ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

Any thoughts on the 8pm TWO?

IMO, they should keep it at 50% unless thing get going before then. Still no dominant center or LLC so to speak....slow process

[ROCK]

18Z NAM coming in....out 57 hrs....central GOM

[ROCK]

18Z NAM at 66hrs...likes the west solution...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



EDIT to add- not very strong... 1008mb at 72hr

[Sanibel]

Still over land drifting ENE IMO.

[bg1]

78 hours out and it looks like it's stationary.

[ROCK]

78 hours out and it looks like it's stationary.

yep it stops in its tracks....too bad the NAM doesnt go out more than 84hrs...I love that model....

[N2Storms]

[quote="ROCK"]06Z NAM at 66hrs...likes the west solution...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


It really does appear as though the models are coming in to somewhat better agreement that HP is going to build in pretty quickly once the trough moves through and will push whatever this is off to the NW or West. Even the Tallahassee NWS is signing on to this train of thought and is going along with this west to northwest trend at the end of the weekend in to the first part of next week. I hope we can get a good dousing or two before it moves too far to our west but I'm not holding my breath. Probably going to end up just being hot and dry...

EDIT to add- not very strong... 1008mb at 72hr[/quote]

[ROCK]

06Z NAM at 66hrs...likes the west solution...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


It really does appear as though the models are coming in to somewhat better agreement that HP is going to build in pretty quickly once the trough moves through and will push whatever this is off to the NW or West. Even the Tallahassee NWS is signing on to this train of thought and is going along with this west to northwest trend at the end of the weekend in to the first part of next week. I hope we can get a good dousing or two before it moves too far to our west but I'm not holding my breath. Probably going to end up just being hot and dry...

EDIT to add- not very strong... 1008mb at 72hr

its the NAM... which is horrible with tropics but good for CONUS weather. I look at it for HIGH placements and trofs really and nothing else.

[petit_bois]

Any thoughts on the 8pm TWO?

60%

[Houstonia]

IMO, they should keep it at 50% unless thing get going before then. Still no dominant center or LLC so to speak....slow process

Maybe other Houstonites can second me on this. Our afternoon weather discussion update has NOT come out yet. The last update was around 12:00. I know that the NOLA weather update has already come out (at 3:15). I've noticed in the past, when the discussion is delayed, it's because they are conferring with other offices and getting ready to make a fairly dramatic change to the discussion. I know all along they've been talking about hot dry weather for the next week. Maybe that's going to change?

Does that ring true for you all?

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussions from NWS offices.

Corpus Christi:

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A STRONG MID/UPR RDG AXIS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PD. THIS WL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT...DRY AND
HOT WX PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK MON-WED
WITH WIDESPREAD 100+ DEG READINGS ACROSS THE CWA. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND VERY WARM MID-LVL TEMPS WL KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SLIM TO
NONE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE THIS WEEKEND WHERE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AS AN INFLUX OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THIS RGN. OF COURSE...THE MAJOR CAVEAT TO
THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST WL DEPEND HIGHLY UPON THE TRACK OF WHAT
WL LKLY BE A FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE...EMANATING FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN. THE STRENGTH OF THE RDG AXIS AND THE EXTENT OF THE
DIGGING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AXIS WL BE KEYS TO ANY EVENTUAL MOVEMENT
OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. OBVIOUSLY FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE WENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
CONSENSUS SOLN (WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY WL CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS)
PROGS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
FOR SVRL DAYS BEFORE SWINGING NEWD AND AFFECTING FLORIDA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SOLN KEEPS ALL THE SENSIBLE WX WELL TO OUR EAST WITH
ONLY SWELLS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SOLN WL BE
IGNORED FOR NOW GIVEN ITS WESTWARD SHIFT TWDS THE TX COAST WHICH IS
MORE THAN 1000 MILES DIFFERENT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF SOLN!
OBVIOUSLY...THE CONFIDENCE WL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM
GIVEN ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COL REGION. THIS OF COURSE WL
TRANSLATE INTO A DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

Houston/Galveston:

CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK...THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF ANY GULF SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT.
THE BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

&&

.MARINE...
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ENE WINDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF
WHICH IS THE CULPRIT. NOT EXPECTING MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS THAT WOULD CAUSE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LEVELS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD BE RUNNING
1.8-2.0 FEET. SO WE`LL BE JUST BELOW THE TOTAL 3.7 FEET CRITERIA
(ASTRONOMICAL + METEOROLOGICAL) WHEN WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES AT THE LOWEST LOCATIONS.

OF COURSE THIS WILL ALSO TIE INTO WHAT EVENTUALLY EVOLVES IN THE
GULF REGARDING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MESS NEAR THE
YUCATAN. SEVERAL...SEVERAL DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS AND ANALYSIS IN
PLAY AND REALLY NOT WORTH FLIP-FLOPPING THE FCST EVERY 6 HOURS
WITH EACH MODEL RUN FOR SOMETHING THAT DOESN`T HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION YET. THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE ENOUGH MODEL SOLNS THAT
DO KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF LONGER (AND SOME FURTHER WEST) TO
WARRANT NUDGING SEAS UP DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST.
NEEDLESS TO SAY... MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES IN THE
FCST BETWEEN NOW AND MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

Lake Charles:

ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND ITS IMPACT ON THE COMPUTER MODELS. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ITS SOLUTIONS ON POTENTIAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVENTUAL SYSTEM EVOLUTION. ATTM ALL BUT THE
GFS ARE GATHERING AROUND THE IDEA OF THE RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER
EAST...PUSHING THE TROF OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE WEAK
SHEAR ALOFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS DEVELOP A CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION. WITH THE
LACK OF A GOOD STEERING FEATURE ALOFT THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NWD TO NNEWD INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY
TAKES FURTHER HOLD OVER THE SRN CONUS AND PUSHES IT WWD ACROSS THE
NRN GULF. WITH THIS LOW NOW PROGGED TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE TX
COAST...THIS USHERS IN THE NEED TO INCLUDE POPS OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GREATEST IMPACTS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED
OVER MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
(MUCH SOONER FAR SERN ZONES) AND THEN SPREAD WWD THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY
POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...POPS AND WINDS HAVE BEEN TEMPERED TO
ACCOUNT.

Mobile/Pensacola:

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A LARGE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY AND EXTENDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF LINGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL
GULF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY
LEFT ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM PER THE GFS/ECMWF AND HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY LOW END POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
THE GULF SURFACE LOW REMAINS A CHALLENGING FORECAST
CONSIDERATION...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE LONGWAVE TROF ADDS CREDENCE TO THE GENERAL
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TALLAHASSEE:

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Thursday) If the consensus of the NWP
guidance is correct (ignoring the operational 12 UTC GFS), the
Gulf low will likely have little direct impact on our weather as
it moves westward toward the Northwest Gulf Coast next week. If this
forecast trend continues into the 00 UTC model runs, we will have
to increase our max temperatures dramatically from our previous
forecast as this large scale weather patter would favor hot,
relatively dry weather with low PoP. We haven`t made these
adjustments to our forecast yet since this 12 UTC model cycle was
really the first to establish this new trend, and the models could
yet flip flop in subsequent runs. We would prefer to see the
00 UTC model runs before committing to this solution. This is not
to say that everyone in our area should ignore this system, as
this forecast could change again in subsequent model runs.

Tampa:

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW THAT IS DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AND THEN TRACKS A WEAK SYSTEM ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY WHILE
THE CANADIAN TAKES THE LOW WEST TOWARD TEXAS AND THE ECMWF HOLDS
IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN MOVES IT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH INTO MONDAY THEN WITH THE
BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THE EXACT FORECAST BECOMES
UNCERTAIN. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS IT DOES LOOK LIKE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...
BUT HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like shear may still be an issue going forward. IMO

[ROCK]

It looks like shear may still be an issue going forward. IMO

SHIPS shear forecast is for almost nada...I think Louis posted it in the other thread...or maybe this one...

[Portastorm]

It looks like shear may still be an issue going forward. IMO

Stormcenter, please post this on the 96L discussion thread as it has nothing to do with the model runs. Thanks.

ROCK, you too please.

[ROCK]

those were some great AFDs....IMO, if the next EURO comes in with the same solution then they will have to bite.....

[Hurricane Andrew]

How is NAM on intensity?

[ROCK]

How is NAM on intensity?

the 18Z NAM keeps it weak through 84hrs....

[MiamiHurricanes10]

No real reason for percentages to be raised in the upcoming Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance continues to fire intense, but disorganized, thunderstorm activity displaced to the east of the current dominant surface circulation. Until upper-level winds begin to subside, development into a tropical cyclone will be slow to occur.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Afternoon discussions from NWS offices.

<snip>

Sounds like texas and LA are trying to send it to florida and florida trying to push it to texas! lol

[tropicwatch]

Pressure is still falling ndbc buoy 42003 now down to 1008.1.
26.044 N 85.612 W

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 7.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.5 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 114 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1008.1 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.0 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.0 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.6 °C