ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not sold this will be a hurricane when it's in the Lesser Antilles. GFS is showing some rather unfavorable winds starting in 60-72 hours until about the 120 hour time frame. SHIPS reflects this as well. However, the next 60 hours will be a nice window for 91L to wrap up.

[Stephanie]

Hi-im new here.. id like to see what a recon flight will come up with-give the models a shot of info...right now thry are seeing

Welcome!

[SouthDadeFish]

Gulfstream will really help with regards to future intensity and short term track over the next 48-72hrs, I'm not sure it will make any difference with regards to the upper trough development 144hrs out though...

Well it will help them come into better agreement with how strong the ridge is, and I assume how much of it will erode. I think you're right about the long term implications though. That's why they're flying multiple Gulfstream flights

[KWT]

I'm not sold this will be a hurricane when it's in the Lesser Antilles. GFS is showing some rather unfavorable winds starting in 60-72 hours until about the 120 hour time frame. SHIPS reflects this as well. However, the next 60 hours will be a nice window for 91L to wrap up.

Thats quite interesting, the E.Caribbean is often a zone where shear can be a little higher, however I reckon it will be a hurricane by then, could be close to as hurricane anyway by 60hrs, once it does tighten up somewhat there won't be much stopping it IMO...

[ronjon]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011073018-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not sold this will be a hurricane when it's in the Lesser Antilles. GFS is showing some rather unfavorable winds starting in 60-72 hours until about the 120 hour time frame. SHIPS reflects this as well. However, the next 60 hours will be a nice window for 91L to wrap up.

Thats quite interesting, the E.Caribbean is often a zone where shear can be a little higher, however I reckon it will be a hurricane by then, could be close to as hurricane anyway by 60hrs, once it does tighten up somewhat there won't be much stopping it IMO...

SHIPS is forecasting around 15-20 knots of WSW shear in the 60-108 hour time frame. Tropical cyclones don't enjoy that, even hurricanes. Although if it does have an established eyewall by that time, I think it will at least be able to maintain intensity. That could be a real key down the road. While shear would be nice for our friends in the islands I don't want it to weaken it so much that the trough misses it...

[underthwx]

correct me please if im wrong...the gulfstream flight is a NOAA operation?....does the NHC start with advisories based on what they find?

[KWT]

HWRF gets upto 60kts by the NE caribbean, takes a little longer to get going but still becomes a hurricane in the end.

Heading towards the NW by the end of the run, though obviously the run doesn't really begin a true recurve due to the fact it doesn't run that far out.

[SouthDadeFish]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011073018-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Seems like the HWRF has been shifting a little more west each run. This one has it making landfall in the extreme NE Antilles and coming close to the Bahamas. I don't like the trend in the models...

[SouthFloridawx]

I will be willing to help at times as well. It's going to be a long week probably.

[KWT]

I think as Don showed, those shear forecasts should be taken with a rather massive pinch of salt this far out. Still shear in the E.Caribbean at this time of year isn't really unreasonable, so I can believe it!

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

72 hour TAB forecast -- in the islands

[HurricaneWarning92]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011073018-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Seems like the HWRF has been shifting a little more west each run. This one has it making landfall in the extreme NE Antilles and coming close to the Bahamas. I don't like the trend in the models...

yep, i see that too. could see a shift in models to the west as well then...

[Hylian Auree]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Prior to Don, the last time they did so was for Tomas 10. It's pretty much when a tropical cyclone has ostensibly formed and all they're waiting for is data or recon confirmation

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z GFDL develops quicker this time and has come into somewhat of a better agreement. Don't see how it can take the blow of Hispaniola so easily though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

I will be willing to help at times as well. It's going to be a long week probably.

Surely you can help.

[KWT]

dixiebreeze, that forecast is bad for PR and if you extrap that forecast again (which till 96hrs is probably not too bad) probably isn't great for Hispaniola, esp DR.

[SouthDadeFish]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

72 hour TAB forecast -- in the islands

The NHC track will most likely look very similar.

[KWT]

Also, I can probably help out, esp with some of the earlier recon that may fly, which I suspect they will do if this does threat PR/Hispaniola as a strong hurricane.

[HurricaneWarning92]

yeah i get ya. it should weaken a bit.