WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.8N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.5N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.1N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 135.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. //
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THIS ANALYSIS IS CAPTURED IN A 131653Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
OUTLINES THE COMPACT CONVECTION AND A NOTCH FEATURE LEADING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AMSU-B IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INTERPOLATED BETWEEN
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 07 DEGREES TO THE NORTHWEST OF A MESOSCALE
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ABOUT 05 DEGREES
TO THE NORTHWEST IS THE REMNANT OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT IS MOMENTARILY CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS A
DEEPENING TUTT CELL THAT IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 05W
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
VERY WARM (OVER 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
PERSIST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING STR WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SST'S. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN TO
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK INTENSITY AT THE APEX OF THE TURN THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING
SST'S AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. BY TAU 120, ANOTHER DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE YELLOW SEA AND WEAKEN
THE STEERING STR ENOUGH TO FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO HIGHER LATITUDES. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST,
MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH GFDN AS THE LEFT OUTLIER AND NOGAPS THE
RIGHT OUTLIER AND MAKING THE TIGHTER TURN POLEWARD. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE RE-CURVATURE SCENARIO SINCE ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. //
NNNN
Wow, if you're just looking at visible sat images all you can see are high, cold cloud tops...and you'll never know there is a perfect eye coming out of it... At first I thought this is only gonna make at most Cat1, but now I can easily expect it to grow into a major one. 
