97S INVEST 251113 1800 10.0S 114.0E SHEM 15 0
SIO: INVEST 97S
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StormWeather
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S
Subtrop wrote:97S INVEST 251113 1800 10.0S 114.0E SHEM 15 0
This one is likely Tropical Low 02U from the Australian Region
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Just an average cyclone tracker
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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StormWeather
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S
TCFA from the JTWC on this
WTXS21 PGTW 171330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 129.5E TO 8.6S 133.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 129.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 131
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 170907Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181330Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 129.5E TO 8.6S 133.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 129.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 131
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 170907Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181330Z.//
NNNN
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Just an average cyclone tracker
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S
ASCAT pass around 00Z last evening indicates a tight circulation beneath the convection. We are calling it a TD on our advisories.
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