WPAC: EWINIAR - Remnants

[Hayabusa]

00Z all make landfall

[Hayabusa]

Down to medium

WTPN21 PGTW 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421ZMAY2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 221430). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 134.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230855Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE BUT WEAK SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD AND LOOSELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL
GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SAMAR, PHILIPPINES AND MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/1793734768527630397

[cycloneye]

TCFA.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.9N 128.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240803Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), MODERATE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KT) AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RECURVES BACK OVER WATER
PAST TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 01W.

01W ONE 240524 1800 11.2N 125.5E WPAC 25 1004

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WP, 01, 2024052512, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1222E, 35, 998, TS

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 012024.dat

[cycloneye]

Still JMA has not upgraded to TS.

Issued at 2024/05/25 19:10 UTC
Analysis at 05/25 18 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°30′ (13.5°)
E121°10′ (121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[cycloneye]

Looks good. JMA should upgrade at 00z.

[cycloneye]

Pagasa upgraded to TS.

 https://x.com/dost_pagasa/status/1794473635606061361

[AJC3]

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/P102f4V.jpeg

We likely have a low-end typhoon here. Big L from JMA and JTWC
 https://x.com/135knots/status/1794497800371347513

[mrbagyo]

[Sciencerocks]

70-75 knt I'd say

[Hayabusa]

01W ONE 240526 0000 14.0N 121.4E WPAC 50 993

[zzzh]

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2401 EWINIAR (2401) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 14.0N 121.6E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎260000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2401 ‎EWINIAR ‎(2401) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎260000UTC ‎14.0N ‎121.6E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎1002HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎60NM
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎261200UTC ‎15.0N ‎122.3E ‎35NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNE ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎1000HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
24HF ‎ ‎270000UTC ‎16.3N ‎123.2E ‎50NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNE ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
48HF ‎ ‎280000UTC ‎19.4N ‎126.2E ‎85NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NE ‎11KT
PRES ‎ ‎985HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎055KT
GUST ‎ ‎080KT
72HF ‎ ‎290000UTC ‎23.9N ‎131.1E ‎140NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NE ‎16KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT
96HF ‎ ‎300000UTC ‎27.7N ‎135.6E ‎175NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NE ‎14KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT
120HF ‎310000UTC ‎31.7N ‎140.8E ‎215NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NE ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT ‎=

[zzzh]

Since when a microwave eye = low end typhoon/hurricane? Especially when you consider land friction in this case, JTWC's 50kt is very reasonable.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1794544008636871035

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WillWeatherRVA/status/1794556657365668183




 https://x.com/WillWeatherRVA/status/1794556662419755318