ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blown Away]

12z Slight west shift of TVCN

[ROCK]

The TVCN had no choice to move.....the EURO made it move since it weighs into the blend...

but that does look really strange.....

[tolakram]

TVCN is not on there, but I think you caught the updated NHC forecast, which appears to have moved just west of Florida now.

[Bocadude85]

TVCN is not on there, but I think you caught the updated NHC forecast, which appears to have moved just west of Florida now.

Yea looks like the OFCI shows a landfall in the upper keys and then mainland monroe county

[x-y-no]

Central pressure up to 1006 in the 11am advisory.

[ROCK]

yeah its struggling some.....and moving to fast....I saw an outflow boundary earlier at the surface to the north. I didnt say anything...not stacked....

[Wx_Warrior]

Have a gut feeling GFS will be inching westward in 12z.

JB says he still leaning toward EGOM/Florida rout, even tho EURO threw us a curve.

[Stormlover2012]

Yeah but also jbsaid dont count out the euro run and said wouldn't be surprise if the euro was right

[KWT]

GFDL still going up the East side of Florida, with a powerful 956mb hurricane I see.

I suspect the models will shift a bit more to the west. EVentual evolution and track almost certainly will be a curve up towards the NW/N but forward speed of Issac will make a difference to the timing of that turn.

[GTStorm]

GFDL still going up the East side of Florida, with a powerful 956mb hurricane I see.

I suspect the models will shift a bit more to the west. EVentual evolution and track almost certainly will be a curve up towards the NW/N but forward speed of Issac will make a difference to the timing of that turn.

yep, I was into the gradual east shift, based admittedly too much on what I remember from Irene last year. Now it looks like a west shift. either way, Savannah once again looks to avoid anything.

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[uhvjaguars22]

when its all said and done the models will be different than what they were showing last night most likely lol everyone most likely should prepare

[Vortex]

12Z GFS rolls shortly, very much looking fwd to this run as well as ECM later....

[Bocadude85]

12Z GFS rolls shortly, very much looking fwd to this run as well as ECM later....

Yup will be interesting to see what the GFS shows.. Im thinking another west shift.. but we shall see

[KWT]

12z GFS will be interesting, will it clock the fact that its motion is closer to 285 at the moment than the 275-280 the previous models have shown for the next 24hrs...

Such motion makes a HUGE difference to track and strength.

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized



+12

[Jevo]

12z GFS +24

[Vortex]

and were off, good initialization...

[SFLcane]

Red line is 12z consensus model...

[rockyman]

12z GFS is running a little left of the 6z thru 30 hours.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +36