ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[jinftl]

[CrazyC83]

Increase the intensity at 11? Although no data supports Cat 4 now, maybe 110 kt per ADT?

[bexar]

can she pull an upset? making it to a Cat 4 hurricane?

[Caribwxgirl]

I am still in shock over this total come back or is it better back cause she was nowhere near this in her genesis

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE EYE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME WARMER
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL STAYING DEEP. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM 102-112 KT...SO
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOUT THE SAME VALUES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE
THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING
WATER TEMPERATURES. AFTER DAY 2...A COMBINATION OF VERY COLD WATERS
AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID WEAKENING OF OPHELIA AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A BAROCLINIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
STEERING CURRENTS BECOME STRONGER BETWEEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING OPHELIA COMING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST BEYOND 36 HOURS. FUTURE LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT HAVE
TO BE MADE BECAUSE THE NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 26.2N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 32.4N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 37.2N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

At this rate, it will probably reach the buoy around 5 am. That advisory should have excellent data.

[AJC3]

At this rate, it will probably reach the buoy around 5 am. That advisory should have excellent data.

Peak wind speeds will likely be under-reported, since the buoy will be spending half it's time in the troughs of what could be mountainous waves.

[jinftl]

Wind gusts approaching 50kts...58mph...at buoy

[lilybeth]

Those photos are incredible. The eye is amazing.

[psyclone]

nice to see the atlantic finally crank out a beauty of a storm.

[AJC3]

Buoy is entering the north eye wall. Eye is going to pass directly over it.

[AJC3]

[AJC3]

Wow!

[dwsqos2]

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0739 83.5 kts E ( 90 deg true )

Yeah, the pressure at that buoy hit 952 mb with far from calm winds. Considering that a peak one-minute wind of 83.5 knots was measured in the northern eyewall of storm moving to the north at ~15 knots (RFQ would be E quad.), I have little doubt that Ophelia is a major hurricane.

It's worth noting that the anemometer height of that buoy is 5 meters ASL.

[AJC3]

Bullseye!

[jinftl]

From 5am Advisory:

THE EYE OF OPHELIA RECENTLY PASSED DIRECTLY OVER
NOAA BUOY 41049...AND THE BUOY REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND
OF 96 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH A PEAK GUST TO 116 MPH...187 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES...BASED ON
REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE EYE.



40ft waves at the buoy!!!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD HEADING WITH 120 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. OPHELIA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. ON THIS TRACK THE
THE CORE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN
ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

I sure wouldn't want to be sitting on that buoy! That acted like a Recon plane last night! The winds were less than 10 kt during that peak recording, a tad less than 952mb, so the pressure was probably 951mb when Ophelia went right over it. It may be lower now.

[jinftl]

Another great piece of data captured by the buoy....40 foot waves will churn the ocean up (an understatement) and bring cooler water from below to the surface...you can see the drop in SST as the eye approached, moved over, and moved on

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

OPHELIA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A CLEAR EYE
SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH BOTH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...THEY
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS
STILL EMBEDDED IN LIGHT SHEAR AND MOVING OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA
REACHES COOLER WATERS...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IS VERY
CONSISTENT AT LEAST TO 48 HOURS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 29.5N 62.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 32.5N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 42.0N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 46.5N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 50.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA