ATL: ISAAC - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
meriland23
- Category 5
- Posts: 1239
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm
Re:
KWT wrote:Any system going up the spine of Cuba like that is going to have a large struggle once it gets over water again, I suspect the inner core, if there is one will be a right ole mess by that time!
does seem to have perturbed the system, at 111 it is 990 mb..
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sure is spending a lot of time over cuba wont be much if that happens.
If it happens to go up the spine of Hispaniola as well then forget about it. The only storm I could remember that accomplished such a feat and still be a CAT 2 in the keys was Georges but that storm was a freak that went over the big three islands.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Take it abit further north Aric though and you'd have a rather worrying system, yes Haiti would hurt this system but it'd have enough time to recover before Florida.
Tough call though, if it does take that long overland as you say its going to struggle to get beyond TS strength. That track reminds me of Fay somewhat.
Tough call though, if it does take that long overland as you say its going to struggle to get beyond TS strength. That track reminds me of Fay somewhat.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z GFS +120
12z GFS +126
Florida Keys
12z GFS +126
Florida Keys
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
very little change overall in the gfs still looks like enough w motion to get it into the gulf.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Re:
meriland23 wrote:KWT wrote:Any system going up the spine of Cuba like that is going to have a large struggle once it gets over water again, I suspect the inner core, if there is one will be a right ole mess by that time!
does seem to have perturbed the system, at 111 it is 990 mb..
The GFS won't have any sort of handle on the inner workings of the core, so it won't weaken the system nearly enough overland.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
-
adam0983
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z GFS +120
If this track holds this would be bad for south florida.
If this track holds this would be bad for south florida.
0 likes
-
Miami Storm Tracker
- Category 4
- Posts: 910
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
- Location: Key Largo, Fla.
- Contact:
Re: Re:
blp wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Sure is spending a lot of time over cuba wont be much if that happens.
If it happens to go up the spine of Hispaniola as well then forget about it. The only storm I could remember that accomplished such a feat and still be a CAT 2 in the keys was Georges but that storm was a freak that went over the big three islands.
BLP,
Not to say it won't but onthis run it does not really track over the center of the island. Could keep it from getting as weak if it had.
0 likes
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z GFS +132
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
-
deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
Looks like its going to rixde up the west coast of Florida on this run, pretty much the shortest possibl time over water on this run, only 18hrs or so betweern a long run overland and then into Florida.
Probably no more than a mid-high TS on this run for Florida.
Probably no more than a mid-high TS on this run for Florida.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z had a sharper turn northward and closer to the florida coast then the 06z.
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Looks like the 12z GFS is going to go through the keys.....and on that current heading its heading for the EGOM RIDGE looks a bit stronger this run....
pretty much exactly like 12z yesterday.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
12z GFS +141
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
-
Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:deltadog03 wrote:Looks like the 12z GFS is going to go through the keys.....and on that current heading its heading for the EGOM RIDGE looks a bit stronger this run....
pretty much exactly like 12z yesterday.
Yup and a slight north and east shift from the 6z
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests