ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[caneman]

Who's to say the system doesn't go straight north and wait to turn East or West until reaching the Northern Gulf coast shoreline?? Then the Central AND the Eastern or Western Gulf coasts get in on the fun.

That is what I'm thinking. MS. and East. You have to actually look at what is taking place as well from satellite and not just models. Moving North, ULL setting up on Texas coast.

There isn't an ULL on the Texas coast. There is no chance of rain here tomorrow and ULL's bring at least some scattered rain to areas around it.

Looks like it on W.V.

[South Texas Storms]

So there was a little shift north in track for the cmc,Houston area to around morgan city area.

Since when is Houston to Morgan City a "little shift"? This was a hefty change for the CMC. Question is though, was it a fluke, or the start of a trend?

EDIT: It's also not just the point of landfall, but the angle of the landfalling system. Overall, it was a big change for the CMC, who has spent the past few days hitting Texas.

CMC still missed the trough, which is important. It just found a weakness in the building ridge in the central U.S. this run.

[bamajammer4eva]

14 of 22 or 63.63% of GFS Ensembles show a landfall no further West than Louisiana according to this map before turning it North and northeast.

One shows a Near Houston hit followed by a turn to the NE-which means 68% chance it eventually turns NE

7 show an all the way west southwest to west northwest track further South.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Evil J, the cmc has been showing upper tx coast for numerous runs in a row. Around high island or so. A jog north to around pecan island or so is not that huge a jump. In the 5 day range you are splitting hairs. Basically the same as new Orleans to mobile. Instead of a wnw track more NW. Could just be picking up on a slightly weaker ridge. Galveston to mobile, that would be a huge shift east shift.

And caneman I see then ull on wv but all that is doing is creating more shear. Won't effect track or cause it to get picked up by trough.

[Aric Dunn]

disregard that little eddy. keep focus on the convection sse of there.

Problem is: There isn't a lot of convection out there over water and never the center. Tops out there near the center now are only around 30-35K feet...which means its mostly debris cirrus and stratiform showers. No latent heat being produced from those...and no lowering of pressure.

Also note the winds and pressure at buoy 42001. That's the lowest pressure and winds blowing away. Its massive divergence if the low tries to form further east...but it has the lowest pressure so that shows you (as do the winds) that the broad low pressure is still south of there.

We need at least another round of explosive convection. Some is firing of over the Yucatan. It will be interesting to see if it daisy-chains to the north later tonight along the convergence line. Not sure it will near the broad low center. There is some convergence aloft up there and tropical thunderstorms don't like that. That will have to change before we get a refire near the center.

agreed and it appears the convection thst has refired is already pulling thst vort back towards it. only a matter of time. yhe shear willl keep it in check an farther east than the models

[Hurricane Alexis]

Overnight AFD for Miami leans with the westward solution

THESE MODELS ALSO ALL AGREE THAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE
PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. FOR THIS REASON, WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF ANY DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
GULF IT DOES NOT SEEM METEOROLOGICALLY SOUND THAT THERE IS ANY
REASON THAT IT COULD LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, HAVE LEANED
MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH MAINLY AFFECTS THE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ACROSS THE REGION WITH STILL A CONTINUED
PULL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OVER S FL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[bamajammer4eva]

Evil J, the cmc has been showing upper tx coast for numerous runs in a row. Around high island or so. A jog north to around pecan island or so is not that huge a jump. In the 5 day range you are splitting hairs. Basically the same as new Orleans to mobile. Instead of a wnw track more NW. Could just be picking up on a slightly weaker ridge. Galveston to mobile, that would be a huge shift east shift.

And caneman I see then ull on wv but all that is doing is creating more shear. Won't effect track or cause it to get picked up by trough.

According to the NWS Tallahassee 408 am cdt discussion

The new 00 UTC Canadian, on the
other hand, has shifted quite dramatically from the past 2 cycles
from a western track into TX (similar to the ECMWF) to a slow
northward motion into LA and MS.

But yet they have not as of 4AM seen the Euro-someone provide them a link lol

Therefore, believe it is imperative to wait for the 00 UTC ECMWF
to arrive tonight to come up with a "reasonable" fcst, and if it
sticks to its recent westerly track into TX, our CWA would trend
towards the hotter and drier GFS after some lingering moisture on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

[Clint_TX]

That little naked swirl that we were laughing at earlier is developing some beautiful low cloud banding structures now. The cloud tops around the center have not started really cooling yet, but it is developing a nice compact organized structure. I wonder if this will turn out to be the new center by tomorrow.

Looks like it....

Offshore Data at 09Z Jun 23


DAY/ ID Latit Longit Temp Dewp Wind Gust MaxGst Press PTend SeaT Wvht WvPd FULLID
HOUR (-degrees-) (---C---) (---degr/knots---) (millibars) (C) (m) (s)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23/09 3ETA8 23.3 -88.1 26.0 220 22 1003.0 -2.0 28.0 3ETA8

[Hurricane Alexis]

06z GFS still being the outlier here forecasting a landfall just south of Tampa and another TC forming of the SE coast at 72hr

[ronjon]

Broad center tightening up. Near 25N-87.5W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/flash-rb-long.html

[Hurricane Alexis]

Broad center tightening up. Near 25N-87.5W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/flash-rb-long.html

Convection trying to fire up near the center?

[GCANE]

TCFA Posted

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... s&PROD=gif

[caneman]

Cyclone Mike, sure it will. If it stays in place and this develops it will push it due North. In fact, if you look at W.V. that is exactly what is occurring now.

[GCANE]

An ULL has formed to the NW at 28N 94W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[tailgater]

best Vorticity so far by far Could make a big shift in the models if center is found this far east, stay tuned.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like it's gonna be like TS Alberto in '06 in the gulf with most of the convection away from the COC.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[caneman]

An ULL has formed to the NW at 28N 94W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

yep, I and someone else mentioned. Might keep this in check and I think steer more Northerly.

[tolakram]

0Z model roundup. June 23rd

48 hours









Landfall

[tailgater]

An ULL has formed to the NW at 28N 94W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Shows up clearly here, anybody know if it was forecast by any of the models?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF

[tolakram]

Looks like convection finally firing over what may be the center. A lot of maybes.



loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1