ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

This was Irene's estimated wind field at landfall as you can see the primary monitoring sites (in red) missed the strongest winds I still don't know why people try to use actual surface obs to gauge max winds in a cyclone after all they are over land at varying exposures and some are not 10m.

Also for most storms it is difficult to actually find measured sustained hurricane force winds I mean look at Dolly only one real sustained hurricane force measurement yet no one argues that was a hurricane (there are countless examples of this)

[Dave]

577
URNT15 KNHC 280335
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 45 20110828
032530 3720N 07340W 6966 02947 9791 +111 +107 188072 072 053 000 00
032600 3720N 07337W 6967 02946 9789 +115 +105 188071 071 052 001 00
032630 3720N 07335W 6969 02948 9799 +110 +105 187071 071 052 001 03
032700 3720N 07333W 6963 02961 9800 +112 +106 187070 070 052 000 00
032730 3720N 07331W 6963 02958 9801 +113 +106 189070 071 054 002 00
032800 3720N 07328W 6969 02958 9807 +110 +107 189068 069 054 000 00
032830 3720N 07326W 6965 02961 9815 +107 //// 189069 070 055 001 01
032900 3720N 07324W 6969 02964 9822 +104 //// 189071 073 054 001 01
032930 3720N 07321W 6963 02970 9826 +101 //// 190075 077 053 006 01
033000 3720N 07319W 6968 02965 9831 +101 //// 192076 077 054 002 01
033030 3720N 07317W 6969 02969 9827 +105 +105 192072 072 054 001 00
033100 3720N 07315W 6962 02974 9834 +100 //// 192074 077 054 001 01
033130 3720N 07313W 6967 02974 9845 +094 //// 191078 080 056 001 01
033200 3720N 07310W 6969 02976 9858 +085 //// 189082 082 054 001 01
033230 3720N 07308W 6965 02982 9864 +085 //// 189082 083 053 002 05
033300 3720N 07306W 6967 02981 9869 +084 //// 189084 085 056 001 01
033330 3720N 07304W 6967 02986 9874 +084 //// 189085 086 058 002 05
033400 3720N 07302W 6967 02992 9879 +082 //// 188086 087 055 000 05
033430 3720N 07300W 6967 02993 9879 +084 //// 188087 087 053 000 01
033500 3720N 07258W 6965 03002 9877 +089 +083 187087 089 051 000 03
$$
;

[Recurve]

@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Bands of rain that triggered tornado warnings in Philadelphia also dumped very heavy rain. Philly Int'l reported 1.12" in 39 minutes.

I'm in Philly, very heavy rain.... Nut jobs across the street partying in the streets. Lights flickering, no power outages, yet.

Thanks for the report KF. Stay safe! Hope the nutjobs there don't get electrocuted or have a tree dropped on them.

[brunota2003]

Good grief...I didn't say that I did or didn't think she was still a hurricane, just that I hadn't seen anything to support it, based off of flight level and dropsonde observations (and surface, as well).

Also, the 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (025mm). Even Tropical Storms can have massive impacts.

SFMR, FL, and 954mb says this is not a tropical storm.

Okay...the dropsonde dropped in the maximum wind band right after recon measured the 92 knot flight level winds only recorded 50 knot winds at the surface. Even using the 84 knot winds that were closest to the launch time of the sonde (within 10 seconds of each other) yields a reduction of 0.60 (using the 92 knot fl wind yields a reduction of 0.55). That would make the surface winds, based off the 92 knot flight level wind (and 0.60 reduction), 55 knots in that location. Systems are not based off of pressure, or even flight level winds, when surface obs say otherwise. The SFMR value of 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (25mm), that could of inflated the values.

[Dave]

[kf154]

@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Bands of rain that triggered tornado warnings in Philadelphia also dumped very heavy rain. Philly Int'l reported 1.12" in 39 minutes.

I'm in Philly, very heavy rain.... Nut jobs across the street partying in the streets. Lights flickering, no power outages, yet.

Thanks for the report KF. Stay safe! Hope the nutjobs there don't get electrocuted or have a tree dropped on them.

Luckily we are inner city... No trees, but I wished they'd go inside.

[TropicalWXMA]

Looks like Irene's eye has returned on IR imagery... It's very small but, is surrounding almost entirely by deepening convection. She's maintaining strength.

[maxintensity]

Good grief...I didn't say that I did or didn't think she was still a hurricane, just that I hadn't seen anything to support it, based off of flight level and dropsonde observations (and surface, as well).

Also, the 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (025mm). Even Tropical Storms can have massive impacts.

SFMR, FL, and 954mb says this is not a tropical storm.

Okay...the dropsonde dropped in the maximum wind band right after recon measured the 92 knot flight level winds only recorded 50 knot winds at the surface. Even using the 84 knot winds that were closest to the launch time of the sonde (within 10 seconds of each other) yields a reduction of 0.60 (using the 92 knot fl wind yields a reduction of 0.55). That would make the surface winds, based off the 92 knot flight level wind (and 0.60 reduction), 55 knots in that location. Systems are not based off of pressure, or even flight level winds, when surface obs say otherwise. The SFMR value of 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (25mm), that could of inflated the values.

Ok well how about this...the best hurricane scientists in the entire world say 80mph. I'll leave it at that.

[Dave]

458
URNT15 KNHC 280345
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 46 20110828
033530 3720N 07256W 6967 03001 9877 +091 +083 184083 085 048 001 00
033600 3720N 07254W 6965 03007 9882 +094 +082 184081 081 050 001 00
033630 3720N 07252W 6967 03009 9886 +093 +083 183083 084 051 001 00
033700 3720N 07250W 6963 03014 9898 +082 //// 183083 084 053 008 05
033730 3720N 07248W 6965 03014 //// +069 //// 187088 091 051 021 01
033800 3720N 07245W 6979 02994 //// +082 //// 191089 092 054 002 01
033830 3720N 07243W 6967 03012 9894 +091 //// 187088 089 056 001 01
033900 3720N 07241W 6966 03023 9897 +091 //// 187086 088 055 004 01
033930 3720N 07239W 6963 03024 9899 +091 +091 189087 088 055 001 03
034000 3720N 07237W 6967 03018 9903 +090 +083 191089 090 053 002 00
034030 3720N 07235W 6964 03026 9911 +086 +083 190088 090 056 000 00
034100 3720N 07233W 6967 03025 9911 +087 +077 190087 089 054 001 00
034130 3720N 07231W 6970 03024 9912 +090 +075 192090 091 052 001 03
034200 3720N 07229W 6967 03030 9899 +104 +074 190085 086 052 001 00
034230 3720N 07227W 6962 03040 9906 +101 +079 187082 084 051 000 00
034300 3719N 07225W 6966 03038 9916 +095 +090 186081 082 053 001 00
034330 3719N 07222W 6967 03041 9920 +093 +093 187080 081 053 000 00
034400 3719N 07220W 6965 03044 9924 +092 +088 188082 082 053 000 03
034430 3719N 07218W 6967 03043 9931 +091 +086 191082 083 054 001 03
034500 3719N 07216W 6966 03049 9934 +089 +085 191083 083 053 000 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[tina25]

Is it just me or is Irene booking it to the NE right now?

[Dave]

169
URNT15 KNHC 280355
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 47 20110828
034530 3719N 07214W 6963 03052 9942 +085 //// 191083 084 055 001 05
034600 3720N 07212W 6967 03065 9954 +087 //// 190083 084 /// /// 05
034630 3720N 07212W 6967 03065 9957 +085 +083 188081 083 /// /// 03
034700 3723N 07213W 6973 03051 9952 +086 +077 187078 079 /// /// 03
034730 3725N 07215W 6967 03049 9933 +094 +074 186081 082 056 000 03
034800 3727N 07216W 6962 03051 9929 +093 +072 184083 084 054 001 03
034830 3729N 07218W 6970 03037 9932 +087 +072 182081 083 054 001 00
034900 3732N 07220W 6960 03049 9923 +094 +074 181081 083 054 000 03
034930 3734N 07221W 6967 03042 9916 +099 +074 181083 084 056 001 03
035000 3736N 07223W 6969 03030 9909 +102 +073 181083 084 053 000 00
035030 3738N 07225W 6969 03035 9903 +104 +072 181082 083 054 000 00
035100 3741N 07226W 6968 03032 9904 +101 +073 180083 084 053 000 00
035130 3743N 07228W 6961 03038 9902 +100 +074 181085 086 053 000 00
035200 3745N 07229W 6970 03024 9903 +100 +075 180086 086 054 000 00
035230 3747N 07231W 6968 03023 9905 +096 +076 178085 085 054 000 00
035300 3750N 07233W 6960 03034 9909 +090 +075 174083 085 054 000 00
035330 3752N 07234W 6970 03018 9897 +098 +077 174081 083 054 000 00
035400 3754N 07236W 6966 03020 9892 +099 +079 174081 082 052 000 00
035430 3757N 07238W 6965 03017 9895 +093 +081 174081 082 052 000 03
035500 3759N 07239W 6970 03012 9895 +093 +082 172080 081 051 000 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

One thing for sure is Irene has brought many new faces to the Storm2k chats, which is cool!

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 280357
XXAA 78037 99373 70734 11673 99984 24415 16057 00643 ///// /////
92540 20607 18077 85268 17206 18081 70915 11001 19071 88999 77999
31313 09608 80329
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 23
62626 SPL 3743N07339W 0333 MBL WND 17566 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18078
983697 WL150 17057 084 REL 3734N07339W 032901 SPG 3743N07340W 033
314 =
XXBB 78038 99373 70734 11673 00984 24415 11850 17206 22781 14807
33764 15034 44728 11610 55709 12405 66697 10400
21212 00984 16057 11974 17553 22965 17069 33948 17567 44921 18079
55876 18080 66863 18083 77850 18081 88765 18090 99697 19071
31313 09608 80329
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 23
62626 SPL 3743N07339W 0333 MBL WND 17566 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18078
983697 WL150 17057 084 REL 3734N07339W 032901 SPG 3743N07340W 033
314 =
;

[tronbunny]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have to stop people from thinking it's "only a cat1 or TS" when they are at risk from downbursts, tornadoes and massive flooding for many more hours to come.
She's hours away from landfall again and the estimated landfall points have already been seriously floded. Then inland areas have people thinking the Wx reporters are "overreacting" when people are being killed things other than hurricane force winds.
Time to reasses the storm rating scales and criteria.

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 23

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 03:57Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 34
Observation Number: 23

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 3Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 37.3N 73.4W
Location: 118 miles (191 km) to the SE (130°) from Ocean City, MD, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
984mb (29.06 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 160° (from the SSE) 57 knots (66 mph)
1000mb -143m (-469 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 540m (1,772 ft) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 19.9°C (67.8°F) 180° (from the S) 77 knots (89 mph)
850mb 1,268m (4,160 ft) 17.2°C (63.0°F) 16.6°C (61.9°F) 180° (from the S) 81 knots (93 mph)
700mb 2,915m (9,564 ft) 11.0°C (51.8°F) 10.9°C (51.6°F) 190° (from the S) 71 knots (82 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 3:29Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 37.43N 73.39W
Splash Time: 3:33Z

Release Location: 37.34N 73.39W View map)
Release Time: 3:29:01Z

Splash Location: 37.43N 73.4W (
Splash Time: 3:33:14Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 175° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 66 knots (76 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 78 knots (90 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 983mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 57 knots (66 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
984mb (Surface) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F)
850mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) 16.6°C (61.9°F)
781mb 14.8°C (58.6°F) 14.1°C (57.4°F)
764mb 15.0°C (59.0°F) 11.6°C (52.9°F)
728mb 11.6°C (52.9°F) 10.6°C (51.1°F)
709mb 12.4°C (54.3°F) 11.9°C (53.4°F)
697mb 10.4°C (50.7°F) 10.4°C (50.7°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
984mb (Surface) 160° (from the SSE) 57 knots (66 mph)
974mb 175° (from the S) 53 knots (61 mph)
965mb 170° (from the S) 69 knots (79 mph)
948mb 175° (from the S) 67 knots (77 mph)
921mb 180° (from the S) 79 knots (91 mph)
876mb 180° (from the S) 80 knots (92 mph)
863mb 180° (from the S) 83 knots (96 mph)
850mb 180° (from the S) 81 knots (93 mph)
765mb 180° (from the S) 90 knots (104 mph)
697mb 190° (from the S) 71 knots (82 mph)


---



[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 280401
97779 03544 10379 72600 30400 17080 10088 /3980
RMK AF304 3409A IRENE OB 24
SWS = 52 KTS
;

[theweatherwatch]

Just to let you know I am going to be doing Video updates from the Maine Coast (Portland) tomorrow. I did my first one this afternoon and it can be found at the following link:

http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=5

[Mello1]

@BACOemergency
Emergency Management Police, Public Works receiving lots of calls for fallen trees, wires. http://ow.ly/6eFew ^EA

(Baltimore County)