#3 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 02, 2011 3:32 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S
109.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PULSING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. A 011022Z CORIOLIS IMAGE SHOWS GOOD
ORGANIZATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS, BUT A 011133Z AMSU DOESN'T SHOW
GOOD ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SUBJECT TO MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, BUT REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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