ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,

[stormhunter7]

that UL Low should keep this system in check. I mentioned it last night that it appeared it was forming off Houston... today wv clearly shows it deeping/getting stronger

[stormandan28]

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[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Third scenario in play: NGOM.

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That swath is far too small, MX to FL is the only forecast that even makes sense right now. But if it goes to NGOM, I think it goes east of NOLA.

[RL3AO]

[SoupBone]

^^^
Third scenario in play: NGOM.

What makes you believe that the ridge will breakdown over Louisiana?

[BigB0882]

That's what the CMC shows. He isn't necessarily picking one scenario over the other, just showing the options that the models are throwing out.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231906
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 21 20120623
185900 2509N 08840W 9735 00277 0048 +230 +230 294018 018 015 002 01
185930 2508N 08841W 9733 00280 0049 +230 +230 295017 018 019 001 01
190000 2508N 08841W 9733 00280 0049 +230 +230 302017 018 011 003 01
190030 2506N 08843W 9735 00279 0049 +240 +238 303018 019 009 002 00
190100 2505N 08844W 9737 00277 0050 +230 +230 297019 019 009 001 01
190130 2504N 08846W 9732 00282 0050 +230 +230 294018 019 007 001 01
190200 2503N 08847W 9736 00280 0051 +239 +232 301018 018 005 003 03
190230 2501N 08847W 9730 00286 0051 +239 +232 298018 019 002 003 03
190300 2501N 08845W 9740 00276 0050 +230 +230 290018 018 013 000 01
190330 2500N 08843W 9736 00279 0050 +230 +230 281017 018 005 003 01
190400 2500N 08841W 9738 00277 0050 +230 +230 279017 018 008 003 01
190430 2459N 08839W 9734 00281 0050 +238 +236 281017 018 010 001 00
190500 2459N 08838W 9733 00281 0050 +239 +233 278018 018 013 001 00
190530 2459N 08836W 9736 00280 0050 +240 +232 275018 019 015 000 00
190600 2458N 08834W 9739 00277 0050 +240 +233 275018 018 011 002 00
190630 2458N 08832W 9734 00281 0050 +230 +230 274018 018 011 002 01
190700 2458N 08830W 9733 00282 0050 +240 +237 274019 019 011 001 00
190730 2457N 08828W 9739 00276 0049 +240 +237 271020 020 012 002 00
190800 2457N 08826W 9737 00277 0049 +240 +238 267020 020 014 002 00
190830 2457N 08825W 9733 00281 0049 +240 +235 264019 020 011 002 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

As long as the NE vort is lower in the atmosphere it will prevail. (Haven't seen a vort-spitter like this ever)

[cycloneye]

AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,

Yes,here is the TS Debby file.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Weatherfreak000]

That's what the CMC shows. He isn't necessarily picking one scenario over the other, just showing the options that the models are throwing out.

CMC, GFDL, GFS and TVCN. They only differ in location. We would likely have to see Debby meander in the NGOM as well as any possible interaction with an e storm. Time will tell.

[Dave]

GE is running a little slow...hopefully it'll catch up before the end of the mission...

[Ikester]

AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,

Yes,here is the TS Debby file.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Cycloneye, this is the site I'm using. For some reason, I still have not gotten the update:

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[ROCK]

the EURO has spoken....thou shall follow....

[gatorcane]

What the GFS thinks will send this system to East is seen starting to materialize in this WV loop. Look at the upper-left corner of the screen and you can see another trough and associated low getting ready to swing through the northern Great lakes.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

You can see in the 12Z GFS run (500MB layer) that in 48 hours how this low creates a big weakness along the eastern coast of the United States. High pressure is sitting over Oklahoma with good ridging to NW of the 96L that has moved north into the North-Central GOM. Tropical systems take the path of least resistance which would send it NE or ENE not west:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?i ... n=us&t=48h

Still hard not to go with the rest of the models ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NOGAPS which send this west.

[cycloneye]

AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,

Yes,here is the TS Debby file.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Cycloneye, this is the site I'm using. For some reason, I still have not gotten the update:

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

I see 04 there.

[Cyclenall]

How many circulations are they going to find? It appears they already found 3, based on the wind barbs...

That's really funny, I wonder what the "record" is for the most circulations in a TS such as this one is? If it gets to 6, I'll call record.

Not related to this ongoing recon, why is the TCPOD messages on the NHC website all weird now? The Today and Tomorrow links now only show tomorrow's messages and you can't find the details of the one that is occurring today anymore. Under notes is where the current info is.

[SouthFloridawx]

The center is going to continue to reform under intense convection, until conditions are a little better. I think the Panhandle is a pretty safe bet for landfall.

[tropicwatch]

Noticed the slowness also.

[bella_may]

Do you guys think the nhc will just put the northern gulf coast in the cone for now? That's my guess since there's a shorter amount of notice for this area than there is for Texas