ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks alot like Cindy 05 in track

[caneman]

Can anyone give me a reason why CMC is even been given any credence in this thread? Further, take a look at what is happening now (which isn't much) and GFS has been about spot on.

maybe because the CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET, NAM, EURO have all been showing a west solution rather than the east GFS solution. thats 5 against 1.....

But what if the GFS is so bad ass that it can take on all 5 of those models

Sometimes it's better to walk alone. If the others are with the CMC - I'm going the other way
But........ Big shift in other models tonight towards the GFS solution. Looking more likely East of NOLA.

[caneman]

FWIW

Found this on Joe Bastardis Twitter page.

http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/ ... 6/debb.png

He had it heading towards Florida about 12 hours ago ;0

[Cuda17]

There is a nice naked "swirly" at 88w 24n... evident on the false color RGB satellite loop.

[Weatherfreak000]

Significant model shifts from GFDL and CMC. HWRF probably soon to follow, GFS out to lunch.

[caneman]

Significant model shifts from GFDL and CMC. HWRF probably soon to follow, GFS out to lunch.

Not out to lunch. Much closer solution than some of the models taking it to Texas or Mexico. Still far too early to tell exactly.

[Cuda17]

oh wow... looks like convection might have just started on that naked swirly, on the east side.

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 24 hours:

[ROCK]

that door is closing quik at 24hr

[stormhunter7]

agree, there is a storm a tower firing on that vortex/possible COC (24n 87.9w) that we saw shoot out this evening. Just wish we could tell how the air just to the NW of that vortex is. where the upper winds collide.. i'm still thinking its too warm to get any convection going over there.. 24.5n 89w (area)

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 48 hours out:

[Cuda17]

agree, there is a storm a tower firing on that vortex/possible COC that we saw shoot out this evening. Just wish we could tell how the air just to the NW of that vortex is. where the upper winds collide.. i'm still thinking its too warm to get any convection going over there.. 24.5n 89w (area)

Yep... that's the one I see too. The IR channel 2 shows it very well also.

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[ROCK]

that quite a bit deeper than last run....996mb in there

[Ivanhater]

Even if it does turn west on the Euro...this run is going to scare this heck out of Nola to Pcola residents.

[Evil Jeremy]

And now, your EURO Halftime entertainment, the HWRF!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Basically drifts around the WGOM without getting close to landfall.

[vaffie]

HWRF out, goes close to New Orleans, then drifts SW-ward to close to the Tex/Mexico border by 5 days.

[stormhunter7]

Thats gonna cause some nasty beach erosion along northern central gulf coast! But, then again, big swells for me in PCB!

[ROCK]

Even if it does turn west on the Euro...this run is going to scare this heck out of Nola to Pcola residents.

and about a gallon of water all over you guys.....

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 72 hours out:



96 hours out:



So the EURO bucks the east trend of the GFDL and CMC.

[lebron23]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... TNA096.gif

96 HRS Texas Bound