ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

Amen

There's still a chance this falls apart, I know it's forecast to streghten but the Eastern Caribbean is not usally the place for this to happen. just sayin!

[ROCK]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012

...HURCN ISAAC MAY IMPACT FL DURING THE D5-D7 TIME PERIOD...

THE CURRENT 06Z/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A
VARIETY OF SOLNS PRESENTED THEREBY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR
INTERESTED PARTIES ACRS THE SERN U.S.

Would be nice if they fired up the G-IV today to knock down all of these Solutions sooner than later

well the EURO up later today should put all of these solutions to rest....

[Sanibel]

The northern "graveyard" can be immune to the effect in this climatology.

[Mouton]

Picking up speed? The 11AM says that. Pressure is 1006 too, no huge drop. Heading due west.

[ROCK]

Is that an eye trying to form?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

congrats you are the 1st poster to ask that question!!! I don think you win anything though....strict budget around here.

[tolakram]

Updated track

[Aric Dunn]

we are having some center reformation it seems with every new convective burst. its very typical of developing systems moving so fast and with dry air being pulled in.

[Frank2]

If he's right, we all get an asprin (lol)...

It seems the current lack of intensification is favoring the more westward track, so good news and we'll have to see if the cone begins to shift westward by the next forecast cycle later today and tonight...

[wxwatcher1999]

Is that an eye trying to form?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

congrats you are the 1st poster to ask that question!!! I don think you win anything though....strict budget around here.

Rock...that's the post of the day..lol

[Weatherfreak000]

I lost count of the amount of storms expected to strengthen in the graveyard that didn't. Yes there have been THAT MANY. If your on the NGOM watch models this morning trend is west....we won't have as much time before NHC sounds alarm best be prepared for anything.

[madinina972]

Here in Martinique, lot of rains...

[hurricanefloyd5]

we are having some center reformation it seems with every new convective burst. its very typical of developing systems moving so fast and with dry air being pulled in.

where is it relocating to.

[Jevo]

Updated track

Looks like that's pretty much in line with Brian Norcross's thoughts this morning on the radio putting Metro Dade and Broward in the "dirty" part of the storm as it approaches

[ROCK]

I lost count of the amount of storms expected to strengthen in the graveyard that didn't. Yes there have been THAT MANY. If your on the NGOM watch models this morning trend is west....we won't have as much time before NHC sounds alarm best be prepared for anything.

yeah, the reason its such a graveyard for developing systems is that its pulling dry air off SA....now if this was Dean or Felix no problem...but its still not stacked and moving dang fast....

[Weatherfreak000]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

[HurrMark]

If this track holds, I personally don't see this being even a Cat-1 in Florida. (my opinion only) Too many mountains, not enough time to regroup.

[wxman76]

Good morning all, Lots of info to digest this morning.

i noticed a couple of things going on this morning. The cloud tops are warming, and another slug of SAL is incringing on the northeastern side. If this is getting near the center then evaporative cooling may also explain the warmest temps being displaced. Keep in the mid the past few days Isaac has weakened this time of day, then bounces back in the afternoon and strengthens. plus it looks like center relocation issue so I think several factors are going on.

NHC 11am update keeps Isaac the same strength but the discussion is interesting because of the comment that the GFS "aTHE GFS SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA...BUT FORECASTS ISAAC TO BYPASS THE BREAK AND MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. " If this continues this lead validity to the Euro scenario. Something to watch.

The Euro scares me personally. While it bypasses me in the Tampa area, this leads the storm over ocean water with an extremely high energy content all the way to the gulf. If Isaac takes the option, watch out, the bottom will fall out and we have a major disaster on our hands.

Yesterday my thought was an East coast track, but even though NHC says this thing is moving at 280 I don't see it on the satellite and if this doesn't start nudging north soon it will miss the East coast. Right now i'm not wacky about as far west as the Euro but think this has a better chance of going into the GOM. Interesting to see the 12 GFS. Just based on satellite obs i don't think this going northward anytime soon IMO.

This is just my opinion and thoughts. For official forecasts please defer to the NWS and NHC. Thank you.

[CrazyC83]

A due west track for a long time will dramatically change the intensity forecast as well, since it would no longer interact with islands. Needless to say, the intensity forecast is very difficult. At Day 5, it could be anything from a disrupted weak low to a monster hurricane.

[wxwatcher1999]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

I was just looking at that too...I think models will shift dramatically west today

[tolakram]

NHC track expected it to move WNW and its just not happening...same with models...only EURO shows due west.

What are you looking at that shows due west movement? Recon fixes show WNW and the history line shows this as well.