LarryWx wrote:1) The tracks graphic doesn't match the text lat/long.
2) Ships model is so deceivingly bullish almost every time there's an invest that it has almost no credibilty. It assumes there's already a TC. Why do they even run the dern thing when there's no TC?
Hi Larry,
1. It might be that the SFWMD map is pulling from an old storm or is going out to 7 days.
2. Yeah, when they designed the SHIPS database they included only systems that become named storms. So the SHIPS database is working with the assumption that it will get to a storm because there are no verification cases that didn't go past invest or TD status.
Best thing is to look at the text product to see what factors are causing the intensity change (especially the normalized individual contribution to intensity change at the bottom).
Here is the latest:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972012 10/06/12 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 49 55 55 56 59 63 63
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 49 55 55 56 59 63 63
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 48 50 52 55 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 13 13 15 19 22 25 22 25 29 36
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 0 0 1
SHEAR DIR 331 343 301 285 298 291 305 269 286 267 281 248 255
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 158 158 161 161 160 158 156 156 155 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 143 141 141 144 144 141 136 132 131 130 132
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 10 10 11 11
700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 54 55 56 61 65 63 59 50 45 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 28 19 15 -7 -29 -37 -38 -12 -22 -19 -22
200 MB DIV -2 -13 -20 -10 -11 -14 15 24 21 2 5 19 -8
700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 1 0 5 2 -4 -7 -5 -3
LAND (KM) 347 279 214 179 156 213 321 416 454 487 474 466 429
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.5 21.2 21.2 21.1 21.7 22.7 23.8 24.6 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.8
LONG(DEG W) 67.2 67.9 68.6 69.2 69.7 70.7 71.8 72.7 73.5 73.9 74.3 74.6 74.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 4 2 2 1 2
HEAT CONTENT 86 96 105 106 102 87 75 74 66 61 65 68 72
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 904 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 30. 30. 31. 34. 38. 38.
Looks like shear would be significantly higher by day 5, and the SST potential seems to be dominating the intensity calc late in the period. I personally think that's high. Although upper shear isn't a huge factor, it looks like most of the intensity change is coming from SST potential plus change from the sample mean.
MW