ATL: LESLIE - Models

[Jevo]

0z HWRF +72

[Riptide]

0z GEFS (Ensembles)

[floridasun78]

0z HWRF +72

hwrf have same with Isaac but never take that track

[bayoubebe]

What exactly do yall consider "major" and/or the "one?" Is that like a 3,4,5 cane?
I just got through with the majority of Isaac and it was bad! If Isaac would have been greater than a 1, I think it could have been devastation.

[Brent]

Major officially is Cat 3 or greater, we haven't had one yet this season. Gordon came close, 1 mph shy at 110

[Meso]

The 06z GFS (yes I know, it's the 06z) has shifted further west, in line with the shift the GFS has been doing, the ensembles alone have gone from all but one going out to sea, to a split between central US East Cost, North East, Canada and then of course still the ones sending it out to sea.

The 00z EURO took it just north of the 06z GFS.

There are a series of troughs coming off the US, but the timing and amplitude are changing a great deal between runs still, as can be expected at 7 to 10 days out.

[KWT]

Yep the models are treding westwards later on, I don't think we are done with those shifts westwards either...

Its a very complicated pattern being suggest by the models, with a cutoff low really complicating things around 120-144hrs.

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS: 240hr

[rainstorm]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Weatherbell forecast from YESTERDAY on Leslie before models starting correcting west.e coast idea not far fetched

[Ken711]

Are all the models in agreement on a curve? Is there any chance this could end up in the Gulf?

[rainstorm]

gulf seems rather unlikely.

[boca]

Leslie wont get passed 65 w to mant trough will curve it.NHC is the best.

[rainstorm]

I think the key for the models coming up is isaacs remains. the euro has them off florida at day 9 and the gfs has switched from them shooting ne into the north atlantic to diving se off georgia. that means alot. if isaac just shoots out into the north atlantic it can pull leslie well out to sea. howver, if isaac ends up off fla/ga then it can pull leslie nw.

[HurricaneBelle]

Are all the models in agreement on a curve? Is there any chance this could end up in the Gulf?

Yes it could end up in the Gulf.....of Maine.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Leslie wont get passed 65 w to mant trough will curve it.NHC is the best.

The NHC doesn't have this recurving just yet... It moves it north but doesn't yet move it North-East. Also if you look at the discussion they are still east of the Model consensus which leads me to believe they will move the track westward in baby steps as long as the Models keep shifting west. Will it get into the GoM highly unlikely, COULD it effect the East Coast at some point possibly. Still WAY too early to tell one way or the other.

[Blown Away]

12z Bams starting to sniff a west bend or loop in Leslie's track.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm models have really lost their consensus today.

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized



12z GFS +24

[Hurricaneman]

12zGFS clips the Hebert box at 48 hrs

[Jevo]

12z GFS +48