ATL: IRENE - Models
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gatorcane
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wow going to be a close call there Ivan....I could see it heading due north into South FL...or creeping NNW towards the panhandle or even North Central GOM if ridging gets there in time
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
gatorcane wrote:Ivanhater wrote:132 hours
Well that is a big weakness sitting over Florida right there, if this storm is vertically stacked it is going to hit that, a weak system can probably scoot by underneath though and move along with the building 700MB ridge. The ECMWF shows a similar pattern but has the system stronger, so it hits that weakness and moves into South Florida.
Its a close call, the weakness is there for sure but the trough isn't that deep and any slight change could lead to a totally different solution...
Small differences in track would make the difference between it getting lifted out at the first bite of the cherry or not.
I'm more inclined to believe the ECM track solely on its first 72hrs track and grasp on the system.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Ridging is a bit stronger compared to the 12z run...well see
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Michael
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lonelymike
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Ivanhater wrote:162 hours...emerging in the SE Gulf
lets see how the ridge builds back in could make a run for NOLA...
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Trough just isn't strong enough to lift the system out, a stronger hurricane could perhaps just about feel it enough to lift out but thats going to be a close call me feels!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Deepening at a good rate by 180hrs, probably in very good conditions as well...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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