WPAC: EWINIAR - Remnants

[Hayabusa]

01W ONE 240526 0000 14.0N 121.4E WPAC 50 993

upped to 55

01W EWINIAR 240526 0000 14.1N 121.4E WPAC 55 990

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1794567238651146557

[doomhaMwx]

Not sure about the quality of the data, but Alabat AWS just registered a wind speed of 126 kph (35 m/s; 68 kts) at ~6m elev. Would support a typhoon-strength system if verified!

 https://x.com/doomhaMwx/status/1794616772399907191

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND A WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND FOLLOW A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BETWEEN TAU 72-96 MAY SWAY THE SYSTEM ON A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM
MARGINALLY CLOSER TO OKINAWA THAN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
BETWEEN TAU 96-120. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS FUELED BY LOW SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE PEAK OF 100KTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OVER
LAND THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PREVIOUS TWELVE HOURS. BETWEEN TAU
72-96, AN MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ENCROACH ON THE SYSTEM AND
INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE FINAL 96-120 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST, INCREASING VWS EXPONENTIALLY. SSTS ARE COOL AND
UNFAVORABLE NORTH OF 26N, SO THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMAL
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK DIRECTION AS THE TS 01W ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STR AND CONTINUES NORTHEAST. THE HIGH TRACK
CONFIDENCE IS SUPPORTED BY THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD WHICH IS NOW ONLY
75NM BY TAU 120. CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO
VARIATIONS IN THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED NORTHWESTWARD DEVIATION FROM THE
CONSENSUS TRACK. ABOUT TWENTY PERCENT OF EC-EPS MEMBERS INDICATE A
TROUGH-ALTERED TRACK CLOSER TO OKINAWA, WHILE GEFS MEMBERS DO NOT
INDICATE DEVIATION FROM THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING LYING NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE, WITH MESOSCALE MODEL AND SHIPS
GUIDANCE INDICATING STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATES BUT SEVERAL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS TRIGGERING WITH HIGH ASSOCIATED PROBABILITIES
STARTING IMMEDIATELY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE EARLY ON GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
ENVIRONMENT AND MATCHES THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IN LATER TAUS.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

50 kt/996mb

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Hayabusa]

Finally s2k is back, latest news, 85 kt fcst peak of cat 4

01W EWINIAR 240526 1800 15.5N 122.5E WPAC 85 965

[cycloneye]

JMA.

2401(Ewiniar)
Issued at 2024/05/26 21:45 UTC
Analysis at 05/26 21 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°40′ (15.7°)
E122°35′ (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Finnally JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

[ElectricStorm]

First typhoon strength storm in the WPAC since Bolaven in early October, over 7 months!

[cycloneye]

Wow, it was fast to intensify and now is fast to go down.

[cycloneye]

T2401(Ewiniar)
Issued at 2024/05/27 12:45 UTC
Analysis at 05/27 12 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°40′ (16.7°)
E124°10′ (124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)

[MarioProtVI]

Wow, it was fast to intensify and now is fast to go down.

https://i.imgur.com/kTCt1l8.gif

Sneaky mid-level shear and apparently(?) downsloping will do that to a small core.

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 120 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TYPHOON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (GREATER
THAN 26 C) AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE WESTERN
PHILIPPINE SEA. NEAR TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD, INTRODUCING STRONG VWS (20-30
KTS), BEGINNING THE INITIAL STAGES OF A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
AFTER TAU 48 AND WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD, COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF 26N. BY
TAU 72, COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST, STARTING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
THROUGH TAU 120 AS VWS INCREASES ABOVE 30 KTS AND FURTHER SHEARS AWAY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, CAUSING THE VORTEX TO BECOME DECOUPLED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT TY 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120 AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTRODUCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
TRACK, CLOSER TO MAINLAND JAPAN, HOWEVER, THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED THAT TY 01W WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST WHILE UNDERGOING THE EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING
AT TAU 72. THE TAU 36 AND TAU 48 CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 80NM AND 100NM, RESPECTIVELY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE,
HOWEVER, JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE, GFS, ECMWF, AND COAMPS-TC FORECASTS
WEAKENING FROM TAU 36 UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/dost_pagasa/status/1795198626173739077

[cycloneye]

JMA at 65kt.

Issued at 2024/05/28 00:50 UTC
Analysis at 05/28 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°20′ (18.3°)
E125°25′ (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 35 km (20 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area SE220 km (120 NM)
NW110 km (60 NM)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/IPTCWC/status/1795505846698279004

[Hurricane2022]

This is the first of many busts that the WPAC will have in 2024.

Yo soy La Niña!!