SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/20S)

[HURAKAN]

A weak tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the
Cobourg Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or
so before moving towards the south or southwest. The low may intensify further
later in the week if it remains over water.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Tuesday: Low.
Wednesday: Moderate.
Thursday: Moderate.

[HURAKAN]

tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the Cobourg
Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or so
before moving southwest into the Timor Sea. The low is expected to gradually
strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.
Friday: High.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Wednesday 30 March 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for the Tiwi
Islands.

At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 50 kilometres north northwest
of Croker Island and 215 kilometres east northeast of Snake Bay and is slow
moving.

There is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing during Friday as the
tropical low moves into the Timor Sea, west of the Tiwi Islands. GALES are not
expected at the Tiwi Islands within the next 24 hours but gales could develop
during Friday morning.

The Territory Controller advices communities under Watch that now is the time to
put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies and commence
home shelter preparations.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.7 degrees South 132.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Wednesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Extratropical94]

A developing Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, near 10.7S,
132.5E, about 50km north northwest of Croker Island, at 9:30am CST on 30 March,
slow moving. The low is expected to move towards the southwest into the TIMOR
SEA and is expected to gradually strengthen, possibly reaching cyclone intensity
on Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Thursday: Moderate.
Friday: High.
Saturday: High.

by the way, it's been given the number 25U, according to the western region outlook

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:39 pm CST Wednesday 30 March 2011

A Cyclone WATCH continues for the Tiwi Islands and coastal communities between
Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin.

At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 80 kilometres north of Cape
Don and 225 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and moving west at 6 kilometres
per hour.

There is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing during Friday as the
tropical low moves into the Timor Sea, west of the Tiwi Islands. GALES are not
expected on the coast within 24 hours. However, gales may develop on Friday
about the Tiwi islands, and may extend to the coast later on Friday between Cape
Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin, if the tropical low takes a more
southwest track.

The Territory Controller advises areas under Watch that now is the time to put
together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies and commence home
shelter preparations.

Residents in this Watch area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation
constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you
should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to
allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before
winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.6 degrees South 131.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 31 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1338 UTC 30/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 131.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [278 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar:
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0000: 10.8S 131.2E: 090 [165]: 020 [035]: 1000
+24: 31/1200: 11.3S 130.6E: 120 [220]: 025 [045]: 998
+36: 01/0000: 12.0S 129.8E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 01/1200: 12.7S 129.0E: 185 [345]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 02/0000: 13.6S 128.1E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 987
+72: 02/1200: 14.3S 126.7E: 280 [520]: 045 [085]: 990
REMARKS:
Tropical low has shown slight increase in convection and curvature in past 24
hours, though still remains relatively unorganised. Latest satpix shows a burst
of convection close to centre on NW flank, though centre position is difficult
to locate. Broad-scale environment is favourable with the 200 hPa ridge
overhead, deep moisture and a westerly wind surge to the north. A SE wind surge
associated with a low-level ridge to the south is forecast to interact with the
low during Thursday. Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest
and east, with a weak trough over central NT. Forecast track is southwest close
to or over the Tiwi Islands then into the Timor Sea where TC development is
possible on Friday or Saturday. In the longer term, the system is forecast to
move closer to the north Kimberley coast on Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 4:54 am CST Thursday 31 March 2011

A Cyclone WATCH continues for the Tiwi Islands and coastal communities between
Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin.

At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 130 kilometres northeast of
Snake Bay and 215 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and moving west at 5
kilometres per hour.

There is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing during Friday as the
tropical low moves into the Timor Sea, west of Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
GALES are not expected on the coast within 24 hours. However, gales may develop
during Friday about the Tiwi islands, and may extend to the coast later on
Friday or early on Saturday between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including
Darwin, if the tropical low takes a more southwest track.

The Territory Controller advises areas under Watch that now is the time to put
together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies and commence home
shelter preparations.

Residents in this Watch area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation
constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you
should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to
allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before
winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.6 degrees South 131.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 140 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Thursday 31 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2004 UTC 30/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 131.5E
Location Accuracy: within 75 nm [140 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar:
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 10.9S 131.0E: 105 [195]: 025 [045]: 1000
+24: 31/1800: 11.6S 130.2E: 135 [250]: 025 [045]: 1000
+36: 01/0600: 12.2S 129.4E: 170 [310]: 035 [065]: 995
+48: 01/1800: 12.9S 128.5E: 200 [370]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 02/0600: 13.6S 127.4E: 250 [460]: 050 [095]: 986
+72: 02/1800: 14.3S 125.7E: 295 [545]: 055 [100]: 984
REMARKS:
Position remains difficult to locate and is based on a combination of available
surface observations and persistence in motion. Animated IR imagery suggests a
mid-level centre located further west of the surface location, while radar
imagery suggests multiple vortices embedded within the larger circulation. ASCAT
pass at 1314Z depicts an elongated trough north of the Top End with a centre
north of the Cobourg Peninsula and the strongest winds well removed from the
system centre.

Current Dvorak intensity remains at T1.0. Still remains relatively unorganised.
Tropical low has shown slight increase in convection and curvature in past 24
hours, however is lacking deep convection near the system centre.

Broad-scale environment is relatively favourable for further intensification
located in deep moisture and a westerly wind surge to the north. A SE wind surge
associated with a low-level ridge to the south is forecast to interact with the
low during Thursday. Wind shear has increased over the system with CIMSS
estimate of about 20 knots, possibly a result of the 200 hPa ridge shifting just
south of the low level centre.

Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. Forecast track is southwest close to or over the
Tiwi Islands then into the Timor Sea In the longer term, the system is forecast
to move closer to the north Kimberley coast on Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0232 UTC 31/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 130.9E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 11.3S 130.3E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 1003
+24: 01/0000: 11.9S 129.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 1001
+36: 01/1200: 12.5S 128.9E: 155 [285]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 02/0000: 13.2S 128.0E: 185 [345]: 045 [085]: 993
+60: 02/1200: 13.8S 126.8E: 235 [430]: 040 [075]: 995
+72: 03/0000: 14.3S 125.4E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 999
REMARKS:
Convective structure has not changed very much overnight, with a dominant curved
band in the NE semicircle. A mid-level centre from radar is displaced NW of the
surface LLCC north of Melville Island. A westerly wind burst is evident to the
north, while strong winds have been reported by a ship to the westsouthwest of
Darwin.

Current Dvorak intensity is assessed at T1.5, with a monsoon low structure
evident. Although the broad-scale environment is favourable for development,
intensification of the system has been inhibited by a lack of persistenct
convection close to the LLCC and NE vertical wind shear. A forecast return to
standard development rate would suggest TC development is possible late Friday
or early Saturday over the Timor Sea.

Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. The ridge to the southwest is forecast to
strengthen producing a forecast track towards the southwest, with a location
close to the north Kimberley coast by Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Extratropical94]

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0805 UTC 31/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.2S
Longitude: 130.5E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1800: 11.7S 129.7E: 075 [140]: 025 [045]: 1003
+24: 01/0600: 12.3S 128.6E: 105 [195]: 030 [055]: 1001
+36: 01/1800: 13.0S 127.7E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 02/0600: 13.7S 126.3E: 170 [315]: 035 [065]: 999
+60: 02/1800: 14.2S 124.8E: 220 [405]: 040 [075]: 996
+72: 03/0600: 14.6S 123.5E: 265 [490]: 040 [075]: 995
REMARKS:
Convection has decreased diurnally around the low during the day apart from
persistent convection near the LLCC over and north of the Tiwi Islands. The
mid-level centre is evident on radar displaced W of the surface LLCC. A westerly
wind burst is evident to the north, while strong winds have been reported to the
southwest of the system.

Current Dvorak intensity is assessed at T1.5, with a broad monsoon low structure
evident. Although the environment is favourable for development, intensification
of the system has been inhibited by a lack of convection near the LLCC and
moderate NE vertical wind shear. A forecast return to standard development rate
would indicate TC development is possible early Saturday over the Timor Sea.

Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. The ridge to the southwest is forecast to
strengthen producing a forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to
the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Extratropical94]

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1343 UTC 31/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0000: 12.6S 129.7E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 1001
+24: 01/1200: 13.1S 128.6E: 105 [195]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 02/0000: 13.9S 127.3E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 999
+48: 02/1200: 14.5S 125.5E: 170 [315]: 040 [075]: 996
+60: 03/0000: 14.9S 124.0E: 220 [405]: 045 [085]: 993
+72: 03/1200: 15.4S 122.7E: 265 [490]: 045 [085]: 992
REMARKS:
Convection continued its diurnal variation with only a small area of deep
convection near the LLCC. Multiple circulations have been evident on radar over
the past 12 hours with a circulation between Darwin and the Tiwi Islands now
dominant. A westerly wind burst is evident to the north, while strong winds have
been reported to the southwest of the system.

Current Dvorak intensity is assessed at T1.5, with a broad monsoon low structure
evident. Although the environment is favourable for development, intensification
of the system has been inhibited by a lack of convection near the LLCC and
moderate NE vertical wind shear. A forecast return to standard development rate
would indicate TC development is possible early Saturday over the Timor Sea.

Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. The ridge to the southwest is forecast to
strengthen producing a forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to
the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Extratropical94]

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1959 UTC 31/03/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 130.4E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0600: 12.7S 129.3E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 999
+24: 01/1800: 13.4S 128.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 02/0600: 14.2S 126.8E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 992
+48: 02/1800: 14.5S 125.2E: 185 [345]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 03/0600: 15.0S 123.7E: 230 [430]: 045 [085]: 989
+72: 03/1800: 15.8S 122.5E: 280 [520]: 050 [095]: 986
REMARKS:
Circulation centre has been hard to locate, with possible multiple centres, and
a mid-level circulation associated with convection to the west of the Tiwi
Islands. Analysed centre has been located with radar feature west of the Cox
Peninsula, which is most consistent with surface observations.

There have been a number of convective blow-ups overnight in the Timor Sea,
including deep convection associated with the Cox Peninsula centre. Dvorak
analysis on this feature yields DT of 1.5 from 0.25 wrap curved band. MET/PT
agree. Environment remains suitable for development apart from moderate NW
vertical wind shear over the area, and expectation is for development at
standard rate, which would indicated TC development on Saturday morning over the
Timor Sea.

Mid-level steering is dominated by ridging to the southwest and east, with a
weak trough over central NT. The ridge to the southwest is forecast to
strengthen producing a forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to
the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Chacor]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Friday 1 April 2011

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for Western Australian coastal and island
areas from Mitchell Plateau to the WA/NT Border, including Kalumburu, Wyndham
and Kununurra.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island.
The Cyclone WATCH from Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory to the NT/WA
border has been cancelled.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 140 kilometres
west northwest of Darwin and 425 kilometres northeast of Kalumburu and moving
west at 10 kilometres per hour away from the coast. The tropical low is expected
to turn towards the southwest and develop into a tropical cyclone as it nears
the north Kimberley coast on Saturday morning.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Wyndham and Mitchell Plateau on Saturday morning and may extend inland to
Kununurra if the cyclone takes a more southerly track. Gales may extend further
west to Cockatoo Island during Sunday as the cyclone moves further southwest
along the northwest Kimberley coast.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Wyndham and Kalumburu on Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region during
Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities between kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including Mitchell Plateau, should start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:

.Centre located near...... 11.9 degrees South 129.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Friday 01 April [12:30 pm WST
Friday 01 April].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre