WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#101 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 11, 2026 12:40 pm

I can see Sinlaku getting around 25 to 30 on ACE and if that is the case, it would be a great start for WPAC as the El Niño situation will cause the basin to get a lot.
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#102 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 11, 2026 12:48 pm

Boom.

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#103 Postby sasha_B » Sat Apr 11, 2026 1:49 pm

Getting awfully close to a T5.5 already...

A. TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 11/1731Z
C. 9.18N
D. 151.20E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A CF OF
5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT
YIELDS 5.0. DBO PT. REANALYZED PREVIOUS POSITION DUE TO NEW DATA
AVAILABLE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1534Z 9.03N 151.40E AMS2


Edit: NOAA/OSPO has these remarks on their 1730z Dvorak fix:
11/1730Z: LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. 1535Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWED WELL-DEFINED EYE AND SOLID EYEWALL RING. CDO TOPS AS COLD AS -96 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW VERY GOOD ALQDS. MET AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION. SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES.
.

JMA has upgraded to Very Strong Typhoon (85 kt 10-minute sustained, 950 hPa), while JTWC has 95 kt / 957 hPa.
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#104 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Apr 11, 2026 3:00 pm

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#105 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Apr 11, 2026 3:34 pm

:eek:
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#106 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 11, 2026 3:54 pm

New peak at 130kt and track over Rota.

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#107 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Apr 11, 2026 3:59 pm

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#108 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 11, 2026 4:45 pm

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/2043073937060286499

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#109 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Apr 11, 2026 5:53 pm

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#110 Postby sasha_B » Sat Apr 11, 2026 5:55 pm

Raw ADT values from UW-CIMSS have jumped to T6.7 since it started spotting the eye correctly. The eye has warmed to MG/DG and remains embedded in W with an unbroken surrounding ring of CMG, supporting a subjective T6.0～6.5. I have a feeling Sinlaku is not going to take another 48 hours to reach 130 kt.
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#111 Postby Guamphoon » Sat Apr 11, 2026 5:57 pm

It is looking strong, latest JTWC track shows a large shift now well north of Guam, which is good for us, but bad for the CNMI.

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#112 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 11, 2026 6:24 pm

Look at this specimen lurking in the Saipan cam. :D

https://www.earthcam.com/world/northern ... cam=saipan

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#113 Postby Guamphoon » Sat Apr 11, 2026 6:32 pm

I remember seeing coverage of the Google deepmind model several days ago that showed Sinlaku going well north of all the official predictions and it seems to be doing just that.

Neural networks are starting to really beat physics based models.
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#114 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Apr 11, 2026 6:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Look at this specimen lurking in the Saipan cam. :D

https://i.imgur.com/VS6Maox.jpeg

Jumping spiders are boss :lol:
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#115 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Apr 11, 2026 7:30 pm

 https://x.com/i/status/2043118482112319499


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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#116 Postby Hurricane2000 » Sat Apr 11, 2026 7:37 pm

:uarrow: C5 soon.
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#117 Postby ljmac75 » Sat Apr 11, 2026 7:37 pm

Curious what they'll go with for the 00z intensity...
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#118 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 11, 2026 7:43 pm

Cat 3 now.

04W SINLAKU 260412 0000 9.9N 151.2E WPAC 110 944
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#119 Postby Guamphoon » Sat Apr 11, 2026 7:57 pm

If this becomes a CAT5 before the 17th, would it be the earliest storm to do so? I think Surigae was on April 17th, but this has room to beat that. But were there any earlier CAT5s that I am missing?
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

#120 Postby Hurricane2000 » Sat Apr 11, 2026 7:59 pm

Guamphoon wrote:If this becomes a CAT5 before the 17th, would it be the earliest storm to do so? I think Surigae was on April 17th, but this has room to beat that. But were there any earlier CAT5s that I am missing?

Typhoon Ophelia of 1958
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