#56 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 27, 2024 4:13 pm
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 120 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TYPHOON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (GREATER
THAN 26 C) AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE WESTERN
PHILIPPINE SEA. NEAR TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD, INTRODUCING STRONG VWS (20-30
KTS), BEGINNING THE INITIAL STAGES OF A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
AFTER TAU 48 AND WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD, COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF 26N. BY
TAU 72, COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST, STARTING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
THROUGH TAU 120 AS VWS INCREASES ABOVE 30 KTS AND FURTHER SHEARS AWAY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, CAUSING THE VORTEX TO BECOME DECOUPLED.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT TY 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120 AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTRODUCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
TRACK, CLOSER TO MAINLAND JAPAN, HOWEVER, THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED THAT TY 01W WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST WHILE UNDERGOING THE EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING
AT TAU 72. THE TAU 36 AND TAU 48 CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 80NM AND 100NM, RESPECTIVELY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE,
HOWEVER, JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE, GFS, ECMWF, AND COAMPS-TC FORECASTS
WEAKENING FROM TAU 36 UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here