ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tailgater]

You gotta real quick to beat Luis.

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231806
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 15 20120623
175900 2635N 08712W 9731 00250 0012 +240 +239 109017 018 020 002 00
175930 2635N 08710W 9736 00250 0016 +230 +230 124020 021 023 001 01
180000 2635N 08709W 9733 00254 0020 +230 +230 126020 020 022 002 01
180030 2635N 08707W 9737 00253 0022 +220 +220 120020 021 023 001 01
180100 2634N 08705W 9732 00259 0024 +220 +220 115018 020 020 002 01
180130 2634N 08704W 9736 00257 0025 +230 +230 114018 018 020 002 01
180200 2634N 08702W 9737 00256 0026 +230 +230 117018 018 019 002 01
180230 2634N 08701W 9736 00258 0027 +220 +220 119018 018 021 001 01
180300 2633N 08659W 9732 00261 0027 +220 +220 124018 019 021 002 01
180330 2633N 08658W 9739 00256 0027 +220 +220 128019 019 022 002 01
180400 2633N 08656W 9734 00260 0027 +220 +220 129017 019 020 002 01
180430 2633N 08655W 9736 00259 0028 +230 +230 130017 017 017 002 01
180500 2632N 08653W 9736 00259 0028 +230 +230 130016 017 019 001 01
180530 2632N 08651W 9736 00259 0028 +230 +230 129016 016 020 000 01
180600 2632N 08650W 9734 00261 0029 +220 +220 130015 015 016 000 01
180630 2632N 08648W 9736 00260 0029 +230 +230 132014 015 014 001 01
180700 2631N 08647W 9734 00262 0030 +230 +230 137013 014 012 001 01
180730 2631N 08645W 9736 00261 0030 +230 +230 145013 013 008 002 01
180800 2631N 08643W 9736 00261 0031 +230 +230 156014 015 006 002 01
180830 2631N 08642W 9734 00263 0031 +230 +230 158013 015 006 002 05
$$

[cycloneye]

Recon found lower pressure on second vortex (1000.9 mbs)

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO at 72 hours out:

[wxman57]

WXman, when(if) do you think a vort will "take off"

Hard to say. Maybe tonight or tomorrow. Shear needs to relax more. Big surprise "a tropical storm may be forming...".

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 96 hours out now:

[robbielyn]

That larger green circle on Cycloneye's graphic is the western vortex that's moving almost due south. The smaller circle is of another vortex that's moving west. The center if the broad circulation is south of the smaller circle. There are probably 1 or 2 more vortices still obscured on the east side of the broad circulation. We see this quite often with poorly-defined systems. Eventually, a vortex forms closer to the convection and then it takes off. Small vortices in "clear air" are not the place to watch.

Wxman57 would u mind posting visible sat pic with a circle where u think center is? Thanx

Nevermind saw Luis graphic and ur explanation.

[BigB0882]

It is just crazy to think how a small change could result in a big difference for track. What if it continues to move N for an extra 12-24 hours? It would nearly make landfall and then hug the coast almost the entire way to TX. If it stays out far enough then people may escape bad flooding but if it comes close enough to shore we could have big problems.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231816
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 16 20120623
180900 2630N 08640W 9734 00265 0032 +230 +230 166015 016 005 003 01
180930 2630N 08638W 9733 00266 0033 +235 +234 169016 017 006 002 00
181000 2630N 08637W 9736 00264 0033 +230 +230 166016 017 012 001 05
181030 2629N 08636W 9734 00266 0033 +230 +230 167015 016 /// /// 05
181100 2628N 08637W 9729 00269 0032 +236 +235 166016 017 010 002 00
181130 2627N 08638W 9736 00263 0031 +237 +233 169016 016 007 003 00
181200 2627N 08640W 9733 00264 0031 +236 +233 168016 016 008 003 00
181230 2626N 08641W 9736 00261 0030 +230 +230 167015 015 011 002 01
181300 2625N 08643W 9735 00262 0030 +230 +230 167015 015 010 003 01
181330 2624N 08644W 9735 00262 0029 +230 +230 164014 015 010 002 01
181400 2624N 08646W 9736 00260 0029 +230 +230 163014 014 004 002 01
181430 2623N 08647W 9735 00261 0028 +235 +234 164013 014 005 003 00
181500 2622N 08649W 9735 00261 0029 +230 +230 158012 013 004 003 05
181530 2622N 08650W 9733 00264 0029 +230 +230 155011 012 003 002 01
181600 2621N 08652W 9737 00259 0029 +230 +230 153011 012 004 003 01
181630 2620N 08654W 9735 00260 0028 +230 +230 149010 011 005 002 01
181700 2620N 08655W 9733 00261 0028 +230 +230 149010 010 005 000 01
181730 2619N 08657W 9736 00259 0027 +230 +230 143009 009 003 003 05
181800 2618N 08658W 9735 00258 0027 +230 +230 145010 010 002 003 01
181830 2618N 08700W 9733 00260 0027 +230 +230 153010 010 004 001 01
$$
;

[vaffie]

At 96 hours, it is now turning gradually to the north (has been at WNW for the prior 24 hours) around the high, pressure at 988 mb (equivalent to 100 mph).

[Riptide]

Cannot help but notice that Euro is farther north along the Texas coast on the 12z run. I don't see how a sophisticated atmospheric model such as the Euro could be wrong at this range. If the GFS keeps doing whatever its doing (spinning off phantom lows and amplifying the trough) then I'd expect a compromise solution somewhere along the central Gulf Coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 120 hours:



So to summarize this model set, its now:

EURO/UKMET/HWRF: Texas
GFS/GFDL: Florida

[duris]

Bastardi: “@BigJoeBastardi: This could  be cat  2,  worst  case  cat  3  by landfall.AudreyJune, 57  got to  cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of”. Historically true with Audrey, and anything "could be", but model support?

[Ikester]

Anybody else suffering from a severe case of analysis paralysis? I've been stuck at my computer for hours and just can't move. I suspect the vort will take off tonight with the next diurinal max. Looks like the mid-level circulation may finally be drilling down to the surface. If you spin the top of a cup of coffee long enough, the circulation will work it's way to the bottom of the cup. Same thing applies in the atmosphere.

[psyclone]

At 96 hours, it is now turning gradually to the north (has been at WNW for the prior 24 hours) around the high, pressure at 988 mb (equivalent to 100 mph).

how does 988 mb = 100mph? this seems to be a large, loosely wrapped system that would generate much lower winds with such a pressure.

[wxman57]

Euro has Matagorda Bay landfall at 108 hrs.

[bamajammer4eva]

EURO 120 hours:



So to summarize this model set, its now:

EURO/UKMET/HWRF: Texas
GFS/GFDL: Florida

Don't forget Canadian = Mississippi Gulf Coast

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[southerngale]

And a few other JB tweets from about the same time...

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Now that I can see the low level center, believe GFS is wrong with east move as its developing for enough west to miss ne trough

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Wednesday will be one heck of summer weather day. cold ne, california. Heat northern and central plains. hurricane heading for Texas


Surprised me... I thought he was thinking Florida.