ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bohaiboy]

As per Jim Cantore shifting westward and then taking aright hand turn and shooting the Yucatan channel without any land interaction at all to slow it down, then actually crossing the loop current(warm water) and intensifying.

[Hurricaneman]

Am I seeing this correctly, but the surface low is NE of the MLC or is a center reformation taking place, I guess we'll find out when recon gets there, and if its relocating down there what would the ramifications be on terms of track, maybe south of Hispaniola

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chrisjslucia]

I can see lightning over towards Martinique and the Meteo France and Barbados radar show the initial rain bands now adjacent to Barbados, Martinique and Dominica, in a long diagonal line. A wet time for the Lesser Antilles starts soon by the look of things.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[thetruesms]

Just to inject a little levity.....how many times has South Florida been squarely in a 5-day cone over the last 10 years? Quite a few, if my memory serves me. How many of those actually turned out to be hits 5 days later?

So, I know this was posted completely tongue-in-cheek, but I decided to quickly dig through the archived graphics just for funsies. Assuming I kept count correctly, and it's possible I'm off by one or two because my eyes started to cross a little after staring at so many maps, this is now the 44th time any part of Florida - including the Keys - has been within the cone (I just lumped the 3 and 5 day cones together, because it was easier and my inspiration was a joke ). 19 of the previous 43 times, the storm center was over Floridian soil. Doesn't sound like a good percentage off the bat. But, it's worth noting that most of these "misses" came from the edge of the 5-day cone nicking some part of Florida because by Day 5, the cone is pretty darn big - meanwhile, the actual forecast track wasn't in Florida's direction at all. Some were closer misses - i.e. a storm that passed through the Florida Straits, giving the Keys hurricane conditions, but never actually made a landfall; or a landfalling storm in Louisiana that headed east, only to have its last advisory given with the storm center in the Alabama Panhandle, about 10 miles west of the Florida border. Surely its remnants passed into Florida.

I suppose if I cared more, I would swing through again and definitively see how many times any of the forecast points were over Florida only to see NHC whiff on their track. But qualitatively, it wasn't very many - in the counting on one hand neighborhood. Ike and Irene were the notable misses, but not much beyond that.

And that, my friends, is what comes out of letting yourself be "inspired" by a facetious comment. I don't really recommend it, but if you want to try, I think I left a couple avenues for further research.

edit - also, this is only the 9th season with a public five day cone, so I didn't do 2003 to shave off a little effort.

[Blown Away]

Trend I'm seeing is the track sliding more right over Hispaniola. The current track angle goes over Hispaniola then through eastern Cuba. If that shifts another 80 miles north Isaac will skirt Hispaniola's north coast and miss Cuba and allow Isaac to move back over water sooner. Not going to take much and the trend is to the right. JMHO Only.

[floridasun78]

thetruesms when do you we south fl maybe see watch and keys?

[ozonepete]

when we could see watch for south fl and keys?

By sometime on Friday I would think, IF the current forecast track and strength hold up.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

when we could see watch for south fl and keys?

By sometime on Friday I would think, IF the current forecast track and strength hold up.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

ok ty i live in mobile home plus i work homedepot so most likely be busy if we ger watch

[ozonepete]

I can see lightning over towards Martinique and the Meteo France and Barbados radar show the initial rain bands now adjacent to Barbados, Martinique and Dominica, in a long diagonal line. A wet time for the Lesser Antilles starts soon by the look of things.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ok, hang in there! Looks like the first bands are coming in and there's a lot of rain and lightning in there. Intensifying systems are always dangerous. Stay safe my friend.

[floridasun78]

good night all i check in morning all on islands be safe

[brunota2003]

...Using Skeetobite's S2K Mark-Up Maps presents...

This is a graphic using the probabilities provided by the NHC in their wind graphics (8 pm August 22 version)...this is using the 20% lines for TS force (39 mph +), 50 knot (58 mph +) and hurricane (74 mph +) maps, morphed into one. This by no means is "official", just something extra to go with the cone. Forgive me if the lines don't match up perfectly, I use MS Paint to edit the maps! The reason there are no hurricane force winds shown, is that at this time, there is no area that is 20% or greater on the NHC map.

Likewise, I will be in the field the next few days, so I will not be able to update this until the weekend.

Enjoy!

Link to mark-up maps:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/S2k/s2kmaps.htm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

good night all i check in morning all on islands be safe

Ok. Sorry you will get overloaded at Home Depot. Surely there will be a big crush but hang in there. You take care of yourself and your family.

P.S. At least you came to the right place. Keep checking back and we will keep you informed.

[Blown Away]

These personal forecast disclaimers really clog up this board, just saying.

The angle over Hispaniola will make or break Isaac's intensity over the Bahamas and possibly the CONUS, my opinion only.

[ozonepete]

These personal forecast disclaimers really clog up this board, just saying.

The angle over Hispaniola will make or break Isaac's intensity over the Bahamas and possibly the CONUS, my opinion only.

Lol, yeah. Maybe we could come up with a shorter one or a pointer to the full one?

[Blown Away]

These personal forecast disclaimers really clog up this board, just saying.

The angle over Hispaniola will make or break Isaac's intensity over the Bahamas and possibly the CONUS, my opinion only.

Lol, yeah. Maybe we could come up with a shorter one or a pointer to the full one?

Very frustrating scrolling on the iPhone!

[blp]

Trend I'm seeing is the track sliding more right over Hispaniola. The current track angle goes over Hispaniola then through eastern Cuba. If that shifts another 80 miles north Isaac will skirt Hispaniola's north coast and miss Cuba and allow Isaac to move back over water sooner. Not going to take much and the trend is to the right. JMHO Only.

I am starting to bite a little on your argument as it certainly is trending closer to your thinking. Hell we could even see 2011 Irene again going through the Bahamas. The NHC had a similar cone early on to what we have now and then it shifted.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


here is your meatball.....or someone's face.... Looks like the LLC lost some lat....could be an illusion with all the convection building that way.....

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/avn-animated.gif


here is your meatball.....or someone's face.... Looks like the LLC lost some lat....could be an illusion with all the convection building that way.....

We'll know before too long Rock, Recon is on their way.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Latest GFS run trends more to the right. Bastardi's prediction of a 100kt cane land falling around the SC/NC border looks more plausible with the new run. Just saying.

[ozonepete]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/avn-animated.gif


here is your meatball.....or someone's face.... Looks like the LLC lost some lat....could be an illusion with all the convection building that way.....

Think you're right ROCK. Lost some latitude. Just so hard to read the satellite loops at night. That's why even NHC acknowledges that you can't be sure without visible or RECON. Let's see what RECON finds, but sure looks like it dropped a little south and has resumed a due west movement.