ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1241 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:42 am

boca wrote:Could that shortwave in the plains actually sharpen the trough along the east coast?


The shortwave is advecting a lot of vorticity that does indeed deepen the trough over the East Coast. In fact, the GFS has the trough deepening to a point where it becomes unstable and a cut-off low forms over the New England area.
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#1242 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:43 am

Currently it is cloudy with a pleasant "light breeze" out of the southeast in extreme eastern St. Petersburg near Tampa Bay.
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#1243 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:43 am

This is the 12zSteering layer for the Tropical disturbance, looks like the N movement should be cutoff soon and start drifting west.....but like AFM but center relocation can change things up. Since an invest has been declared it has moved 1.4 East and 3.7 North.

Image
Last edited by Rgv20 on Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1244 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:44 am

Pretty nice in Orlando but I see that radar....I am sure it will soon end with lots of rain
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#1245 Postby robbielyn » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:44 am

Alicia also was west to begin with 90.5 W. But the ridge did push her slowly wesward after she developed into a Tropical cyclone.
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#1246 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:46 am

I see the models are in great agreement ( sarcasm of course). ... although they have initialized it in the wrong spot. quite a bit off. I wonder if the 12z run they have it farther ne then the 00z runs.
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Re:

#1247 Postby boca » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:46 am

Rgv20 wrote:This is the 12zSteering layer for the Tropical disturbance, looks like the N movement should be cutoff soon and start drifting west.....but like AFM but center relocation can change things up. Since an invest has been declared it has moved 1.4 East and 3.7 North.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... g8dlm1.gif


What steering height do you look at with a system like this? Is it 700 to 850mb
Last edited by boca on Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1248 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:47 am

boca wrote:Could that shortwave in the plains actually sharpen the trough along the east coast?


It is definitely a possibility. It could be that shortwave could be stronger than what the other models outside the GFS may have intially had analyzed. Looking at satellite imagery, that shortwave looks rather decent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1249 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:47 am

Certainly a one sided system so far

Image
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#1250 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:49 am

Oops.
"888.5W"
That is from TEAL70's flight plan.
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Re: Re:

#1251 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:49 am

boca wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:This is the 12zSteering layer for the Tropical disturbance, looks like the N movement should be cutoff soon and start drifting west.....but like AFM but center relocation can change things up. Since an invest has been declared it has moved 1.4 East and 3.7 North.

What steering height do you look at with a system like this?



850mb for something so shallow right now...IMO, it looks like the north movement has stopped for now....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1252 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:49 am

Looking at the last couple of hours of images,it looks like it has stucked at the 26N position. Does anyone also see that?
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#1253 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:50 am

Could that help convection to catch up, if it slows(stops)?
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Re:

#1254 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:50 am

robbielyn wrote:Alicia also was west to begin with 90.5 W. But the ridge did push her slowly wesward after she developed into a Tropical cyclone.


stalled for several hours and ramped up to be a low end cat. 3! That was the first system that the TPC/NHC used probabilities too.
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Re: Re:

#1255 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:52 am

boca wrote:What steering height do you look at with a system like this?


At the 700-850mb when the pressure is above 1000mb...The 500-850mb (990-999mb) steering is essentially the same.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1256 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:52 am

This system is the sheared by upper lows half a storm, the most notable storm of this kind is Earl 1998 even though I'm not expecting anything like that I'm expecting something like an Alberto 2006 or Arlene 2005

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1257 Postby boca » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:53 am

Maybe since its been stuck at 26n it might start its westward track but that shortwave that nothjaxpro pointed out looks descent and could sharpen the east coast trough
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1258 Postby vaffie » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:53 am

For what it's worth Nam took it to Brownsville.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1259 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:54 am

cycloneye wrote:Looking at the last couple of hours of images,it looks like it has stucked at the 26N position. Does anyone also see that?


Yeap and the current steering layers would suggest WNW movement for today at least.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1260 Postby jinftl » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:54 am

Right now, no models are showing a rapidly intensifying hurricane regardless of track...most show a system at tropical storm intensity throughout. Your analysis of comparable storms seems on point.

Hurricaneman wrote:This system is the sheared by upper lows half a storm, the most notable storm of this kind is Earl 1998 even though I'm not expecting anything like that I'm expecting something like an Alberto 2006 or Arlene 2005

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