ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Janie2006]

TWC reporting 12 river/creek locations in western New England, NY, and NJ are at record flood levels. Cantore had quite a bit to say about the criticism of the media coverage during his last live shot. He looked really shaken to me, quite emotional about the ongoing flooding.

[ncbird]

we got ur back...i heard on the news last week i believe, powers crews from Texas were headin towards the region...stay safe[/quote]

Please send them here also. Just got an automated call back, estimate for power restored..... not until Thursday. I think our guys need some help.

[CrazyC83]

I have NEVER been in a storm like this, even an extratropical remnant, for this long.

[fogbreath]

Had flown in from NorCal on the redeye into OH so I could join my GF on a trip to a lakehouse on the MI-IN border. Along the OH and later IN Turnpikes, saw a few wolfpacks of power trucks headed eastbound.

We theorized they were headed to help you folks that have been pounded, and it looks like they have their work cut out for them.

As a side question, the fairly gusty winds we've been getting here in the SW MI-IN border area last couple days - is this related to the pressure gradient created by Irene or is it more of a localized phenomenon?

Sent from my SPH-M900

[WeatherLovingDoc]

If this has already made it to the forums, let me know and I will delete it. This is our own CATEGORY5 being interviewed yesterday.
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/on-air/as-seen-on/Wind__Rain_Pick_Up_in_Long_Branch__NJ__11_PM_Saturday_New_York-128544213.html

VERY NICE! GREAT JOB, FUTURE METEOROLOGISTS! WE'RE PROUD OF YOU AT STORM2K!

[Hogweed]

Gilboa Dam discharge rate into Schoharie Creek



Note that's a log scale. and now at 60,000 cubic feet per second.

whats the population no. potentially affected by this situation...and is the power on...is this info. getting out to those affected?

From streamed local tv reports it seems the power is off in most of the area but evacuation sirens are sounding constantly throughout the potential flood zone. The water level in the dam is said to be 8 feet over the top. Outflow feeds via Schoharie Creek into the Mohawk River which feeds into the Hudson. I think they said 50,000 homes at potential risk but it might have been 50,000 people. Schoharie County itself has a population of 33,000 according to Wikipedia.

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 282350
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE APPROACHING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...
...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ST. JOHNSBURY VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF MANASQUAN
INLET NEW JERSEY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING
NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL
CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE ON CAPE COD AT HATCH BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM CONNECTICUT THROUGH MAINE. THE HIGHEST
WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER PARTS OF BAYS AND INLETS.
NEAR THE COAST...THESE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND
USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...FROM
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[CrazyC83]

Category5 should be the AUTOMATIC member of the month for August.

[CrazyC83]

Environment Canada now calling it Post-Tropical Cyclone Irene. So next NHC advisory probably the last.

I do think NHC should continue advisories on post-tropical storms over or threatening land with at least 35 kt sustained winds though. HPC should only handle them if under 35 kt.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Dr. Forbes on TWC emphasizing the profound flooding on the northern east coast: northern NJ, New York, Western Conneticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, RI, and Vermont.

Irene continues to pack a punch even after she finally moves to the Canadian Maritimes through the volumes of water she has unleashed on the East Coast. But she's not over water any more! Best wishes to our Canadian friends. Stay safe.

[Stephanie]

If this has already made it to the forums, let me know and I will delete it. This is our own CATEGORY5 being interviewed yesterday.
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/on-air/as-seen-on/Wind__Rain_Pick_Up_in_Long_Branch__NJ__11_PM_Saturday_New_York-128544213.html

VERY NICE! GREAT JOB, FUTURE METEOROLOGISTS! WE'RE PROUD OF YOU AT STORM2K!

OMG!! I agree with the reporter "A" for this semester! Great job Anthony and Jeff!

[Tireman4]

OMG, they are interviewing Philadelphia Eagle fans now? What next, they win the Super Bowl? LOL. No, great to see our folks on television. Great job Anthony ( Cat 5)....You are making us proud...

[jinftl]

Not sure if folks are aware of what is happening in Vermont this evening - Irene's rains have caused catastrophic flooding and many communities are underwater. The National Guard had to rush into the city of Rutland around 5pm to begin rescusing folks stranded by flood waters. Reports are that one person so far has possibly been washed away by raging floodwaters.

From WCAX Burlington:

"An update now on Irene's impact in our region-- we have flash flooding across the state, power outages and at least one person is reported missing, swept away by floodwaters. The National Guard is headed to Rutland City which is seeing evacuations at this hour, and the Otter Creek there is at floodstage. Many communities in Southern Vermont are flooded; Brattleboro, Wilmington and Bennington are all underwater. The Whetstone Brook has flooded Flat Street near Sam's Department store.

Bill Hunt, the road supervisor in Wilmington, tells us Route 9 and 100 are completely impassable. He says residents are trapped in their homes because the east branch of the Deerfield River rose so quickly. He says it's worse than the flooding from the Hurricane of 1938."

Rescue this evening from flooded Rutland, VT:


Floodwaters reach homes in Rutland:


Flooding in downtown Rutland:

[CrazyC83]

Dr. Forbes on TWC emphasizing the profound flooding on the northern east coast: northern NJ, New York, Western Conneticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, RI, and Vermont.

Irene continues to pack a punch even after she finally moves to the Canadian Maritimes through the volumes of water she has unleashed on the East Coast. But she's not over water any more! Best wishes to our Canadian friends. Stay safe.

It seems the mountains and hills were hit the hardest, harder than the I-95 corridor. Hopefully it won't be as bad in eastern Canada tomorrow, but it might be before it goes back over water.

[rainstorm]

i lost power sat 11am. i am very lucky though. 1.2 million lost poer in va and they say it could be 2 weeks to get it all back. i got mine back a few minutes ago.

[Zarniwoop]

Reports are that this isn't just 100 year floods but all-time record keeping floods in Vermont. OBVIOUSLY, that's not official at this point and just a sound byte. But, it looks terrible.

I'm shocked by some of the videos. Heavy, heavy rain in mountains is a very bad thing when the ground can't hold any more water.

[CrazyC83]

Reports are that this isn't just 100 year floods but all-time record keeping floods in Vermont. OBVIOUSLY, that's not official at this point and just a sound byte. But, it looks terrible.

I'm shocked by some of the videos. Heavy, heavy rain in mountains is a very bad thing when the ground can't hold any more water.

It is the flood of record for the mountains, especially Vermont and SE New York. 500 year flood levels at least.

[fci]

It is sad to see the destruction from Irene.

It proves that it doesn't take a "Category" to be very dangerous, especially in areas that are not used to, or equipped; to handle tropical rains, surge and waves

[hurr123]

Before we close the books on Irene, I personally wanted to say what an outstanding job posters have done on this site. Great comments and analysis. Also, what an terriffic job done by the NHC. They nailed the path of this huge storm days in advance and also did a good job what intensity also. Kudos!!!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...IRENE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.3N 71.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF QUEBEC CITY QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER
NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR CANADA WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS FROM EASTERN
LONG ISLAND TO MAINE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 365 MILES...585 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
LOCATION-SPECIFIC STORM TIDE AND SURGE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINS ARE DIMINISHING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN ONE INCH.

WIND...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...COULD
STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
INCLUDING TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM IRENE...CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...
BEGINNING AT 5 AM EDT.


$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALSO...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED NOW THAT IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE...AND IRENE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
BAROCLINIC FORCING FOR THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/23...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE BEING STEERED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...AND
GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM IRENE...CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 AM EDT.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR ALL THE RECONNAISSANCE AND
SURVEILLANCE DATA COLLECTED DURING IRENE...AS WELL AS ALL THE LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES THAT CONDUCTED SPECIAL RADIOSONDE RELEASES
DURING THE PAST WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 45.3N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 29/1200Z 48.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/0000Z 52.7N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 56.0N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z 57.8N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0000Z 60.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 62.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 64.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART