Nope, I posted it here for those that don't understand well the HDOB's but want to know what the recon is finding so far.ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Nope, I posted it here for those that don't understand well the HDOB's but want to know what the recon is finding so far.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 250651
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 26 20111025
064130 1719N 08217W 6967 03174 //// +087 //// 164039 040 028 004 01
064200 1721N 08217W 6962 03182 //// +083 //// 162040 041 029 002 01
064230 1723N 08216W 6971 03173 //// +083 //// 159040 040 027 003 01
064300 1725N 08216W 6967 03176 //// +080 //// 158038 039 027 002 01
064330 1727N 08216W 6970 03173 //// +077 //// 156038 038 028 002 01
064400 1729N 08215W 6963 03180 //// +076 //// 153038 038 028 001 01
064430 1731N 08215W 6971 03171 //// +075 //// 148038 038 027 002 01
064500 1733N 08215W 6963 03183 //// +076 //// 144038 038 026 003 01
064530 1735N 08214W 6967 03176 //// +079 //// 141038 038 028 001 01
064600 1737N 08214W 6970 03172 //// +080 //// 142037 037 028 001 01
064630 1739N 08213W 6967 03179 //// +076 //// 141036 037 025 003 01
064700 1740N 08213W 6965 03181 //// +078 //// 142035 035 026 002 01
064730 1742N 08213W 6968 03178 //// +079 //// 139035 035 025 003 01
064800 1744N 08212W 6965 03184 //// +072 //// 133035 035 028 002 01
064830 1746N 08212W 6970 03179 //// +074 //// 134034 034 026 003 01
064900 1748N 08212W 6969 03179 //// +073 //// 132033 034 026 002 01
064930 1750N 08211W 6965 03183 //// +072 //// 133033 033 024 003 01
065000 1752N 08211W 6970 03178 //// +070 //// 134032 033 025 002 01
065030 1754N 08210W 6969 03177 //// +073 //// 134031 032 024 003 01
065100 1756N 08210W 6964 03187 //// +070 //// 133032 032 025 002 01
$$
URNT15 KNHC 250651
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 26 20111025
064130 1719N 08217W 6967 03174 //// +087 //// 164039 040 028 004 01
064200 1721N 08217W 6962 03182 //// +083 //// 162040 041 029 002 01
064230 1723N 08216W 6971 03173 //// +083 //// 159040 040 027 003 01
064300 1725N 08216W 6967 03176 //// +080 //// 158038 039 027 002 01
064330 1727N 08216W 6970 03173 //// +077 //// 156038 038 028 002 01
064400 1729N 08215W 6963 03180 //// +076 //// 153038 038 028 001 01
064430 1731N 08215W 6971 03171 //// +075 //// 148038 038 027 002 01
064500 1733N 08215W 6963 03183 //// +076 //// 144038 038 026 003 01
064530 1735N 08214W 6967 03176 //// +079 //// 141038 038 028 001 01
064600 1737N 08214W 6970 03172 //// +080 //// 142037 037 028 001 01
064630 1739N 08213W 6967 03179 //// +076 //// 141036 037 025 003 01
064700 1740N 08213W 6965 03181 //// +078 //// 142035 035 026 002 01
064730 1742N 08213W 6968 03178 //// +079 //// 139035 035 025 003 01
064800 1744N 08212W 6965 03184 //// +072 //// 133035 035 028 002 01
064830 1746N 08212W 6970 03179 //// +074 //// 134034 034 026 003 01
064900 1748N 08212W 6969 03179 //// +073 //// 132033 034 026 002 01
064930 1750N 08211W 6965 03183 //// +072 //// 133033 033 024 003 01
065000 1752N 08211W 6970 03178 //// +070 //// 134032 033 025 002 01
065030 1754N 08210W 6969 03177 //// +073 //// 134031 032 024 003 01
065100 1756N 08210W 6964 03187 //// +070 //// 133032 032 025 002 01
$$
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon
Ok I have to go this is my last observation but it seems that the data supports a 80 kt and maybe an 85 kt hurricane.
000
URNT15 KNHC 250701
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 27 20111025
065130 1758N 08210W 6967 03184 //// +070 //// 134032 032 025 002 01
065200 1800N 08209W 6967 03181 //// +073 //// 135030 031 026 002 01
065230 1801N 08209W 6966 03186 //// +075 //// 134031 032 023 003 01
065300 1803N 08209W 6970 03179 //// +080 //// 133032 032 025 002 01
065330 1805N 08208W 6965 03187 //// +082 //// 137032 032 025 002 01
065400 1807N 08208W 6965 03186 //// +083 //// 139032 033 025 002 01
065430 1809N 08208W 6969 03182 //// +077 //// 134032 034 022 003 01
065500 1811N 08207W 6971 03179 //// +079 //// 131033 034 023 002 01
065530 1813N 08207W 6963 03192 //// +077 //// 130033 033 025 003 01
065600 1815N 08206W 6966 03187 //// +077 //// 128032 032 024 003 01
065630 1817N 08206W 6966 03189 //// +078 //// 128032 033 025 002 01
065700 1818N 08206W 6966 03189 //// +079 //// 127032 032 025 001 01
065730 1820N 08205W 6969 03185 //// +084 //// 128033 034 024 002 01
065800 1822N 08205W 6967 03188 //// +085 //// 130034 034 024 002 01
065830 1824N 08205W 6970 03185 //// +084 //// 128033 033 022 002 01
065900 1826N 08204W 6962 03196 //// +085 //// 129033 034 021 003 01
065930 1828N 08204W 6967 03187 //// +081 //// 130032 033 023 001 01
070000 1830N 08204W 6970 03188 //// +080 //// 128034 034 024 002 01
070030 1832N 08203W 6963 03196 //// +081 //// 127034 034 022 003 05
070100 1833N 08204W 6962 03206 //// +085 //// 123033 034 /// /// 05
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 250701
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 27 20111025
065130 1758N 08210W 6967 03184 //// +070 //// 134032 032 025 002 01
065200 1800N 08209W 6967 03181 //// +073 //// 135030 031 026 002 01
065230 1801N 08209W 6966 03186 //// +075 //// 134031 032 023 003 01
065300 1803N 08209W 6970 03179 //// +080 //// 133032 032 025 002 01
065330 1805N 08208W 6965 03187 //// +082 //// 137032 032 025 002 01
065400 1807N 08208W 6965 03186 //// +083 //// 139032 033 025 002 01
065430 1809N 08208W 6969 03182 //// +077 //// 134032 034 022 003 01
065500 1811N 08207W 6971 03179 //// +079 //// 131033 034 023 002 01
065530 1813N 08207W 6963 03192 //// +077 //// 130033 033 025 003 01
065600 1815N 08206W 6966 03187 //// +077 //// 128032 032 024 003 01
065630 1817N 08206W 6966 03189 //// +078 //// 128032 033 025 002 01
065700 1818N 08206W 6966 03189 //// +079 //// 127032 032 025 001 01
065730 1820N 08205W 6969 03185 //// +084 //// 128033 034 024 002 01
065800 1822N 08205W 6967 03188 //// +085 //// 130034 034 024 002 01
065830 1824N 08205W 6970 03185 //// +084 //// 128033 033 022 002 01
065900 1826N 08204W 6962 03196 //// +085 //// 129033 034 021 003 01
065930 1828N 08204W 6967 03187 //// +081 //// 130032 033 023 001 01
070000 1830N 08204W 6970 03188 //// +080 //// 128034 034 024 002 01
070030 1832N 08203W 6963 03196 //// +081 //// 127034 034 022 003 05
070100 1833N 08204W 6962 03206 //// +085 //// 123033 034 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Evil Jeremy
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000
URNT15 KNHC 250741
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 31 20111025
073130 1720N 08332W 6975 02932 //// +150 //// 123013 017 033 005 05
073200 1719N 08333W 6959 02950 //// +152 //// 094004 007 023 003 01
073230 1717N 08334W 6979 02925 //// +159 //// 318003 005 023 004 01
073300 1715N 08334W 6959 02952 //// +155 //// 313012 018 028 004 01
073330 1714N 08335W 6969 02943 //// +143 //// 308022 023 037 004 01
073400 1712N 08336W 6968 02957 //// +142 //// 302040 044 059 005 05
073430 1711N 08337W 6954 02992 //// +131 //// 300056 058 070 008 05
073500 1710N 08338W 6998 02948 //// +114 //// 296067 070 083 013 05
073530 1709N 08339W 6946 03043 //// +080 //// 310072 078 078 026 01
073600 1707N 08340W 6971 03033 //// +097 //// 308072 074 074 020 01
073630 1706N 08342W 6972 03050 //// +100 //// 313070 073 062 007 01
073700 1705N 08343W 6968 03072 //// +110 //// 315062 063 057 002 01
073730 1704N 08344W 6967 03085 //// +111 //// 316058 058 055 003 01
073800 1703N 08346W 6966 03090 //// +104 //// 316058 059 054 004 01
073830 1702N 08347W 6967 03095 //// +104 //// 310053 055 053 004 01
073900 1701N 08348W 6971 03100 //// +101 //// 306051 053 054 005 01
073930 1659N 08349W 6968 03107 //// +094 //// 304050 051 054 005 01
074000 1658N 08351W 6965 03113 //// +089 //// 304047 049 052 007 01
074030 1657N 08352W 6966 03117 //// +080 //// 310052 056 050 007 01
074100 1656N 08353W 6962 03130 //// +094 //// 315057 058 050 007 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 250741
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 31 20111025
073130 1720N 08332W 6975 02932 //// +150 //// 123013 017 033 005 05
073200 1719N 08333W 6959 02950 //// +152 //// 094004 007 023 003 01
073230 1717N 08334W 6979 02925 //// +159 //// 318003 005 023 004 01
073300 1715N 08334W 6959 02952 //// +155 //// 313012 018 028 004 01
073330 1714N 08335W 6969 02943 //// +143 //// 308022 023 037 004 01
073400 1712N 08336W 6968 02957 //// +142 //// 302040 044 059 005 05
073430 1711N 08337W 6954 02992 //// +131 //// 300056 058 070 008 05
073500 1710N 08338W 6998 02948 //// +114 //// 296067 070 083 013 05
073530 1709N 08339W 6946 03043 //// +080 //// 310072 078 078 026 01
073600 1707N 08340W 6971 03033 //// +097 //// 308072 074 074 020 01
073630 1706N 08342W 6972 03050 //// +100 //// 313070 073 062 007 01
073700 1705N 08343W 6968 03072 //// +110 //// 315062 063 057 002 01
073730 1704N 08344W 6967 03085 //// +111 //// 316058 058 055 003 01
073800 1703N 08346W 6966 03090 //// +104 //// 316058 059 054 004 01
073830 1702N 08347W 6967 03095 //// +104 //// 310053 055 053 004 01
073900 1701N 08348W 6971 03100 //// +101 //// 306051 053 054 005 01
073930 1659N 08349W 6968 03107 //// +094 //// 304050 051 054 005 01
074000 1658N 08351W 6965 03113 //// +089 //// 304047 049 052 007 01
074030 1657N 08352W 6966 03117 //// +080 //// 310052 056 050 007 01
074100 1656N 08353W 6962 03130 //// +094 //// 315057 058 050 007 01
$$
;
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Evil Jeremy
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Evil Jeremy
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000
URNT12 KNHC 250744
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/07:32:10Z
B. 17 deg 18 min N
083 deg 33 min W
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 82 kt
E. 028 deg 6 nm
F. 115 deg 88 kt
G. 030 deg 8 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 8 C / 3062 m
J. 16 C / 3056 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0318A RINA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 88 KT NE QUAD 07:29:40Z
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 250751
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 32 20111025
074130 1655N 08355W 6964 03134 //// +087 //// 313052 054 046 005 01
074200 1654N 08356W 6964 03132 //// +080 //// 316052 052 044 006 01
074230 1652N 08357W 6970 03127 //// +074 //// 314050 051 042 005 01
074300 1651N 08358W 6965 03135 //// +075 //// 316047 049 042 007 01
074330 1650N 08400W 6967 03137 //// +076 //// 314044 045 042 007 01
074400 1649N 08401W 6965 03141 //// +077 //// 318050 053 041 008 01
074430 1648N 08402W 6967 03139 //// +076 //// 321057 059 040 009 01
074500 1646N 08404W 6970 03138 //// +081 //// 323058 059 040 009 01
074530 1645N 08405W 6960 03153 //// +073 //// 327057 059 039 010 01
074600 1644N 08407W 6971 03140 //// +066 //// 331055 056 040 010 01
074630 1643N 08408W 6966 03151 //// +069 //// 332057 058 040 009 01
074700 1641N 08409W 6963 03153 //// +070 //// 332056 058 039 009 01
074730 1640N 08411W 6965 03155 //// +064 //// 334052 053 039 009 01
074800 1639N 08412W 6970 03149 //// +058 //// 335050 053 040 010 05
074830 1638N 08414W 6970 03151 //// +066 //// 331043 046 048 012 01
074900 1636N 08415W 6963 03160 //// +070 //// 334051 053 045 010 01
074930 1635N 08416W 6966 03159 //// +062 //// 332048 049 047 015 01
075000 1634N 08418W 6972 03155 //// +051 //// 330049 052 046 019 01
075030 1633N 08419W 6959 03172 //// +058 //// 329044 045 044 013 01
075100 1631N 08421W 6967 03165 //// +061 //// 330044 046 040 009 01
$$
URNT12 KNHC 250744
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/07:32:10Z
B. 17 deg 18 min N
083 deg 33 min W
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 82 kt
E. 028 deg 6 nm
F. 115 deg 88 kt
G. 030 deg 8 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 8 C / 3062 m
J. 16 C / 3056 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0318A RINA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 88 KT NE QUAD 07:29:40Z
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 250751
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 32 20111025
074130 1655N 08355W 6964 03134 //// +087 //// 313052 054 046 005 01
074200 1654N 08356W 6964 03132 //// +080 //// 316052 052 044 006 01
074230 1652N 08357W 6970 03127 //// +074 //// 314050 051 042 005 01
074300 1651N 08358W 6965 03135 //// +075 //// 316047 049 042 007 01
074330 1650N 08400W 6967 03137 //// +076 //// 314044 045 042 007 01
074400 1649N 08401W 6965 03141 //// +077 //// 318050 053 041 008 01
074430 1648N 08402W 6967 03139 //// +076 //// 321057 059 040 009 01
074500 1646N 08404W 6970 03138 //// +081 //// 323058 059 040 009 01
074530 1645N 08405W 6960 03153 //// +073 //// 327057 059 039 010 01
074600 1644N 08407W 6971 03140 //// +066 //// 331055 056 040 010 01
074630 1643N 08408W 6966 03151 //// +069 //// 332057 058 040 009 01
074700 1641N 08409W 6963 03153 //// +070 //// 332056 058 039 009 01
074730 1640N 08411W 6965 03155 //// +064 //// 334052 053 039 009 01
074800 1639N 08412W 6970 03149 //// +058 //// 335050 053 040 010 05
074830 1638N 08414W 6970 03151 //// +066 //// 331043 046 048 012 01
074900 1636N 08415W 6963 03160 //// +070 //// 334051 053 045 010 01
074930 1635N 08416W 6966 03159 //// +062 //// 332048 049 047 015 01
075000 1634N 08418W 6972 03155 //// +051 //// 330049 052 046 019 01
075030 1633N 08419W 6959 03172 //// +058 //// 329044 045 044 013 01
075100 1631N 08421W 6967 03165 //// +061 //// 330044 046 040 009 01
$$
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wzrgirl1
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Yep cat. 2. Could be on it's way to a major later today. gulp 
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Evil Jeremy
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Advisory should be out any moment. I'm sure the NHC is waiting for the next set of recon observations, which will include another center pass...
EDIT: Recon just passed through center, new top observed wind is 89 knots. Lets see what the NHC does.
EDIT 2: New advisory rolling now:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
100MPH Cat. 2 time.
EDIT: Recon just passed through center, new top observed wind is 89 knots. Lets see what the NHC does.
EDIT 2: New advisory rolling now:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
100MPH Cat. 2 time.
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Evil Jeremy
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Center pass data set:
000
URNT15 KNHC 250841
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 37 20111025
083130 1712N 08335W 6967 02952 //// +147 //// 268040 044 047 005 01
083200 1714N 08335W 6966 02945 //// +162 //// 261023 028 035 006 01
083230 1715N 08335W 6962 02941 //// +163 //// 233009 013 022 005 05
083300 1717N 08336W 6973 02927 //// +170 //// 053004 008 017 004 05
083330 1719N 08337W 6963 02939 //// +162 //// 056014 017 017 004 05
083400 1720N 08338W 6974 02924 //// +153 //// 048023 026 035 005 01
083430 1721N 08340W 6963 02946 //// +143 //// 056031 033 048 005 01
083500 1723N 08341W 6977 02943 //// +123 //// 050042 047 068 006 01
083530 1724N 08342W 6962 02976 //// +105 //// 055061 072 083 014 01
083600 1725N 08344W 6953 03022 //// +069 //// 064086 089 084 016 01
083630 1727N 08345W 7002 02989 //// +058 //// 055085 087 077 041 05
083700 1728N 08346W 6958 03059 //// +056 //// 057078 081 064 039 01
083730 1729N 08348W 6959 03076 //// +056 //// 056074 075 065 035 05
083800 1730N 08349W 6974 03074 //// +050 //// 050072 074 058 022 01
083830 1732N 08350W 6961 03100 //// +048 //// 050068 070 054 016 01
083900 1733N 08352W 6965 03103 //// +049 //// 051069 070 052 012 01
083930 1734N 08353W 6970 03102 //// +063 //// 056065 068 053 016 01
084000 1735N 08354W 6953 03134 //// +050 //// 060060 062 055 021 01
084030 1737N 08356W 6980 03100 //// +054 //// 053060 065 056 019 01
084100 1738N 08357W 6964 03125 //// +051 //// 058062 064 055 025 01
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 250841
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 37 20111025
083130 1712N 08335W 6967 02952 //// +147 //// 268040 044 047 005 01
083200 1714N 08335W 6966 02945 //// +162 //// 261023 028 035 006 01
083230 1715N 08335W 6962 02941 //// +163 //// 233009 013 022 005 05
083300 1717N 08336W 6973 02927 //// +170 //// 053004 008 017 004 05
083330 1719N 08337W 6963 02939 //// +162 //// 056014 017 017 004 05
083400 1720N 08338W 6974 02924 //// +153 //// 048023 026 035 005 01
083430 1721N 08340W 6963 02946 //// +143 //// 056031 033 048 005 01
083500 1723N 08341W 6977 02943 //// +123 //// 050042 047 068 006 01
083530 1724N 08342W 6962 02976 //// +105 //// 055061 072 083 014 01
083600 1725N 08344W 6953 03022 //// +069 //// 064086 089 084 016 01
083630 1727N 08345W 7002 02989 //// +058 //// 055085 087 077 041 05
083700 1728N 08346W 6958 03059 //// +056 //// 057078 081 064 039 01
083730 1729N 08348W 6959 03076 //// +056 //// 056074 075 065 035 05
083800 1730N 08349W 6974 03074 //// +050 //// 050072 074 058 022 01
083830 1732N 08350W 6961 03100 //// +048 //// 050068 070 054 016 01
083900 1733N 08352W 6965 03103 //// +049 //// 051069 070 052 012 01
083930 1734N 08353W 6970 03102 //// +063 //// 056065 068 053 016 01
084000 1735N 08354W 6953 03134 //// +050 //// 060060 062 055 021 01
084030 1737N 08356W 6980 03100 //// +054 //// 053060 065 056 019 01
084100 1738N 08357W 6964 03125 //// +051 //// 058062 064 055 025 01
$$
;
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wzrgirl1
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Can you send the link for the whole advisory please? Thanks!
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HurricaneWarning92
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Is it me or she grew larger in size?
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models
6z gfs still initializing this as a 1004mb low. Ends up with a weak TS near Key West.
But, the 4 day 500mb loop has a great depiction of her getting picked up by the trough http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
But, the 4 day 500mb loop has a great depiction of her getting picked up by the trough http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon isn't showing much movement yet, only about 15 minutes further north and 26 minutes further west than 5PM yesterday. If you look at the long WV imagery you might notice the upper level high in the Caribbean has been migrating west. That is not a good thing since it feeds warm moist air to Rina from the south and might provide some northerly steering if the trend continues.
The current trough is still providing a good outflow channel and none of that dry air up in the gulf has been able to intrude. With a major hurricane in place the evolution of the upper air pattern would be a little different, might shift the upper level steering a little bit. The models that show a southeast movement must not keep that Caribbean high pressure circulation.
The current trough is still providing a good outflow channel and none of that dry air up in the gulf has been able to intrude. With a major hurricane in place the evolution of the upper air pattern would be a little different, might shift the upper level steering a little bit. The models that show a southeast movement must not keep that Caribbean high pressure circulation.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
RINA IS MAINTAINING A RATHER SYMMETRICAL CDO FEATURE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A MASS OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...BUT
AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED MEASURED
BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 84 KT...THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 89
KT...AND A GPS DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL
SUPPORTED A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF AT LEAST 82 KT. THE AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS MORE EFFECTIVE THAN USUAL IN
TRANSPORTING STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. RINA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE WATERS OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY UNTIL INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HALTS THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALBEIT A
LITTLE LOWER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS RINA
DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.
AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY OR ABOUT 290/3. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE WEAK
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF RINA WILL
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY
DAYS 4-5 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD...BUT SINCE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY RESPOND TO
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST AS WELL AS TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL MAINTAINS
RINA AS A HURRICANE AND SHOWS A MUCH FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
SINCE THIS IS NOW THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOWING SUCH BEHAVIOR...
IT IS AN OUTLIER THAT IS BEING DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 17.3N 83.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.4N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.3N 86.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 22.5N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
RINA IS MAINTAINING A RATHER SYMMETRICAL CDO FEATURE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A MASS OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...BUT
AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED MEASURED
BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 84 KT...THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 89
KT...AND A GPS DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL
SUPPORTED A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF AT LEAST 82 KT. THE AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS MORE EFFECTIVE THAN USUAL IN
TRANSPORTING STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. RINA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE WATERS OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY UNTIL INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HALTS THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALBEIT A
LITTLE LOWER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS RINA
DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.
AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY OR ABOUT 290/3. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE WEAK
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF RINA WILL
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY
DAYS 4-5 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD...BUT SINCE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY RESPOND TO
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST AS WELL AS TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL MAINTAINS
RINA AS A HURRICANE AND SHOWS A MUCH FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
SINCE THIS IS NOW THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOWING SUCH BEHAVIOR...
IT IS AN OUTLIER THAT IS BEING DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 17.3N 83.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.4N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.3N 86.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 22.5N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
...RINA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
AND HURRICANE WATCH AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011
...RINA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREAS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
AND HURRICANE WATCH AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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