ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

Convection firing around that smaller vortex at 24.5N 87.5W, if that continues we could have lift off!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[caneman]

Doesn't look to be that much shear. Seems to be aiding right now.

As we all talked about yesterday...it should take one more DMAX to get this going and that was it. If a plane was in there now this would be a TS.

But more to your point: You can't look at a satellite picture and say there's not that much shear. That is a classic Gulf sheared system. This is what I was attempting to tell some of the posters yesterday....that shear would be an issue. NOT enough to kill it...or even keep it from developing...but all this talk of surprising everyone by how fast it got to major hurricane status is nonsense.

Again...look at the satellite presentation. All of the convection is on the east. 10-15 kt winds are cutting right through the circulation.

In essence...it is a CLASSIC early Gulf storm. It's a poster child.

I agree. See many of them just like this living on the West Coast of Florida. My statement was solely based on the fact that it seems to be wrapping up better. As you said not enough to kill it but perhaps aid it some. I don't expect anything more than a moderate to upper end T.S.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

You about nailed it NDG.

AFM, you think the shear will let up at all this weekend or stay status quo or even intensify some? Also good to see.you back this year. Always bring great knowledge to the table

[Ivanhater]

The silver line is indicative of what the NHC would use as a track..not always the case, but mostly.

[caneman]

The silver line is indicative of what the NHC would use as a track..not always the case, but mostly.

Well that would hit NO and then head East to Panama City

[vaffie]

I'm amazed they haven't called this a depression at least yet and given us some track forecasts.

[Air Force Met]

I agree. See many of them just like this living on the West Coast of Florida. My statement was solely based on the fact that it seems to be wrapping up better. As you said not enough to kill it but perhaps aid it some. I don't expect anything more than a moderate to upper end T.S.

Gotcha. Just want to make sure you aren't in the "There ain't no shear out there" club

And yes...I think in this case the shear is causing some baroclinic forcing. Not only is it shear but there is also really nice divergence aloft.

There is also a small upper low/sharp upper trof just SW of the sfc low. That will keep convection from being able to wrap all the way around for a while.

[Ivanhater]

I'm amazed they haven't called this a depression at least yet and given us some track forecasts.

That will likely happen in the next few hours when the plane is there

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So its now showing this go north, west a bit, north again right at Buras, then 90 degree right turn towards FL. Interesting

[Ivanhater]

Certainly lopsided, but still organizing

[robbielyn]

If shear wasn't an issue it wouldve already developed by now. Its classic shear in the Gulf this time of year. Making for slow development and we should be glad about that. We don't need a Katrina in June or anytime for that matter.

[Air Force Met]

You about nailed it NDG.

AFM, you think the shear will let up at all this weekend or stay status quo or even intensify some? Also good to see.you back this year. Always bring great knowledge to the table

I think shear will always be an issue...at least for the next 4-5 days if it takes the western route. There is a chance it relaxes as it gets past 93W or so that it will relax enough to allow for some development. Kinda like Claudette.

[Ivanhater]

So its now showing this go north, west a bit, north again right at Buras, then 90 degree right turn towards FL. Interesting

Well the NHC track but be a bit smoother than that, I'm not sure what they would do honestly. They really like the TVCN and usually follow pretty closely with that but with the Euro going against that, I am curious what kind of track they would do. Luckily, they have the 12z suite before they put out a track

[jlauderdal]

At this point, it seems the storm is headed northward and head faking both northeast and west, giving forecasters and computers some anxiety. But are air patterns moving fast enough that the northeast/west directional choice will be settled as the day goes by today?

no headfaking, its right on schedule as the system(no center) was supposed to be heading N at this point, as far as development goes that is on schedule..there was no true center so all this east west north south stuff was just guessing but today we seem to be well on the way if not already there to a center and hopefully a better solution..its a sheared system so the action is to the E, maybe that changes down the road but regardless there is plenty of moisture being run into florida today..if gfs verifies then that continues into next week if the others verify then that will decrease obviously, its been very wet in south florida since early may

[caneman]

8:00 update said T.S winds have been recorded already so probably go right to T.S. I would think.

[lrak]

Is there an ULL forming over SE TX? Will that help to stear it towards Florida? And do you guys see any swells likely for the TX coast? It seems to far North for a TX hit. I've never seen a storm that far North come back and hit TX. Been here 35 years

Thanks

[AHS2011]

I'd like to see this thing at peak intensity.

[Janie2006]

Okies, true that. However, Elena in 1985 is a perfect example of the sharp turns a storm can make. I'll grant that it wasn't in June of '85.

[vaffie]

The latest Canadian ensembles at 84 hours.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... 0&Type=pnm

[FutureEM]

Where this is located, and the lopsided shape should remind some people of Claudette '09.