ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Zanthe]

Should be a code orange with the next update, I think. 30, maybe 40.

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yes it should be orange by next update looking at the SAT appearance trends over the past 24 hours. It is gradually organizing as expected and as Aric pointed out it is showing hints it is trying to lift from the ITCZ. Question now is how quickly will it organize over the next several days? If it does organize more quickly we would expect a more WNW motion and for it to gain some lattitude. Seems like gradual development is more likely with a more west motion for the next several days in deference to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. Also, the fact both these models are backing off on development in the long-range once it gets further west is telling me there must be something (perhaps a TUTT low) that could hit 99L with a good amount of shear if it makes it to the Central/Western Caribbean.

cycloneye adds Storm2k disclaimer

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC slight farther south and much weaker than previous runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[GCANE]

Pretty good ML spin

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 310845.GIF

Looks like a number of overshooting tops in the cluster with building cirrus.

Appears to be trying to develop a warm core.

[ROCK]

12Z GFS still carib bound then opens it up

12Z NOGAPS sends it up and out above the islands

12Z CMC the same as NOGAPS but weaker

12Z EURO- out in a few minutes....

[Stormlover2012]

i give it a 60 perc chance xof name storm by sat!!

[Blown Away]

12z CMC slight farther south and much weaker than previous runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC slight south shift takes 99L over over all the big islands, CMC & Nogaps see more favorable conditions just N of the islands. GFS for days has killed 99L in the Central Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Nice structure shown on pass made at 10:50 AM EDT.

[Nimbus]

Jeff Masters said he thought the dry air and jet shear just to 99L's north might inhibit development some.

Perhaps that is why we are not seeing the usual jump north out of the ITCZ that so often occurs with the low level circulation of a system developing near the ITCZ?

The ridge evolution depicted by the CMC looks kind of ominous, solid 1022 line stretched west along the Gulf coast all the way to Texas.

This system will probably look like a ragged tumbleweed for a while but with the increase in convection over higher SST's and obvious mid level vorticity they may upgrade to depression status by tomorrow.

[ROCK]

needs a LLC but I think late tomorrow is a good call IMO....

[timmeister]

GFS ensembles are shifting north as I expected them to. The rest of the models should do the same over the next few runs.

This looks like an East Coast storm or an out to sea storm. The Caribbean track, in my opinion, is the least likely at this time.

Looks like the GFS ensembles are are shifting to the Caribbean and not to the north.

[Stormlover2012]

weaker the storm is it will stay south, ridge is strong, euro will win this system!!

[ozonepete]

needs a LLC but I think late tomorrow is a good call IMO....

I agree. From cyclone's OSCAT image it looks like it's gaining a little latitude and only needs west winds around the bottom to close off. 24 hours should be more than enough given the warm water, low shear and moderate forward speed.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Kingarabian]

Euro pretty much loses it again.

[ROCK]

Euro pretty much loses it again.

yep, gets it into the carib at 120hr but poofs it....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012073118, , BEST, 0, 96N, 413W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

18z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 311836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC TUE JUL 31 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120731 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120731  1800   120801  0600   120801  1800   120802  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.6N  41.3W   10.3N  44.8W   10.7N  48.2W   10.6N  51.8W
BAMD     9.6N  41.3W   10.1N  43.5W   10.6N  45.4W   10.9N  47.3W
BAMM     9.6N  41.3W   10.1N  43.8W   10.6N  46.0W   11.0N  48.2W
LBAR     9.6N  41.3W   10.1N  44.1W   10.6N  47.1W   11.0N  50.1W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120802  1800   120803  1800   120804  1800   120805  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.6N  55.1W   10.0N  61.4W   10.8N  66.8W   12.9N  71.8W
BAMD    11.1N  49.1W   11.7N  52.7W   12.9N  57.0W   14.2N  61.2W
BAMM    11.4N  50.3W   12.4N  55.1W   14.0N  60.8W   16.2N  67.1W
LBAR    11.4N  53.2W   11.8N  59.1W   12.6N  64.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        52KTS          57KTS          58KTS          58KTS
DSHP        52KTS          57KTS          58KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.6N LONCUR =  41.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =   9.1N LONM12 =  38.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =   8.7N LONM24 =  35.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Rgv20]

Euro pretty much loses it again.

yep, gets it into the carib at 120hr but poofs it....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

FWIW it looks like the 12zECMWF picks it up again in the SW GOM by days 9-10.

Sorry would post a pic but I'm at work
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif