ATL: LESLIE - Models

[Riptide]

[Jevo]

12z GFS +72



12z GFS +96

[Bocadude85]

What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?

[x-y-no]

Just kind of drifting out there with no steering after 66 hours. Was interested to see it depicted a bit more ridging up to that point. Is there room for some ridging to build in over the top again?

[Jevo]

What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?

Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have

[Jevo]

12z GFS +120

[tolakram]

Closest pass to the islands @ 48 hours



3 days later, creeping north

[DESTRUCTION5]

The old 5 day stall...Those are always a fun to see if they go left or right..

[Jevo]

12z GFS +132



12z GFS +144

[FutureEM]

If the global models verify, then Maine could see a storm. I still remember seeing Jim Canotre out there for Hurricane Kyle, alas I stopped watching that channel years ago now.

[Jevo]

12Z GFS +156

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is slightly further northeast vs. the 0Z and 6Z GFS at day 7 fwiw.

[Jevo]

12Z GFS +168



12Z gfs +180

[Hurricaneman]

if that MLC doesnt form as modeled at 65 to 70W, how much could this change the game

[Jevo]

12Z GFS +204



12Z GFS +228



12Z GFS +288

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS
12Z GFS +228

Nearly 10 days to go from where Leslie is now to well east of the Carolinas, that is alot of time sitting around. IMO, the models are not a done deal this will recurve.

[Janie2006]

She doesn't seem to move a whole lot once you get into the long range. I'm not so certain she'll recurve all the way out.

[southerngale]

12z Euro @ 24 hours




48 hours




72 hours



96 hours



120 hours



144 hours



168 hours



192 hours



216 hours



240 hours

[Hurricane Alexis]

I can't believe the GFS has it stalling in the same lat/lon square for 4 days.

[chaser1]

What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?

Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have

Yeah, I was noticing a feature too that shows up off S.E. Florida, but am not sure if we are talking about the same feature. On the 12Z GFS at around 160 hour there appears to be a front (or trough) that extends SSW up and down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. At about 170 hr. there seems to be a weak low that either forms along this front, or perhaps is the remnant low from Isaac migrating eastward. Of greater interest to me is something showing up on the 500mb GFS in the "near-term". Right now there appears to be a "TUTT like" feature that extends S.W.'ward from a remant short wave east of the U.S. seaboard. As time moves forward, this southernmost extention of vorticity appears to break off east of South Florida at about 33 hr.s. Then, the most recent short wave digging south off the Canadian maritimes appears to quickly pull up and out. As soon as 48 hours from now, heights begin rising in the wake of the fast departing short wave and this mid level vort center now starts creeping slowly westward to a point directly over S. Florida at about the 84 hr. point. where it remains, then drifts NW eventually toward Ceder Key area at roughly 126 hr.'s. As further note, this feature does not appear to either reflect as a 200mb feature, nor does it appear to reflect all the way down to the surface.

Therefore the way I see it, depending on the timing of things.... should Leslie continue to fight shear in the near term and thus be less impacted by the existing weakness to her north and perhaps maintain an increased forward speed and continue a 285 (or less) heading for the next 48-72 hours, than I believe the steering might be in place to push Leslie on a more westward track and quite potentially impact any point from Florida to the Carolina Outer Banks. Should Leslie gain more latitude during the next 48-72 hours only to be caught or stuck in a COL a bit farther north, than I would assume the storm to eventually recurve ahead of the next eventual short wave