#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 27, 2011 11:45 am
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/1037 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
179.2E AT 270600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LLCC DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT REGION, IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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