EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

1200Z Best Track - Still waiting for Bud...

EP, 02, 2012052112, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1007W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

It has taken it's time to be a Tropical Storm,but once it does,it appears a good RI proccess will take place according to the 12z SHIP update.

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    39% is   3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    29% is   3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    20% is   3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    13% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)


And the shear will be ideal.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)         4     7     8    11    14    11     7    11     5    12    16    13    10


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12052 ... _ships.txt

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, should RI very quickly. For the 1000th time, this storm is going to suck for MX.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211440
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOW TO ORGANIZE...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.2N 101.0W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Note: This was edited in after disco release

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211448
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER
THAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT
UNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
BEING MADE. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW
FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...
THE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72
AND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT
12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 9.2N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.6N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 211440
PWSEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1500 UTC MON MAY 21 2012

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 1 X X 7 15
TROP DEPRESSION 36 15 5 2 2 13 9
TROPICAL STORM 61 76 57 39 21 39 44
HURRICANE 1 8 38 59 77 41 32
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 7 31 38 39 27 23
HUR CAT 2 X 1 5 14 22 9 7
HUR CAT 3 X X 2 5 13 4 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 3 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 60KT 70KT 85KT 75KT 55KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)

SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 7(31)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) 6(32)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 7(32)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 7(27)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Don't usually post this, but given the RI and land threat I am.

[Yellow Evan]

Disco still not out yet, c'mon NHC.

[Chacor]

Relax. It's not even the top of the hour. Jeez, some people!

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan, please dont make a different post about each NHC advisory product. Use only one post to post Public advisory,Discussion etc,thanks for your cooperation.

[Yellow Evan]

Relax. It's not even the top of the hour. Jeez, some people!

Well, they released every product bout the disco at ~35, and released the disco at ~50. That is 15 mins apart, higher than normal, usually the disco wait is 5-10 mins max.

[Chacor]

The discussion takes the most time to write as for the rest they can use a templated format. Cut them a bit of slack.

[cycloneye]

This is the discussion of TD TWO-E by Dr Jeff Masters.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

Possible Recon for Wednesday


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 13.5N 105.5W FOR 23/1800Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[cycloneye]

Slowly getting more and more organized.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 21 2012


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND WITHIN A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SOME
500 NM WIDE. THE CENTER OR THE DEPRESSION IS DISPLACED WITHIN
THE NE PORTION OF THE BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION...MOVING W OR
270 DEG AT 7 KT. MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE REMAINS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 KT...
AND MAXIMUM SEAS TO 11 FT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...YIELDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALL FACTORS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...WARM SST...PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE BROADER CIRCULATION IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND
IS FORECAST TO THEN ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG ARE OCCURRING IN BANDS WITHIN 270 NM NW AND 120 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES OF T.D. TWO-E. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO-E.

[cycloneye]

Dvorak T Number increase to TS level.

21/1745 UTC 9.2N 101.5W T2.5/2.5 02E -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[CrazyC83]

EP, 02, 2012052118, , BEST, 0, 93N, 1015W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M

Not yet, maybe another agency still says T2.0.

[cycloneye]

EP, 02, 2012052118, , BEST, 0, 93N, 1015W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M

Not yet, maybe another agency still says T2.0.

They updated the 18z Best Track to change the latitude and longitude positions.

EP, 02, 2012052118, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1007W, 30, 1005, TD

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

The latest 18z SHIP update for RI has continued to increase,compared with the 12z.

Code: Select all

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    56% is   4.8 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    40% is   5.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    26% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    26% is   8.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12052 ... _ships.txt

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be a large storm since it is slow organizing. East Pacific storms are smaller than Atlantic storms. I noticed slow organizing storms can undergo rapid intensification like Super Typhoon Tip or Hurricane Wilma.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE
MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 101.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AND COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

A 1640 UTC ASCAT PASS HAS MADE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MORE
READILY APPARENT...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS A BIT OF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT. THE ASCAT DATA IS ALSO SHOWING WINDS NO HIGHER THAN
25-30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION.

THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION HAS RESULTED IN A LONG-TERM
MOTION OF 290/5 KT. THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CHANGE IN THE MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY PICKED UP BY A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND
INSTEAD SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM PLOWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO...AND THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DISREGARDED. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...ENDING UP ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 5.

DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND THE ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BEGIN SOON. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS
INCREASED TO 56 PERCENT FOR THE 25-KT THRESHOLD AND 40 PERCENT FOR
THE 30-KT THRESHOLD DUE TO THE SEEMINGLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NHC
FORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE BY
36 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND HWRF. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 72 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN SOME FASHION BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND NOW
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE A HURRICANE ON DAY 5.
BUT...AS ALREADY STATED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 9.6N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 10.2N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 11.3N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 18.0N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO

$$
FORECASTER BERG