EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Why are they saying 130 mph peak in the disco and 135 mph peak in the tables?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Emilia should be a major hurricane by the time of the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

Emilia should be a major hurricane by the time of the next advisory.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/rgb0.jpg

Unless an EWRC starts sooner than expected.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Why are they saying 130 mph peak in the disco and 135 mph peak in the tables?

135 mph is at 5AM PDT and 130 mph is at 8AM PDT.

[Yellow Evan]

Why are they saying 130 mph peak in the disco and 135 mph peak in the tables?

135 mph is at 5AM PDT and 130 mph is at 8AM PDT.

NHC does not issue advisories at 5 AM (they give an intensity though).

[cycloneye]

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                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  09 JUL 2012    Time :   150000 UTC
      Lat :   12:39:00 N     Lon :  110:03:13 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.3 / 964.6mb/ 97.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.3     5.4     6.1

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

 Center Temp :  -5.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   62km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/05EP.GIF

[cycloneye]

Note= To keep the images without updating let's upload them with imageshack,tiny pic etc , and by doing it that way,we can conserve them to see the beauty of a powerful hurricane that doesn't threat any landmasses and to preserve them as this thread goes to the archieves forum when all is set and done,thanks to all for the cooperation on this.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Hurricane Daniel (85 mph), Hurricane Emilia (100 mph), and a disturbance that doesn't have a yellow circle for an unknown reason.

[CobraStrike]

Hurricane Emilia so far today in MIMIC TC... no signs of EWRC... yet.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think it will ERC for a while, at least 24-36 hours from now, if ever. Worth noting that if it ERC's while weakening, it will come crashing down like Rick did IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view.

[CobraStrike]

Looks like some dry air got entrained into Emilia as a result of RI:

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like some dry air got entrained into Emilia as a result of RI:

Looks like a phase of unarrested development to me.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

A truly epic hurricane. The EPAC is so awesome.

[Fyzn94]

This thing is looking like it's about to go BOOM even more than it already has!!!

[Yellow Evan]

T-numbers from about an hour ago

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.3 / 964.6mb/ 97.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.2 5.4 5.9

[euro6208]

hmm could emilia beat super typhoon guchol for strongest this year? we'll see...

current intensity: 110 knots category 3

emilia could well strengthen some more and i say she will peak at 125 knots before cooler waters takes its toll on this hurricane like all storms in the past.






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

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 UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  09 JUL 2012    Time :   170000 UTC
      Lat :   12:45:16 N     Lon :  110:23:12 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.3 / 964.5mb/ 97.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.2     5.5     5.9

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

 Center Temp : +13.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -64.2C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   62km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees

[dexterlabio]

A truly epic hurricane. The EPAC is so awesome.

that thick eye wall would prevent any possible EWRC for the mean time, i think. there is still a lot of time for it to be a lot stronger.