ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

53 knots flight level...using a .85 reduction comes out to 45.05 knots on the surface, and SFMR readings confirm that (or possibly higher).

I have never seen anything like this before in the ALT.....

Claudette 2003 had high winds when it was a wave, Andrew barely had a LLC yet had 50-60kts aloft at one point I believe, so it can happen.

[northjaxpro]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

its the core that matters...regardless of size....if it crawls across the mountians it will knock it down....

Exactly Rock. If the system develops a tight inner core and if that inner core can somehow avoid the rugged terrain of the islands (Hispaniola and Cuba), the cyclone would have minimal disruption.

[wxman57]

I know that it's still way too early to tell, but does this system seem to be more of a Florida and East Coast concern. I know that we should never turn our back to the GOM, but is this looking more and more like a non-GOM visitor?

I don't see anything to bring it to SW LA or SE TX.

[calmbeforestorm1]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

its the core that matters...regardless of size....if it crawls across the mountians it will knock it down....

Georges took the meat of the DR and most of Cuba vertically and still was a hurricane in the keys. Size does matter.

[tolakram]

Note how the plane is heading right to a cluster of storms that might be over any LLC. I'm using an updated sat image that's not very old. Next batch will be very interesting.

[ozonepete]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

Thanks, but I'm not talking about the strength of the storm, I'm talking about the size of the circulation.
I realize that it will probably be knocked down to tropical storm strength if it goes over the islands, just curious though if a larger storm in size would fair better than a smaller one.

The size doesn't matter. As someone just said, if the core ghoes over the island, no matter the storm size or strength, it will get somewhat disrupted by P.R. but severely disrupted by Hispaniola.

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know. These obs seem to suggest we already have a TS if they find a west wind. 40-50 mph winds in the NE quadrant if I'm reading the obs right ...

[brunota2003]

but the wind direction is all wrong... SE to ESE winds where they are... but they are heading SW ..

SE winds would be on the NE side of the system, so you'd head SW to find the center.

[Lowpressure]

Note how the plane is heading right to a cluster of storms that might be over any LLC. I'm using an updated sat image that's not very old. Next batch will be very interesting.

With you on that. Recon will determine here pretty quickly.

[KWT]

I know that it's still way too early to tell, but does this system seem to be more of a Florida and East Coast concern. I know that we should never turn our back to the GOM, but is this looking more and more like a non-GOM visitor?

I don't see anything to bring it to SW LA or SE TX.

Yeah looks like a Hispaniola/Cuba threat to start with and then towards the SE states, where of course is a little far out to tell!

[psyclone]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

i would imagine it would be less disrupted. another important consideration is a large circulation probably increases the threat of prolonged torrential rain and flash flood/mudslide risks in those upslope/orographic enhancement zones of the greater antilles.

[cycloneye]

I don't know. These obs seem to suggest we already have a TS if they find a west wind. 40-50 mph winds in the NE quadrant if I'm reading the obs right ...

That is correct.Only a west wind needed to then be Irene.

[wxman57]

but the wind direction is all wrong... SE to ESE winds where they are... but they are heading SW ..

The wind direction looks right for where they are. Any LLC would be well southwest of there. Down around 14N. But I don't think it's closed off. Tropical waves can have 40-50 kt winds in squalls.

[Aric Dunn]

but the wind direction is all wrong... SE to ESE winds where they are... but they are heading SW ..

SE winds would be on the NE side of the system, so you'd head SW to find the center.

but the east winds they had before were off...

[Aric Dunn]

but the wind direction is all wrong... SE to ESE winds where they are... but they are heading SW ..

The wind direction looks right for where they are. Any LLC would be well southwest of there. Down around 14N.

well maybe I just read it wrong.. seemed odd where the east winds were at.

[Lowpressure]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

i would imagine it would be less disrupted. another important consideration is a large circulation probably increases the threat of prolonged torrential rain and flash flood/mudslide risks in those upslope/orographic enhancement zones of the greater antilles.

Core and structure matter more than size in most cases.

[brunota2003]

but the wind direction is all wrong... SE to ESE winds where they are... but they are heading SW ..

SE winds would be on the NE side of the system, so you'd head SW to find the center.

but the east winds they had before were off...

if there is a LLC, it could of been reforming

[westwind]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

Thanks, but I'm not talking about the strength of the storm, I'm talking about the size of the circulation.
I realize that it will probably be knocked down to tropical storm strength if it goes over the islands, just curious though if a larger storm in size would fair better than a smaller one.

I am not an expert by any means, but larger circulations are less suseptable to their environment so they strengthen and weaken less rapidly.
A larger circulation would likely be less effected by the islands than a smaller circulation of the same intensity- I think please correct me if i'm wrong.

[pricetag56]

what are the winds they look for to determine if its a closed low?

[Dave]

435
URNT15 KNHC 202043
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 24 20110820
203330 1519N 05658W 9589 00422 0066 +220 +071 128029 030 034 002 03
203400 1518N 05659W 9589 00421 0064 +223 +074 129025 027 033 000 00
203430 1516N 05700W 9596 00414 0064 +228 +075 131018 020 032 001 00
203500 1515N 05701W 9589 00422 0065 +224 +077 126013 015 030 001 00
203530 1514N 05702W 9594 00418 0066 +228 +078 125012 012 031 001 00
203600 1513N 05703W 9593 00420 0066 +229 +079 123014 015 030 001 00
203630 1512N 05705W 9593 00420 0067 +227 +080 124015 016 024 002 00
203700 1511N 05706W 9600 00414 0067 +228 +082 124016 017 025 001 00
203730 1510N 05707W 9593 00420 0067 +228 +083 122015 016 022 001 00
203800 1509N 05708W 9598 00415 0067 +227 +084 124016 016 023 001 00
203830 1507N 05709W 9595 00418 0067 +225 +085 123016 017 024 000 00
203900 1506N 05710W 9589 00422 0065 +226 +085 116016 017 024 001 00
203930 1505N 05712W 9594 00418 0066 +224 +084 110016 016 024 000 00
204000 1504N 05713W 9591 00420 0066 +225 +085 113017 017 022 000 00
204030 1503N 05714W 9600 00412 0064 +229 +085 126018 018 021 001 00
204100 1502N 05715W 9588 00422 0064 +225 +085 118018 019 023 001 03
204130 1501N 05716W 9597 00416 0064 +230 +085 126019 020 024 001 00
204200 1459N 05717W 9593 00418 0063 +229 +086 125019 021 024 000 00
204230 1458N 05718W 9593 00418 0064 +225 +086 114017 019 024 001 00
204300 1457N 05719W 9591 00418 0064 +223 +085 112017 018 024 002 00
$$
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