ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[bella_may]

Makes me wonder if the euro Is right how far west or wsw this thing will go before it turns north

[Evil Jeremy]

Anybody else suffering from a severe case of analysis paralysis? I've been stuck at my computer for hours and just can't move.

I know what you mean. I have a huge headache and am starving. I'm going to take a short lunch break around 4 (or whenever recon is over), so I can be back for the possible advisory, and then more models, and then satellite images dissection... ugh....

EDIT: analysis paralysis... I've never heard that term before, but it's perfect for this lol.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231826
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 17 20120623
181900 2617N 08701W 9736 00258 0026 +235 +227 173009 009 002 004 03
181930 2616N 08703W 9736 00256 0024 +235 +227 175009 009 002 005 00
182000 2616N 08704W 9736 00256 0024 +234 +229 167009 010 003 001 00
182030 2615N 08706W 9732 00259 0026 +230 +230 152007 008 003 001 05
182100 2614N 08708W 9737 00256 0025 +234 +232 161008 009 003 001 00
182130 2614N 08709W 9736 00256 0025 +230 +230 158008 009 003 001 05
182200 2613N 08711W 9735 00257 0025 +230 +230 139007 008 002 002 01
182230 2612N 08712W 9733 00258 0026 +230 +230 135007 007 002 001 01
182300 2611N 08714W 9737 00255 0025 +230 +230 138007 008 001 004 01
182330 2611N 08715W 9733 00259 0025 +235 +234 145008 009 002 003 03
182400 2610N 08717W 9739 00254 0025 +240 +228 151004 008 002 003 00
182430 2609N 08718W 9733 00259 0024 +239 +227 104004 004 003 003 00
182500 2609N 08720W 9735 00257 0025 +235 +229 087005 005 002 002 00
182530 2608N 08722W 9735 00259 0026 +235 +229 088005 005 004 004 00
182600 2607N 08723W 9736 00257 0026 +236 +228 089005 006 003 001 00
182630 2606N 08725W 9733 00260 0026 +235 +229 078006 007 003 002 00
182700 2606N 08726W 9733 00260 0026 +236 +229 072007 007 002 003 00
182730 2605N 08728W 9737 00258 0026 +240 +227 074007 007 004 003 00
182800 2604N 08730W 9735 00259 0026 +235 +229 072009 009 009 001 00
182830 2604N 08731W 9735 00259 0026 +236 +229 080009 010 008 003 00
$$
;

[robbielyn]

Anybody else suffering from a severe case of analysis paralysis? I've been stuck at my computer for hours and just can't move. I suspect the vort will take off tonight with the next diurinal max. Looks like the mid-level circulation may finally be drilling down to the surface. If you spin the top of a cup of coffee long enough, the circulation will work it's way to the bottom of the cup. Same thing applies in the atmosphere.

Yeah to the point I haven't gotten off the couch with my tablet to even get me lunch. Cuz actually I have to go get it fridge empty but don't want to leave even for 10 minutes lol.

[vaffie]

At 96 hours, it is now turning gradually to the north (has been at WNW for the prior 24 hours) around the high, pressure at 988 mb (equivalent to 100 mph).

how does 988 mb = 100mph? this seems to be a large, loosely wrapped system that would generate much lower winds with such a pressure.

You're right, it could be anywhere from 70 to 100 mph. But its shear size and the gradient with the high pressure to its north will produce stronger than average winds.

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey wxman, if those western model runs or even cmc verify, how much rain could we possibly be.looking at down here in southern LA? Thanks.

[bamajammer4eva]

28 storms twitter

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Due to rising tides & forecast uncertainty, Terrebonne Parish, LA, officials are starting to close floodgates....

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[Ikester]

At 96 hours, it is now turning gradually to the north (has been at WNW for the prior 24 hours) around the high, pressure at 988 mb (equivalent to 100 mph).

how does 988 mb = 100mph? this seems to be a large, loosely wrapped system that would generate much lower winds with such a pressure.

You're right, it could be anywhere from 70 to 100 mph. But its shear size and the gradient with the high pressure to its north will produce stronger than average winds.

This is a large storm. A pressure of 988 on a storm like Alicia or Humberto would have a much higher sustained wind than a 988 pressure on an Ike-sized storm. Think ice skater. You also can't rule out the case of having a lower pressure but the winds trapped in the upper-levels as we also saw in Ike.

[StormingB81]

So is more and more. saying west now?

[brunota2003]

Looks like recon might be going to do another pass, this time for a center fix?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231836
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 18 20120623
182900 2603N 08733W 9731 00261 0026 +235 +232 084013 014 015 002 00
182930 2602N 08735W 9739 00256 //// +216 //// 093013 015 021 004 05
183000 2601N 08735W 9736 00257 //// +210 //// 113009 012 015 005 01
183030 2559N 08735W 9736 00258 0026 +230 +230 130008 009 005 002 01
183100 2558N 08735W 9735 00258 0025 +230 +230 138008 008 005 001 05
183130 2556N 08735W 9729 00263 0025 +230 +230 139007 007 006 001 01
183200 2555N 08736W 9736 00257 0024 +230 +230 150007 007 003 003 01
183230 2553N 08736W 9733 00258 0024 +230 +230 153006 007 007 003 05
183300 2552N 08737W 9731 00260 0023 +230 +230 181006 007 005 002 01
183330 2551N 08739W 9737 00254 0024 +230 +230 201006 007 005 001 01
183400 2550N 08740W 9736 00256 0024 +230 +230 219008 009 010 002 01
183430 2549N 08741W 9736 00255 0023 +230 +230 227008 009 010 002 01
183500 2549N 08743W 9741 00250 0023 +235 +229 225008 009 006 003 03
183530 2549N 08744W 9728 00262 0023 +230 +230 215007 009 005 001 01
183600 2550N 08745W 9736 00254 0022 +230 +230 202007 008 007 001 01
183630 2551N 08747W 9737 00253 0022 +235 +234 210004 008 006 002 00
183700 2552N 08748W 9733 00257 0022 +230 +230 149003 004 011 002 01
183730 2553N 08749W 9734 00255 0022 +230 +230 120003 004 011 003 01
183800 2555N 08751W 9732 00259 0023 +230 +230 067006 011 003 004 01
183830 2556N 08752W 9742 00250 0023 +230 +230 068012 014 011 004 05
$$
;

...as we continue to look...

[bella_may]

So is more and more. saying west now?

Well the models are trending more north than west. That's very unprofessional for him to make such a bold statement IMO

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[tropicwatch]

WXman, when(if) do you think a vort will "take off"

Hard to say. Maybe tonight or tomorrow. Shear needs to relax more. Big surprise "a tropical storm may be forming...".

Shear is coming down.



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[Evil Jeremy]

So is more and more. saying west now?

Well the models are trending more north than west. That's very unprofessional for him to make such a bold statement IMO

It's hard to say that they are trending in any specific direction. The EURO has stayed on Texas, and GFS on Florida. Every other model has just been flipping and flopping like a wet noodle.

[Weatherfreak000]

I wonder if the EURO is trying to make this too strong too quickly, and thats why its really shoving this W

I was thinking the same thing....96L certainly looks disorganized, why would EURO send it too quickly west? Other globals meander the storm much longer in the central GOM....EURO does not. The split energy theory would certainly wreck that track. If I recall GFDL sees E storm as well as GFS?


This is the clear test, also what of TVCN and CMC? This has to be one of the most split cycles of model runs i've seen in a while.

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[Hurricane Andrew]

Next RECON takeoff is sceduled for 6:15am eastern.

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[tbstorm]

Anybody else suffering from a severe case of analysis paralysis? I've been stuck at my computer for hours and just can't move.

I know what you mean. I have a huge headache and am starving. I'm going to take a short lunch break around 4 (or whenever recon is over), so I can be back for the possible advisory, and then more models, and then satellite images dissection... ugh....

EDIT: analysis paralysis... I've never heard that term before, but it's perfect for this lol.

I like that term, know exactly how you feel.....
I keep waiting for the rainbands to come ashore invof Ft. Myers... been staring at the radar for hours.