but it is a watch and wait type of scenario.
Tim

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.