WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

[Sciencerocks]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://x.com/ferragamowx/status/2043196834831548888

[Guamphoon]

Aren't they gonna send a recon into this?
This is a pretty significant threat to US installation

They shutdown all Guam based recon in the late 80s. Too expensive I guess. I wish we had them since storms here are absolute monsters.

Hopefully drone technology will be cheap enough to justify basing them out of Guam. So much potential data to collect.

Also, first warnings for the Marianas, NWS seems to think Guam is now spared Typhoon force winds.

A Typhoon Warning has been issued for Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Guam.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=PQ1&product=TCP&site=gum



JMA says this is 90 kts?

[Hayabusa]

For 06z I got a DT of 7.5, WMG eye embd in CMG and surrounded by CMG, but this is w/o BF adding 0.5 BF gives 8.0 which I am hesistant to

[mrbagyo]

no way this is just a 115 knots Cat 4

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye is +20C... CDG showing up... did the agencies miss the eye or something? This has definitely intensified by more than 5 knots compared to the previous advisory lol

[mrbagyo]

041
WTPQ31 PGUM 120652
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Sinlaku (04W) Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP042026
452 PM ChST Sun Apr 12 2026

...TYPHOON SINLAKU CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Guam.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Pagan and Alamagan.
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Fananu in Chuuk State.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ulul in Chuuk State.
A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Ulul in Chuuk State.
A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Guam.

A Typhoon Warning means that damaging winds of 39 mph or more are
expected within 24 hours. For Fananu, typhoon force winds of 74 mph
or more are occurring or imminent. For Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
the onset of typhoon force winds are forecast for Tuesday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within 24 hours.

A Typhoon Watch means that typhoon conditions, including winds of 74
mph or more, are possible within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions,
including winds of 39 to 73 mph, are possible within 48 hours.

Residents of Agrihan should carefully monitor the progress of Typhoon
Sinlaku.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...10.3N 150.6E

About 135 miles north-northeast of Ulul
About 160 miles northwest of Fananu
About 210 miles north-northwest of Chuuk
About 450 miles east-southeast of Guam
About 450 miles southeast of Rota
About 465 miles southeast of Tinian
About 465 miles southeast of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...125 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...the center of Typhoon Sinlaku was located
near Latitude 10.3 degrees North and Longitude 150.6 degrees East.
Sinlaku is moving north-northwest at 9 mph. It is expected to make a
slight turn toward the northwest with little change in forward speed
through Monday as it heads toward the Marianas.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 125 mph. Sinlaku is forecast to
intensify through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 60 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
245 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 PM ChST early this evening, followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 PM ChST tonight.

$$

Montvila

[mrbagyo]

0600z got revised to 130 knots

04W SINLAKU 260412 0600 10.3N 150.6E WPAC 130 921

SATCON is at 127 knots
ADT 9.1 is at 134.8 knots

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR SINLAKU (04W) 2026
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 04120311
SATCON: MSLP = 930 hPa MSW = 127 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 124.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 116 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 375 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.5 knots Source: IR

[Hayabusa]

Our first ADT raw T# 8.0 since Surigae, also both happened in the month of April

2026APR12 053000 6.5 929.5 127.0 6.5 6.9 7.7 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.47 -80.25 EYE 19 IR 64.9 10.23 -150.67 ARCHER HIM-9 16.7
2026APR12 061000 6.5 929.5 127.0 6.5 6.9 7.8 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.16 -80.71 EYE 20 IR 64.9 10.28 -150.64 ARCHER HIM-9 16.7
2026APR12 063000 6.7 924.3 132.2 6.7 7.0 7.8 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.31 -80.35 EYE 19 IR 64.9 10.32 -150.62 ARCHER HIM-9 16.7
2026APR12 070000 6.8 921.6 134.8 6.8 7.3 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.73 -82.11 EYE 20 IR 64.9 10.33 -150.59 ARCHER HIM-9 16.7
2026APR12 073000 6.9 915.9 137.4 6.9 7.4 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.69 -82.82 EYE 19 IR 64.9 10.38 -150.55 ARCHER HIM-9 16.7

[doomhaMwx]

Here comes the CDG ring at DMAX!

[dexterlabio]

One thing that sets apart Surigae and Sinlaku (both April super typhoons) is that Surigae bombed out near the Philippines while Sinlaku does so in the middle of the Western Pacific. Sinlaku is also most likely going to be a long tracker compared to Surigae.

[mrbagyo]

One thing that sets apart Surigae and Sinlaku (both April super typhoons) is that Surigae bombed out near the Philippines while Sinlaku does so in the middle of the Western Pacific. Sinlaku is also most likely going to be a long tracker compared to Surigae.

Sinlaku is maintaining a significantly warmer eye compared to Surigae. If I recall correctly, Surigae’s eye temperature generally stayed in the high teens and only occasionally reached around 20°C. In contrast, Sinlaku has already exceeded those values and is exhibiting greater stability.

[Subtrop]

TPPN10 PGTW 120901

A. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)

B. 12/0830Z

C. 10.40N

D. 150.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 5.5. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


THOMPSON

[Subtrop]

NMC 0600UTC 68m/s

Typhoon Message
20260412 14:33
National Meteorological Center No.116
Analysis Time: Apr. 12th 06 UTC
Name of TC: SINLAKU
Num. of TC: 2604
Current Location: 10.3°N 150.7°E
2-min. Average Max. Wind Speed: 68m/s（244.8km/h）
Central Pressure: 905hPa
Radius of 34knots Winds: NE 400km SE 380km SW 380km NW 400km
Radius of 50knots Winds: NE 120km SE 120km SW 120km NW 120km
Radius of 64knots Winds: NE 80km SE 80km SW 80km NW 80km
Forecast movement:next 24hrs SINLAKU will moving NW at speed of 17km/h

[Hayabusa]

TPPN10 PGTW 120901

A. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)

B. 12/0830Z

C. 10.40N

D. 150.57E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 5.5. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


THOMPSON

If only there is an updated dvorak procedure where a colder shade that is CDG can be used

[aspen]

Didn’t expect to wake up and see a ~T#8.0 super typhoon this morning, wow. Probably the first of many beasts this year with the strong El Niño on the way.

[mrbagyo]

CIMSS - 2026APR12 094000 7.5 896.4 155.0 7.5 7.6 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.00 -83.09 EYE 19 IR 64.9 10.55 -150.50 ARCHER HIM-9 16.8
NOAA - 2026APR12 092000 7.6 892.9 158.0 7.6 7.6 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.12 -83.19 EYE 20 IR 69.2 10.51 -150.55 ARCHER HIM-9 16.8

106.09 to 106.31°C temp delta (on geostationary ir satellite imagery) is insane

Surigae's delta peaked at 105.19
2021APR17 104000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -84.85 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.49 ARCHER HIM-8 19.1

Yutu peaked at 103.93
2018OCT24 131000 7.5 900.4 155.0 7.5 7.4 7.8 3.7T/24hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.13 -80.80 EYE 21 IR 71.4 14.72 -145.95 ARCHER HIM-8 18.3

Haiyan on MTSAT peaked at 106.37 to 106.42 (depending on source)
NOAA - 2013NOV07 185700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 21.82 -84.55 EYE 24 IR 103. 10.76 -126.48 COMBO MTSAT1 20.2
CIMSS - 2013NOV07 190000 7.5 901.4 155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 21.82 -84.60 EYE 24 IR 101.2 10.72 -126.43 COMBO MTSAT1 20.2

[doomhaMwx]

There's a robust rainband half-encircling the eyewall, but it doesn't seem to be a concern for EWRC yet.

[Hayabusa]

TPPN10 PGTW 121155

A. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 10.89N

D. 150.32E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET YIELDS 6.5. PT YIELDS 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


THOMPSON

[dexterlabio]

One thing that sets apart Surigae and Sinlaku (both April super typhoons) is that Surigae bombed out near the Philippines while Sinlaku does so in the middle of the Western Pacific. Sinlaku is also most likely going to be a long tracker compared to Surigae.

Surigae might be used as some kind of antithesis to the existence of an early season Cat 5 in the Pacific as a hallmark El Niño feature. Surigae formed in 2021 amid a moderate La Niña; weirdly for a cold ENSO year however, 2021 featured a handful of Category 5 STYs, from April (Surigae) to December (Rai).

Still, I think El Niño Pacific howlers like Sinlaku right here are distinct in the sense that rake in more ACE, and originate farther in the eastern West Pacific.