jlauderdal wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:yeah the longer it takes to start moving north quicker the more time the trough has to flatten out and weaken. i noticed the gfs yesterday had slown way down between 120 to 144 hrs similar to the euro.. now it has at least in the short to medium range come into better agreement with the euro. timing is of course key. the slower this moves the more likely there will be some westward shifts.
Also noticed quite a bit more of the GFS ensemble members now showing a more Euro solution.
add error rate and RI to the mix and the poleward movement associated with it and 150 miles to the west isn't out of the question in the modeling
one of the things sometimes forgotten is the land interaction with cuba. the center re-formations and pressure field expanding as it weakens all play a part in the models. still to early to tell.