ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Kingarabian]

I personally believe the Global models will be windshield wiping - from Texas all the way to the EC.

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[meriland23]

Isaac looking pretty healthy right about now

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 9_sat.html

[ROCK]

Weaker up until about 120hr then it bombs in the GOM....


Lets not forget the the EURO nailed IKE and the other models took forever to catch on....it set the trend...[/quote]
That's what I meant, thanks for the correction!

Thought you slept through your alarm clock .[/quote]




Southern Gale told me to stay up for it....its her fault!!!

[stormhunter7]

forgot to add.. tonights recon mission currently going on... based on there HDOB and dropsonde data, they have found the center, but on first pass they hit two centers. So that leads me to think we still have a sheared storm, even though the IR imagery tonight shows nice cold covection going over isaac

[Kingarabian]

Isaac looking pretty healthy right about now

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 9_sat.html

Convection wise I agree, but I think he's not yet well stacked into the lower levels.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This looks to be becoming Debby pt II. Will the Gfs continue its domination or will euro look to take back the title it.held so long. Could we be seeing a changing of the guards so to speak? Good times ahead.

[chrisjslucia]

forgot to add.. tonights recon mission currently going on... based on there HDOB and dropsonde data, they have found the center, but on first pass they hit two centers. So that leads me to think we still have a sheared storm, even though the IR imagery tonight shows nice cold covection going over isaac

Do you know where that second centre is?

[southerngale]

Southern Gale told me to stay up for it....its her fault!!!

Fine, fine. Blame me. Aren't you glad you did, though?

Well, until you feel it in the morning.

[pricetag56]

And why is the euro so much farther west?

Has a weaker system compared to the GFS.

So a weaker storm wont feel the the weakness then right?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It will feel it, just not to the extent the gfs is showing. My gut is telling me if it takes the track the gfs is showing it will be much weaker as well and in turn Move more west. We shall see.

[Kingarabian]

And why is the euro so much farther west?

Has a weaker system compared to the GFS.

So a weaker storm wont feel the the weakness then right?

To some extent. Really weak systems tend be more influenced by the Lower level flow like the Euro is showing up until 120 hours that is.

[meriland23]

It is safe to assume, anyone from east TX to east SC should keep a close and careful eye on this. Most people disregard as soon as they see a track 5 days out that does not effect them, and take it to heart, and continue doing what they do. Don't think they truly realize that they change almost every time, very fippity floopity. This one is especially flippity.. littlest change is the difference between it effecting LA all the way to Fl

[Kingarabian]

It is safe to assume, anyone from east TX to east SC should keep a close and careful eye on this. Most people disregard as soon as they see a track 5 days out that does not effect them, and take it to heart, and continue doing what they do. Don't think they truly realize that they change almost every time, very fippity floopity. This one is especially flippity.. littlest change is the difference between it effecting LA all the way to Fl

Exactly Meriland. The NHC always stresses that their tracks average margin of error is 200miles. Better safe than sorry, so prepare for the worst.

[RL3AO]

HPC Models Diagnostic Discussion

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

PREFERENCE: AFTER 12Z THU...ECMWF

THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK BEGINNING
THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...CONTRIBUTING
TO A SUSPICIOUSLY FAST SOLUTION...WHILE THE NAM LIES NEAR THE DEEP
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THESE LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOMES...AND
THAT THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET AND A LARGE NUMBER OF
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF.

[SFLcane]

06z models still clustered around the SFL area..

[meriland23]

HPC Models Diagnostic Discussion

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

PREFERENCE: AFTER 12Z THU...ECMWF

THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK BEGINNING
THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...CONTRIBUTING
TO A SUSPICIOUSLY FAST SOLUTION...WHILE THE NAM LIES NEAR THE DEEP
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THESE LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOMES...AND
THAT THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET AND A LARGE NUMBER OF
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF.

forgive me for being a little ..illiterate when it comes to this stuff, but what does this mean?

[RL3AO]

forgive me for being a little ..illiterate when it comes to this stuff, but what does this mean?

The model experts at HPC think that the GFS is suffering feedback problems and moves the trough over central US east too quickly and they favor the Euros output.

[meriland23]

forgive me for being a little ..illiterate when it comes to this stuff, but what does this mean?

The model experts at HPC think that the GFS is suffering feedback problems and moves the trough over central US east too quickly and they favor the Euros output.

I knew it.. hmm.. well like I said, euro be the worst case since it would not make its way over cuba (not much) and the GOM is steaming.. but we will see.

[meriland23]

06z models still clustered around the SFL area..

but when you look at this sort of thing, you wonder why they would favor the euros lonely track.

[Bluefrog]

forgive me for being a little ..illiterate when it comes to this stuff, but what does this mean?

The model experts at HPC think that the GFS is suffering feedback problems and moves the trough over central US east too quickly and they favor the Euros output.

That is not good for us in the northern GOM