WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

#941 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:31 am

Winds are picking up yet again!

#942 Postby **somethingfunny** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:38 am

How huge is Muifa? It covers an entire 10°x10° box! Here's a comparison, fill Muifa in any box between 20°N and 30°N (I like to plop it in the Gulf)

#943 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:40 am

Muifa reminds me a lot of Hurricane Ike in structure.

Chacor · #944 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:41 am

Storm now 30 km NW of Kumejima, as of 40 minutes ago. Starting to move away now, and JMA has increased forward motion to 7 kt. Might finally start to clear out.

#945 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:46 am

Well I am off to bed I can barely keep my eyes open now..I am done..I am guessing we should be in Recovery when I wake up in the AM but we shall see. have a good night

Chacor · #946 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:46 am

Has power been taken out at Kadena? There have been no METARs for over a half hour.

#947 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:46 am

No Idea I know alot of epople have been losing power..I dont eve nsee Infidoll on here now..which means we are soon..

#948 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:51 am

wow I really have to go my spelling is starting to take a hit

#949 Postby **StormingB81** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:51 am

bye all

Chacor · #950 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:51 am

Good luck and stay safe tonight, Storming.

Chacor · #951 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:55 am

Down to 80 kt from JTWC at 1500, waiting for the discussion.

Chacor · #952 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:58 am

And here it is.

WDPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 45//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE WALL HAS ERODED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
AND NO LONGER DEPICTS AN EYE, BUT MAINTAINS TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 051115Z SSMIS 37H GHZ DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE
WITH SURROUNDING SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND IR IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 90 KNOTS. KADENA AB IS REPORTING A SURFACE
OBSERVATION OF 41 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 63 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. TY 11W MAINTAINS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 11W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND TURN MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER CHINA, WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 11W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES
INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TY 11W SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BECAUSE OF
LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASED OHC.
C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF IN THE GULF OF BOHAI AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WHICH WILL CAUSE FURTHER
WEAKENING. TY 11W WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN BEGINS TO SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL OVER CHINA,
NORTH OF THE GULF OF BOHAI, AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THIS FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH CONSENSUS.//

Chacor · #953 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:02 am

Okay, Kadena back and reporting METARs again.

RODN 051457Z AUTO 13049G69KT 1200 R23/0300V0550 RA BR VV001 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 14069/1456 SLPNO

Chacor · #954 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:05 am

Continues to look pretty severe over Okinawa; 50 mm/h slots in there.

Another high gust: SPECI RODN 051500Z AUTO 14051G79KT 0800 R23/0350V0550 RA FG VV001 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 15079/1458 SLPNO $

Chacor · #955 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:37 am

SPECI RODN 051529Z AUTO 14048G75KT 1200 R23/0350V0600 RA BR VV001 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 14082/1516 SLPNO $

Gusts are continuing to well over hurricane strength.

euro6208 · #956 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:40 am

probrably another 6 hours before the winds and rains die down...

Chacor · #957 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:59 am

METAR RODN 051555Z AUTO 14053G67KT 0800 R23/0200V0500 +RA FG VV001 25/25 RMK AO2 PK WND 14082/1516 SLPNO P0320 T02530253 $

81.3mm of rain in the last hour at Kadena!

Chacor · #958 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:00 am

euro6208 wrote:probrably another 6 hours before the winds and rains die down...

If it continues moving slowly, it could be much longer than that. Probably 6 hours until TCCOR 1R.

Infdidoll · #959 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:27 am

Completely lost Internet, but still have power! Man, this is a harsh storm! Some pretty horrific gusts! Please keep posting obs! You guys are my only source of info via my iPhone, right now, but think I'm going to have to try to get some sleep soon.

artist · #960 Postby **artist** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:57 am

here is the current radar for you -

WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

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