91S INVEST 260121 0600 10.3S 116.1E SHEM 15 1009
SIO: Tropical Low 16U
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5S
116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 549 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 91S TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 549 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 91S TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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cycloneye
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SPAC: Tropical Low 16U
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 16U
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 16U
Tropical Low 16U, currently intensifying, likely to impact the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday as a Category 2 system.
Warning zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby.
Watch zone
Bidyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland areas to the warning area.
Cancelled zone
Mitchell Plateau area
Details of Tropical Low 16U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity
Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location
within 55 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 120.5 degrees East, estimated to be 350 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 400 kilometres west northwest of Derby.
Movement
south southeast at 24 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Low 16U is currently located to the north northwest of Broome and is intensifying. The system is expected to move east southeast and develop into a tropical cyclone overnight Friday.
16U is in a favourable environment and is forecast to intensify to a category 2 system Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday, most likely between Broome and Cockatoo Island. Once 16U has crossed the coast it is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning over the southern Kimberley.
Warning zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby.
Watch zone
Bidyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland areas to the warning area.
Cancelled zone
Mitchell Plateau area
Details of Tropical Low 16U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity
Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location
within 55 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 120.5 degrees East, estimated to be 350 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 400 kilometres west northwest of Derby.
Movement
south southeast at 24 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Low 16U is currently located to the north northwest of Broome and is intensifying. The system is expected to move east southeast and develop into a tropical cyclone overnight Friday.
16U is in a favourable environment and is forecast to intensify to a category 2 system Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday, most likely between Broome and Cockatoo Island. Once 16U has crossed the coast it is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning over the southern Kimberley.
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