ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Up to 70%

DATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

70%, very much agreeable.

[NDG]

Yeap, I agree with convection now increasing right over or very near the surface low unlike earlier today.

[NDG]

Barbados winds now SE at 20 kts, suggesting the wave axis is approaching 60W. No evidence of an LLC, and convection remains fairly far-removed from the wave axis due to persistent westerly shear.

Winds in Barbados shortly after your post went back north from due east from an 80 degree angle suggesting me that the trough axis is still closer to 58-59W.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wouldn't be surprised to see this become a tropical depression tomorrow night if organization persists. Deep convection has began firing atop its circulation, which is steadily becoming better defined.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe is since 6 PM under an orange alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms while Martinica is under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 98L

11/2345 UTC 12.8N 58.6W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/1745 UTC 12.0N 58.3W TOO WEAK 98L

[colbroe]

The latest coordinates looks like this developing system will pass right over Barbados .

[Gustywind]

Just one hour between the two latest weather forecast and Meteo-France Guadeloupe has raised its level of alert. Plenty of rain could occur during the next 24h and maybe stalling till at least... Sunday. Let's see if this wet wetter scenario pan's out.

WEATHER FORECAST. Guadeloupe in orange for heavy rains and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr 11.10.2012



A very active tropical wave approaches the Caribbean arc during the next night, hence the passage in vigilance orange. Time breaks down during night, with frequent and sometimes sustained and stormy showers. This bad weather continues throughout the day and until Sunday at least.
A very active tropical wave approaches the Caribbean arc during the next night. Time degrades with frequent and sometimes sustained and stormy showers. This bad weather continues throughout the day with a significant strengthening of the south-easterly wind. Its average speed is around 35 km/h the next night and up to 40 km/h on the coast and on the heights. Winds gusting to 70 km/h are also likely close to the strongest stormy grains.
Furthermore, this strengthening of wind is accompanied by a degradation of the sea which becomes strong and dangerous, mainly on the Atlantic seaboard. No free improving conditions before Sunday at least.
The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already wet soils can cause strong accumulations of water and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 125N, 588W, 30, 1006, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, where is Abajan? Any news from him? We will be glad to have infos from its location because of 98L is not so far from Barbados.

[abajan]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The latest coordinates looks like this developing system will pass right over Barbados .

Yes but with the convection so displaced from the center, I think most of the heavy weather will pass to our northeast (at least that's the way it looks to me right now.)

[abajan]

@Gustywind
Nothing at all happening here now but I'll keep you guys updated if things change.

[Gustywind]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The latest coordinates looks like this developing system will pass right over Barbados .

Yes but with the convection so displaced from the center, I think most of the heavy weather will pass to our northeast (at least that's the way it looks to me right now.)

Glad to see you Thanks for you post. You're maybe right, i'm coincived about that too concerning the heavier weather. Anyway, all the islands should be on their guard as 98L could bring plenty of rain in the Windwards/ Leewards.

[cycloneye]

For all the friends who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands from Trinidad & Tobago,all the way up the Lesser Antilles chain to Puerto Rico,I made a thread for us to post about Preparations/Observations etc. Go to the sticky thread at the top.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113923&p=2279724#p2279724

[colbroe]

On the radar looks like we are in a heavy cell i am on the East in Barbados and nothing is happening no rain no wind

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 125N, 588W, 30, 1006, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

ATCF updated the position of the 00z Best Track.

2012101200, , BEST, 0, 124N, 586W, 30, 1006, LO

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Scratch my earlier comment. With the way the storm is organizing now...we may see classification as early as 5am EDT or 11am EDT.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well certainly looks like it is on it's way to being named as I was thinking from a couple of days ago looking at this area. Should head NW and bring plenty of nasty conditions to the leewards and Puerto Rico. With the shear around we wouldn't expect it to get very strong until possibly moving north of the islands.

[brunota2003]

the center will pass north east of barbados, the heavy rain will miss this island.

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/Radars.ph ... portee=400

It's this link right here that is popping up the login prompt.

[Tyler Penland]

What browser are you guys using?
I used to get that message from time to time on Firefox but haven't had a problem since I swapped to full-time Chrome.

BTW, I wouldn't be surprised to see TD17 by 11AM EDT tomorrow at the rate things are going now. Looking really good, especially compared to last night/this morning.