ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Meteorcane]

yeah don't really look at the GFS' pressure it tends to be too high, on the other hand the GFDL and HWRF tend to be create too deep systems, I would say the GFS has a Cat.2ish system when it makes its SFLA landfall in this run. Although the pressure would be indicative of a strong T.S./weak Cat.1. I am surprised that it does not get torn up that much by Haiti, but it does seem to miss most of the spine of Cuba would could explain the intensity.

[ROCK]

So much for following the euro's trend. This looks more to the right.

yep way different runs....GFS is slowly moving over to the NOGAPS, CMC camp now....

So Rock are you saying that NOGAPS and CMC may have had this right all along??? What a coup that would be for those models. I'm going on my gut but I don't think you will see GFS go much further East. Maybe back west a hair. I'm thinking right up the spine of the state. GFS and the consensus are locking in on a solution.

SFT

yeah the CMC and NOGAPS have been the right outliers for days now.....that would be a coup for those models....especially the NOGAPS....

[Wx_Warrior]

And some were thinking this would go further west?

@Rock - How many runs is the for GFS to show a east FLA track?

[psyclone]

interesting right shift here. there's plenty of time for the storm to miss florida to the east should such a trend establish itself. i'm not suggesting that is what will ultimately transpire but that is what happened last year with Irene. for the longest time irene's recurve zone was 80 to 85 longitude suggesting a peninsula strike or extreme eastern gulf and it wavered back and forth but stayed within that zone...until it didn't and it swung east and stayed there. fun times ahead.

[ROCK]

And some were thinking this would go further west?

@Rock - How many runs is the for GFS to show a east FLA track?

many.....the GFS 2 days ago said Texas then swung all the way to FL the next run and has stayed on either side of it for a few days now....I have seen a few EC FL runs...

[ROCK]

as much as I want to stay up from the EURO....not sure I can hang tonight...

[SouthFLTropics]

Set your alarm clock Rock...

[ROCK]

speaking of NOGAPS......0Z NOGAPS....out 120hr


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

Set your alarm clock Rock...

I have watched the EURO roll in so much I can tell you when the frames are uploaded!!!

[Javlin]

So out of the Big Bend area run and back to home inTallehasse all in all a small shift E.I can tell ya that once I take my sleep meds those guy s on the right need to calm down it's a war in the smiley convention fright sheees though little suckers are mean

[southerngale]

as much as I want to stay up from the EURO....not sure I can hang tonight...

Yeah. See you in a few hours, ROCK.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

[Bocadude85]

interesting right shift here. there's plenty of time for the storm to miss florida to the east should such a trend establish itself. i'm not suggesting that is what will ultimately transpire but that is what happened last year with Irene. for the longest time irene's recurve zone was 80 to 85 longitude suggesting a peninsula strike or extreme eastern gulf and it wavered back and forth but stayed within that zone...until it didn't and it swung east and stayed there. fun times ahead.

The diffrence with Irene though is that she went north of Hispanola

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Irene_2011_track.png

[ROCK]

as much as I want to stay up from the EURO....not sure I can hang tonight...

Yeah. See you in a few hours, ROCK.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

you know me too well!!

[Jevo]

It's a shame the G-IV isnt going out until Thursday. I would love to have the data in tomorrow night's models

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 12zECMWF Ensemble Spreads it looks like the Operational is to the left of its Ensemble Members....It is going to be an interesting 0z run tonight.

Forecast Valid for Wednesday Morning August 29.

[Meteorcane]

What time do the HWRF and GFDL roll out?

[Riptide]

The 0z CMC is still east of all other major global models, with a rather potent Isaac passing through the Bahamas.

[Rgv20]

0zUKMET to South Florida in 5 days...Just a bit faster than tonight's Official Forecast.

[Jevo]

I believe the 0z HWRF is rolling out right now... Someone correct me if im wrong, but I believe this is it initialized



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[meriland23]

when is the oz euro run? CT time