ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Tampa_God]

I was going to say, the models have been all over the place with this disturbance. Models were forecasting a BOC storm, then a east Gulf storm, then a central Gulf storm. For a storm that just recently became an invest, putting much faith in any of these models right now is foolish.

[Javlin]

Well was out in D'iberville(old N.Biloxi) this afternoon and C-130's in the air a lot tag-team up something you do not see to often and not much distance between them.Having known this was out there makes you wonder....

[ROCK]

Gcane your right that anti-cyclone is right on top of it...creating an ideal environment..ie reducing shear

[Hurricane Andrew]

Seems like it strengthens from 168 to 192.

[GCANE]

Gcane your right that anti-cyclone is right on top of it...creating an ideal environment..ie reducing shear

Tomorrow morning could see some big convection fire up.

[pricetag56]

how does an anticyclone look?

[ROCK]

I was going to say, the models have been all over the place with this disturbance. Models were forecasting a BOC storm, then a east Gulf storm, then a central Gulf storm. For a storm that just recently became an invest, putting much faith in any of these models right now is foolish.

Maybe so but you cannot deny the trend right now....maybe the trof picks it up. However we got one of the best models out there flipping to the extreme like this we have to take notice...along with the CMC showing the same track for a day and half...now the EURO flips. I am not being foolish I am be vigilant...

[HURRICANELONNY]

As I told my friend yesterday. As soon as 96L gets going the rain will stop here in S. FL. They had it at 80% here last night. The NWS always gets hexed when they put chances that high. We have to get up on his roof today. Guess what. NO RAIN. All organizing with 96L. Should head north then west. Most likely Texas. They need the rain.

[ROCK]

how does an anticyclone look?

look at current shear map...see that big swirling thing by the Yuc...thats an anti-cyclone...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Nimbus]

We have been watching this steady WNW migration for a while now, there was even a hint of circulation way back near -80W 16N. The convection will probably stay off to the east till it has a chance to wrap as the center moves a little further NW from the coast. Latest burst of convection in the Yuc channel should die off I don't think we will see a deep center form further east.

[cycloneye]

Low pressure just off north coast of Yucatan.

[tolakram]

Folks, lets take most of this conversation to the discussion thread. This thread should be restricted to model output and comments directly related to that output. Thanks!

[GCANE]

how does an anticyclone look?

Its the clockwise wind vectors shown in this image

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

What it indicates is a raising of the tropopause which allows a vorticity column (called PV - potential vorticity) to expand vertically.

The vertical expansion causes faster spinning due to conservation of angular momentum.

The old spinning skater pulling in arms analogy.

[pricetag56]

how does an anticyclone look?

look at current shear map...see that big swirling thing by the Yuc...thats an anti-cyclone...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

ok thanks yea its pretty obvious now lol

[ROCK]

how does an anticyclone look?

Its the clockwise wind vectors shown in this image

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

What it indicates is a raising of the tropopause which allows a vorticity column (called PV - potential vorticity) to expand vertically.

The vertical expansion causes faster spinning due to conservation of angular momentum.

The old spinning skater pulling in arms analogy.

I called it a swirly thing....

[pricetag56]

how does an anticyclone look?

Its the clockwise wind vectors shown in this image

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

What it indicates is a raising of the tropopause which allows a vorticity column (called PV - potential vorticity) to expand vertically.

The vertical expansion causes faster spinning due to conservation of angular momentum.

The old spinning skater pulling in arms analogy.

Thanks that was very helpful

[RL3AO]

Heres the GFS 500mb streamlines.



The anti-cyclonic spin is pretty clear. This lets a developing tropical cyclone develop good outflow.

[pricetag56]

so basically it creates a good environment for it

[AHS2011]

Debby by tomorrow?

[RL3AO]

so basically it creates a good environment for it

You get rising air with the thunderstorms but eventually when it hits the top of the troposphere it needs somewhere else to go since it can't keep going up. It needs to get vented away from the center of the storm. The anticyclone acts as a bit exhaust system creating outflow.